Catching Up/More on Irish Voodoo

Well, another football weekend is upon us, and I am still not up to date. Last weekend I almost took the Colts and gave 14 against the Browns, but after checking Cleveland's stats, decided that so far they were a bit better than they were given credit for. Trent Dilfer was (is?) near the top of the NFL in QB efficiency, and while the Colts had done very well in terms of points allowed the Browns were among the leaders in yardage allowed. Add to that the fact that the Colt offense has been rather un-Colt-like so far this season. While their offense is probably due to explode any time now, predicting when it will explode is not as easy as predicting that it inevitably will. If I am going to try to time something like this I would prefer to see more weakness on the other side of the ball. While I probably shouldn't get too excited about my "non picks," Cleveland lost, but covered, 13-6.

My only pick last week was Notre Dame, giving 12 over Washington, and the Fighting Irish came through, 36-17. While I don't recall the line or the final score, I also won taking the Irish in that matchup last year. Last year Washington was awful, and I thought that was one of my easiest picks all year. This year I think that while they are improving and that Ty Willingham will prove to be a nice coaching upgrade, the Irish are also better, and it is looking more than fair to call Charlie Weis an offensive genius.

On to this week. If you read my 10Sept post, you may recall my theory of the Irish voodoo doll. There I explain how Notre Dame enhances their extrordinary luck by torturing a doll dressed up as a replica of their rivals' mascots. While they ultimately came up short against Michigan State, their secret torture of a Spartan doll just may have led to their unexpected 21(!) point comeback that game. Unexpected? I am confident that I am not alone among Spartan fans in totally expecting that comeback. I've seen it too many times. Then again I also am deeply suspicious that Notre Dame has been utilizing black magic against their opponets for years, so what the heck?

Which brings us to Purdue. Notre Dame's opponent this weekend, Purdue's mascot is perhaps best known as "a beer and a shot," (no wonder the "Fighting Irish" play them every year!) but their "Boilermaker is depicted as a large stupid looking man with a mallet--easy fodder for the Irish voodoo doll. Dress him in gold with a funny had, give him a hammer, and let the floggings and stabbings begin!

But as I mentioned a few weeks ago Notre Dame risks karmic retribution if they resort to the black arts too often. Whle they are a three point road underdog in their game this week, I expect the doll to remain unmolested in it's tomb, as Charlie Weis gives the Irish all the magic they need. Enough talk about the "Luck o' the Irish." The Spoilermakers have their own reputation for luck, and while a favorite should not be considered a spoiler when they win, I will not consider the Irish to be spoilers when they win at Purdue either, though I expect to be impressed by their fourth straight road win. While Purdue easily handled Notre Dame last year, their losing Kyle Orton coupled with their rivals' gaining Charlie Weis will lead to a good dose of Irish revenge. I suspect that more voodoo was involved in getting Notre Dame bye weeks prior to their matchps with USC and Tennessee this year. Did voodoo get them these teams (as well as what turned out to be a tough Spartan squad) at home, you ask? No, they alternate home and road games, silly!

Enough about the battle of Indiana--(forget the Hoosiers--by the time they finish against Purdue their 4-0 start will be a distant memory) on to the rest of this weeks picks:

virginiatech(-9)WESTVIRGINIA
arkansasstate(-3)LOUISIANA-MONROE
AUBURN(-14.5)southcarolina
notredame(+3)PURDUE
LOUISVILLE(-38.5)floridaatlantic

My picks are listed first. Home teams are in caps. Had I acted sooner, I would have had to give ten with Virginia Tech. Hopefully this point will be worth something, and the extra half-points I am giving up with Auburn and Louisville won't burn me. I was also considering taking BOSTONCOLLEGE(-38)over ballstate, but I'm not convinced BC will put enough points on the board with their backup QB, though his numbers so far aren't bad. Ball State, Louisiana-Monroe and Florida Atlantic are all awful teams and are featured in ESPN's "Bottom 10." So far this seems to be a good place to look for tams to bet against--see my non-picks from two weeks ago. Arkansas State was in the Bottom 10, but has posted a couple of nice wins, (56-7 over UT-Martin, and 66-24 over Florida International) so I suspect they can handle giving 3 on the road. Perhaps I'm naive, but how big is home-field in these games? Do people actually attend them? If they do, do they pay attention to the game, or just hunker down for a weekend of binge-tailgaiting (or is it tailgate-bingeing?)? My interest in the Sun Belt Conference does not really extend beyond handicapping opportunities, and I am fairly ignorant about these teams (as evidenced by my North Texas pick two weeks ago), but if there are any actual fans of these teams reading this blog I would love to hear from you.

Let me know about any dodo bird siteings as well--

Meanwhile, the big game I'm NOT picking, MSU(-6)umich started as a 4 point spread and moved to 5.5 within 24 hours. Within the last day or so the line moved to six. What does this mean? Well, obviously most of the money has been coming in on the good guys--(me:BA MSU '93) but to the deeply superstitious mind of a Spartan alum, it looks like we are being set up for a fall. I'm used to us playing the spoiler in this game, and I fear that the Wolverines will find themselves all to comfortable in this less-familiar role. Check how many Ohio State seasons they have ruined. (And I'm talking 10-0 Buckeye teams, not 4-0 teams.) As someone who has bled a fair amount of green, I remain humble, as well as deeply superstitious.
--LATER.

MSU beats ND!!! HaHaHaHa!!!/Why I've been talking Football instead of Poker Lately

Well, we're halfway into a weekend of football, and my teams are 1-1. Michigan State beat Notre Dame 44-41(OT), after allowing a ridiculous comeback, and Boston College blew their lead and lost 28-17 to Florida State. My teams were outscored 0-28 in the fourth quarter

I'm not talking about games I actually bet on, those are just the colleges I attended.

You see, I didn't bet on ANY games for this weekend.

Take that, you twelve-step bastards! I AM NOT AN ADDICT!! AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

Where was I?

Well, the last couple of years my interest in sports betting has spiked in the autumn, not just because of football season, but because I have to go to the field for several weeks. You see, I am stationed in Korea, in the U.S. Army. Between Winter and the rainy season (a.k.a. Summer) are the only months with good weather for training. While my job permits me frequent access to a computer, as well as semi-frequent trips to the rear, DOD computers do not allow gambling, so no poker.

That is why I dedicate myself to handicapping the NCAA & NFL. All I need to place a bet online is a quick trip to the rear. I can research my bets while in the field--or at least meditate on them. Meanwhile my poker languishes. While we are languishing, let me add that I have only played poker online for two years now, so my brick and mortar poker has languished as well. I previously refrained from telling anything personal about myself because I really do not want this blog to have anything to do with the military. Since my blog has pretty much exclusively discussed football handicapping at the expense of poker, however, I figure I owe all 3 of my readers an explanation.

That was my explanation.

Yeah, that's it.

What do you want? My Blood???

How about a stool sample? Fingerprints? Psych Evaluations? What?!?!?!

Meanwhile, several games transpired which I was considering betting on. Vanderbilt came through against Ole Miss, 31-23, covering the 3.5 point spread, Wake Forest beat East Carolina 44-34, failing to cover as 13.5 point favorites, Cal failed to cover the number (21.5) vs. Illinois, winning 35-20, Wisconsin beat North Carolina and the number(3.5), 14-5, Arizona State, a 15 point favorite, handled Northwestern, 52-21, Auburn manhandled Ball State 63-3, easily covering the 37.5, while North Texas, a 4-5.5 point favorite vs. Tulsa, managed to lose 54-2! So the teams I earlier expressed interest in went 5-3, despite the North Texas loss, easily the worst pick I've ever made. Arguably the most accurate pick I made was a non-pick, as I was considering going either way on GATECH(-14.5 to -17) uconn, and Tech won 28-13, middling the lines--though mostly I think UConn covered, as I only saw the 14.5 spread once.

Before I say another word, lelt me just sy thata LG International keyboards SUCK! The keys either don't typ unless you trikee them hard, or they ddouble strike? I hahavee been spending much mmore ime editiing than actually writing. See what I mean? I do't think I'll be blgging mmuch more until I get anoother keyboarrd. This thing reall SUCKS ASS!

Post-weekend Football Update, etc.

Well, the 1st half of the MNF game is winding down, and I'm not crazy about my Philly pick right now. Atlanta has the lead (14-7) the ball, and the Eagles running game has been stuffed so far. Things are looking up a little, as Brian Westbrook is 6 or 16 yards right now, up from 4 for -2 yards. The Falcons seem to be able to move the ball in big chunks as well.

Enough about MNF.

The Saints came through this weekend, an I'm happy for them, even if it cost me money. The silver lining for me was that the Panthers LOST. If a team can't cover the spread for me, I'd prefer to see them suffer a bit. This of course doesn't apply to teams that I really root for as a fan, but I usually avoid betting on games I have a rooting interest in, in order to TRY to be objective. The biggest exception to this at one time was Michigan State vs Anyone from the bottom 1/3 or so of the Big 10(11).

Michigan State used to start their season off against one good team, one meatball, and Notre Dame. They would play Michigan fairly early, and at times Iowa would be strong and they would play them early too.

Halfway into the season, you might see MSU at 2-4 against an Indiana or Illinois squad that was 4-2. Michigan State would be a slight dog, a slight favorite, or at most a 6 or 7 point favorite against a team they had beaten by 20 or 30 the year before. You could get lines like this for about 3 weeks in a row before the oddsmakers adjusted, I suppose because it took that long for the college football bettors to adjust. MSU would win by 20+ every game.

I'm not sure why, but it seems like now MSU's schedule has more good teams at the end (Michigan IS later, I don't think anybody else is as consistently good) so if anything they get overrated and tend to choke as they face stronger opposition, instead of being this MONSTER sleeper team. I bet the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 have teams like this. I need to find out who they are.

The other thing is MSU seems to be playing more meatballs at the beginning of the season (Kent State, Hawaii). That is why the Spartans have put up ridiculously good numbers that have me tempted to take the 6.5 at South Bend. They also have beat ND 4 straight times there. This is not enough to erase the year-in, year-out beatings at the hands of the Irish that once seemed as inevitable as the change of seasons, but its nice.

You see, the Michigan-Notre Dame game is probably the biggest game of the year where I really hate both teams, but still care about the outcome. (The other one is Michigan-Ohio State, but I don't REALLY hate Ohio State. At the Student Book Store in East Lansing you can buy bumper stickers that say "OhHowIHateOhioState," but don't let anyone fool you. MSU alums with that sticker are wannabe Wolverines that dont want to get a "You call it Maize, We call it CORN" bumper sticker on their car, because they secretly LOVE Michigan. They deserve slightly more respect than closet NAMBLA members. More on this later.

So who do I root for when ND plays U-M? It varies, but as a rule of thumb, the answer is simple:

Notre Dame.

Why? Because the next week they play Michigan State. And I'd much rather have them fat & happy than all pissed off and looking to monkey stomp the next team that they face, i.e. the hapless Spartans....

It can get pretty ugly. How ugly? Well...

If you're on their campus about Thursday/Friday at midnight you MIGHT hear distant chanting and drumbeats from a secret vault deep beneath the golden dome, as an ancient voodoo ritual is enacted upon a giant doll uncannily resembling MSU's mascot. (It also uncannily resembles USC's mascot...) You won't hear screams of pain as the doll is flogged, stabbed, and sometimes burned. (It's just a doll, silly!) But miles away, you just MIGHT see the largest ceramic statue in the world, "Sparty" with a tiny trickle of blood flowing from his hands or wrists.

That's right, the Sparty stigmata.

Last year the powers that be considered dressing the doll up like that Boilermaker guy to hex Kyle Orton before the Purdue game. But they had to save the ritual for USC. If they call on the powers of darkness too many times, a terrible price is exacted. A plague of Locusts. Seven years of famine. Gerry Faust. It was better to get humiliated by Purdue, take their lumps, and move on.

In 1993 they dressed the doll up in a headdress and a Charlie Ward jersey. They horsewhipped it and dripped melted wax from black candles onto its nipples. The hex worked so well that time that not only did Notre Dame beat Florida State and vault over them to #1 in all the polls, but Charlie Ward wasn't even drafted by the NFL, and instead toiled in obscurity in the NBA for a team known as the New York Knickerbockers. In a related move, Michael Jordan became a minor leaguer for the Chicago White Stockings. Dennis Rodman morphed into a multi-dye-jobbed, tatoo-encrusted, body-pierced cross-dressing freak, but continued to play basketball. Snoop Dogg volunteered to coach a profesional football team, and Shaq volunteered to be a Miami police officer. Sometimes the forces of darkness get it wrong, and sometimes they get carried away....Pandora's box was wide open, and chaos reigned...and reigned...and rained...and...

But there were other side effects as well.

There are always unforseen consequenses when souls get sold. Sometimes the price is paid later, sometimes sooner, and it's usually more than one can bear. It would be twelve long years before Notre Dame beat Michigan on the road again, but the worst of it came MUCH sooner.

Rumor has it that before the Ink had dried on the Sunday early edition, that is, more than a day before the polls officially declared Notre Dame #1, a Jesuit hit squad was dispatched to South Bend on a mission to foul to imagine.

The details of what transpired that week are unclear. Memories grow hazy when worked over by blackmail and torture. Current inquiries have been met with blank stares, angry denials, and whispered warnings. Who can say what dark deeds were done, what deals were made, or what was covered up? Or why Lou Holtz received repeated phone calls from Ross Perot...why a trophy case was found with the glass broken, and several trophies arranged to simulate various sexual perversions....Strong arm tactics are child's play for a determined band of Jesuits. What is clear is that seven days after Notre Dame defeated Florida State, they were in turn defeated in a stunning upset by the Golden Eagles of Boston College, 41-39.

The year before Notre Dame had demolished Boston College, 54-7.

Hopefully Irish overconfidence is enough to help the Spartans upset Notre Dame this weekend. After all, Michigan State is an agricultural college, not a Jesuit college.

Back to the weekend results:

Pick, (Result)
notredame+7MICHIGAN (Notre Dame17 Michigan10)
virginiatech-20DUKE (Virginia Tech 45 Duke 0)
cal-9WASHINGTON (Cal 56 Washington 17)

CAROLINA-7neworleans (New Orleans 23 Carolina 20)
indianapolis-3BALTIMORE (Indianapolis 24 Baltimore 7)
philadelphia-1.5ATLANTA (Atlanta 14 Philadelphia 10)

So I'm 3-0 college, 1-2 pro. 4-2 overall, but 3.5-2 in betting units, since I only bet a half unit on Notre Dame vs. Michigan.

Right now I'm thinking that Philly's running game needs some serious help, though I'm guessing most of their opposition this year shouldn't be as tough against the run as the Falcons. Atlanta was attractive as a revenge pick, especially with the Terrell Owens issues hanging over the Eagles heads. On the other hand, McNabb to Owens had looked really good during the preseason. They looked to me like they had something to prove, like "Even if we never speak, make eye contact, or otherwise communicate, we can be devastatingly effective." Something like that. I expect that mid-season adversity could lead to some sort of crisis where Owens will start acting up again, but perhaps their possible implosion will happen sooner than I expected. I also prefer to make revenge picks against Super Bowl Champions, not runners-up. And in the end, I expected Philadelphia's defense to be effective against Vick, where a lesser unit would not be. Oh well.

Indy kicked ass against Baltimore. Does this mean their defense no longer SUCKS? I have my doubts, but I am considering betting on them until the pointspreads reach the sky, or until they fail to cover. INDY-9jax? I'm thinking about it.

I'm also still thinking about NYG-3neworl. The Giants did alot better than I expected last week, and my resident Mississippiean believes that Eli Manning will be looking to kick the crap out of daddy's team. I'm still not sure that it matters yet what Eli wants, but if the Giants can keep scoring points I may have to take him seriously. Right now I'm also considering pitt-4HOU, butwhere I checked the line was already 6. I'm trying t find some underdogs to pull for, but it's hard. I'm also thinking DAL-6wash. I don't like giving many points in divisional matchups, but I'm thinking they might really have the 'Skins outclassed right now, especially with the unsettled QB situation in Washington. What else? Apparently the Rams are like 7-20 on the road, or as a road favorite,or something, but I'm thinking the "OVER" (44) between the St. Louis and the Cardinals could be a good pick. I just don't see much defense going on here.

On the college front, last week I was considering Nebraska giving 6 or 7 to Wake Forest, but with a 5-6 record last year, and only a 2-6 record vs. the Big 12, I wasn't sure Nebraska deserved that much respect. I also got burned picking BC over Wake last year. Well, Nebraska came through with a 31-3 win over Wake Forest, so now I am thinking about laying 10.5 with them at home vs. Pitt, who managed to lose last week to the mighty Ohio Bobcats (NOT Ohio State) 16-10. I'm staring to believe that Nebraska can at least be trusted to beat up on inferior opposition, and Pitt is looking...well...INFERIOR. If this was the NFL I might be looking for them to bounce back this week, but in college threre is MUCH less parity, and Lincoln might seem like Austrailia to some of these boys.

After this past weekend I'm thinking that I ought to consider looking for more college picks instead of pro. I'll be sure to let you know before gametime if I throw any $$ down on anybody. Here are some teams I am considering:VANDY, AUBURN, WAKE FOREST, CAL, wisconsin, ASU, N.TEXAS. I am very intrigued by the GA. TECH -17 uconn matchup and could go either way on that one....

Meanwhile, on my other blog, Two Men Out, (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) where I had one of my characters who is something of a bookie advertise my picks for the weekend, (same ones as above, he also avoided taking Nebraska or Texas, same as me) his penchant for insulting Joe Paterno led to him booking a bet for a customer on Penn State, who was an 18.5 point favorite vs. Cincinnati. Since they won by 18 (42-24) it worked out perfectly for the plot. Now my bookie character has a nemesis, who is bent on defending JoePa's honor by wagering on Penn State. (Note: I am not picking for or against Penn State. Frank states his picks in the narrative, while another character bets on Penn State and Frank takes his action. When I do go against [or for] Penn State I'll say so.)
LATER--

Virtual Exile--8Aug--10Sep/Football Pix

For the last week I've been sticking to sit&go's, with decent results. I'd place in three or so in a row on PartyPoker, then switch to Bodog if I hit a cold streak, staying there until the next cold streak came. All this came after I rode my Bodog account down to unacceptble levels in money games, playing at least once each on $2/4, $3/6, and $5/10 tables. I'd go into more detail, but I haven't figured out how to check my account history there, except for sports betting. So far all of my sports wagers have been on another account, so this doesn't do much for me.

woah---I forgot my username and haven't been able to get on here for the last 8 weeks. I'm back! Yay!! After my exile from my own blog, I'm back in the saddle....Once I remember what I was saying back in August, I'll finish this post. Meanwhile, I've started two other blogs--Porn Critixxx Dialogues, (www.porncritixxxdialogues.blogspot.com) and Two Men Out. I have some stuff I want to get onto "Two Men Out" (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) within the next 36 hours or so. Basically I have a character in my story on that blog who during various conversations makes my football picks for this weekend. I want these to be logged before the games take place, to prove that I am not just backdating picks. If I really get pinched for time I may just do it here instead.

In fact, here they are. Home teams in caps, my picks are listed first:

vatech -20 DUKE
ndame +7 UMICH
cal -9 WASH
CAR -7 neworl
ind -3 BALT
phi -1.5 ATL

I've seen spreads of 6.5 to 8.5 on Michigan-Notre Dame, which I suppose is indicative of just how heavy the action is on this game. I really wanted at least 7.5, but the site I have money on for sports betting (www.bet365.com) has it at 7. If I remember correctly I could've got Cal for 8 or 8.5 if I'd acted on Wednesday, but I waited til Friday. Sadly, the main thing I uncovered with my "research" is that Cal's QB got off to a rough start last week, which has me a bit concerned. Here's where we find out how much Aaron Rodgers waws responsible for Cal's recent success. I'm also banking on Ty Willingham taking a little while to turn Washington around. Had I not waited I think I could've had Carolina at -6.5, which of course is a much bigger half point than the 8.5-9 with Cal. These half points with Carolina and NotreDame really have me worried. I'm not sure how much capital I'm willing to tie up for pointspread flexibility, however. Also, this week bodog (www.bodog.com) had all the same lines as bet365, at least on these games. If I had waited I could've given only a point with the Eagles as well, so the money is coming in on Atlanta. I like Atlanta as a revenge pick, but I think Philadelphia still has something to prove, and Owens and McNabb seem to want to prove that they are unstoppable, even if they hate each other's guts. I also love Philly's defenses' history of containing Vick.

If the Ravens live up to expactations this year they could be a good pick as a home dog, but I want to get the Colts early when I don't have to give up too many points. The Ravens are admittedly one of the few teams out there with a defense good enough to potentially make Peyton Manning look bad, and Jamaal Lewis should dramatically improve their offense, but until they deliver I will continue to see them as a sleeping giant. The Colts may disappoint, but they will disappoint later on after they raise expectations by kicking ass during the regular season. Basically, I remember the 9 and 10 point spreads the Colts were getting every week last year, and I want to get them at -3 while I can.

My concern this week is that I have taken too many favorites (5 out of 6) too many road teams (5 out of 6), and too many road favorites (4 out of 6). Usually I like to look for strong underdogs, particularly at home to bet on. Basically my philosophy right now is that early in the season is the time to jump on serious mismatches, before the oddsmakers have a chance to adjust. If Duke and Washington are not as bad as I expect them to be, or if Cal and VaTech's young quarterbacks disappoint, it could be a long weekend. Likewise, if the Ravens live up to their preseason hype, or the Falcons live up to their Vick hype, I could be in trouble. On the other hand, if the Colts and Eagles live up to their hype, they will be meeting in the Super Bowl, so what the heck.

So those are my road favorites. Jeez, I don't like picking those too often! The only game I'm really feeling good about right now is Carolina. They have been getting a lot of preseason hype, so their line might be a little inflated, but I am basically looking at the Saints as the most high-profile victims of hurricane Katrina. So I'm not really banking on Carolina:

PANTHERS/KATRINA -7 saints

Know what I'm sayin'? Of course, if the Saints win it'll be the story of the week. Over exuberant sports writers will be talking about them as sleeper Super Bowl picks, Los Angeles will be trying to adopt them, etc, etc. The Saints don't have much of a history of performing in the clutch, however, and I see them folding here. Heck, I'm thinking about taking the Giants next week, and they SUCK.

GIANTS/KATRINA-4.5 saints

Know what I'm sayin'? Call it the Katrina effect.

My Notre Dame pick has me scared too. I think Michigan has been a bit overhyped lately, but I can't really say that Notre Dame hasn't been, since they beat Pitt last week. Basically I'm in love with Charlie Weiss right now, so as scary as Michigan's offense supposedly is, I think ND will keep up. And given that Notre Dame apparently has a defense, unlike Michigan, (as I put it in "Two Men Out," (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) Michigan's defensive co-ordinater was last seen putting Chinese Restaurant flyers under wiper blades at an Ann Arbor mall)--or something like that. This series has also had more close endings than anyone can count. ND hasn't won in the big house since like '93, and Michigan will be thinking revenge for last year, so I'm definitely concerned, but Michigan will be perfectly happy if they win by three at the last second, and their defense IS swiss cheese, (or was last year). But yeah, I'm scared, so I only made a 1/2 size bet. Screw it. If you really want to see me scared, ask me about Texas-Ohio State. I'm not touching that one.