Catching Up/More on Irish Voodoo

Well, another football weekend is upon us, and I am still not up to date. Last weekend I almost took the Colts and gave 14 against the Browns, but after checking Cleveland's stats, decided that so far they were a bit better than they were given credit for. Trent Dilfer was (is?) near the top of the NFL in QB efficiency, and while the Colts had done very well in terms of points allowed the Browns were among the leaders in yardage allowed. Add to that the fact that the Colt offense has been rather un-Colt-like so far this season. While their offense is probably due to explode any time now, predicting when it will explode is not as easy as predicting that it inevitably will. If I am going to try to time something like this I would prefer to see more weakness on the other side of the ball. While I probably shouldn't get too excited about my "non picks," Cleveland lost, but covered, 13-6.

My only pick last week was Notre Dame, giving 12 over Washington, and the Fighting Irish came through, 36-17. While I don't recall the line or the final score, I also won taking the Irish in that matchup last year. Last year Washington was awful, and I thought that was one of my easiest picks all year. This year I think that while they are improving and that Ty Willingham will prove to be a nice coaching upgrade, the Irish are also better, and it is looking more than fair to call Charlie Weis an offensive genius.

On to this week. If you read my 10Sept post, you may recall my theory of the Irish voodoo doll. There I explain how Notre Dame enhances their extrordinary luck by torturing a doll dressed up as a replica of their rivals' mascots. While they ultimately came up short against Michigan State, their secret torture of a Spartan doll just may have led to their unexpected 21(!) point comeback that game. Unexpected? I am confident that I am not alone among Spartan fans in totally expecting that comeback. I've seen it too many times. Then again I also am deeply suspicious that Notre Dame has been utilizing black magic against their opponets for years, so what the heck?

Which brings us to Purdue. Notre Dame's opponent this weekend, Purdue's mascot is perhaps best known as "a beer and a shot," (no wonder the "Fighting Irish" play them every year!) but their "Boilermaker is depicted as a large stupid looking man with a mallet--easy fodder for the Irish voodoo doll. Dress him in gold with a funny had, give him a hammer, and let the floggings and stabbings begin!

But as I mentioned a few weeks ago Notre Dame risks karmic retribution if they resort to the black arts too often. Whle they are a three point road underdog in their game this week, I expect the doll to remain unmolested in it's tomb, as Charlie Weis gives the Irish all the magic they need. Enough talk about the "Luck o' the Irish." The Spoilermakers have their own reputation for luck, and while a favorite should not be considered a spoiler when they win, I will not consider the Irish to be spoilers when they win at Purdue either, though I expect to be impressed by their fourth straight road win. While Purdue easily handled Notre Dame last year, their losing Kyle Orton coupled with their rivals' gaining Charlie Weis will lead to a good dose of Irish revenge. I suspect that more voodoo was involved in getting Notre Dame bye weeks prior to their matchps with USC and Tennessee this year. Did voodoo get them these teams (as well as what turned out to be a tough Spartan squad) at home, you ask? No, they alternate home and road games, silly!

Enough about the battle of Indiana--(forget the Hoosiers--by the time they finish against Purdue their 4-0 start will be a distant memory) on to the rest of this weeks picks:

virginiatech(-9)WESTVIRGINIA
arkansasstate(-3)LOUISIANA-MONROE
AUBURN(-14.5)southcarolina
notredame(+3)PURDUE
LOUISVILLE(-38.5)floridaatlantic

My picks are listed first. Home teams are in caps. Had I acted sooner, I would have had to give ten with Virginia Tech. Hopefully this point will be worth something, and the extra half-points I am giving up with Auburn and Louisville won't burn me. I was also considering taking BOSTONCOLLEGE(-38)over ballstate, but I'm not convinced BC will put enough points on the board with their backup QB, though his numbers so far aren't bad. Ball State, Louisiana-Monroe and Florida Atlantic are all awful teams and are featured in ESPN's "Bottom 10." So far this seems to be a good place to look for tams to bet against--see my non-picks from two weeks ago. Arkansas State was in the Bottom 10, but has posted a couple of nice wins, (56-7 over UT-Martin, and 66-24 over Florida International) so I suspect they can handle giving 3 on the road. Perhaps I'm naive, but how big is home-field in these games? Do people actually attend them? If they do, do they pay attention to the game, or just hunker down for a weekend of binge-tailgaiting (or is it tailgate-bingeing?)? My interest in the Sun Belt Conference does not really extend beyond handicapping opportunities, and I am fairly ignorant about these teams (as evidenced by my North Texas pick two weeks ago), but if there are any actual fans of these teams reading this blog I would love to hear from you.

Let me know about any dodo bird siteings as well--

Meanwhile, the big game I'm NOT picking, MSU(-6)umich started as a 4 point spread and moved to 5.5 within 24 hours. Within the last day or so the line moved to six. What does this mean? Well, obviously most of the money has been coming in on the good guys--(me:BA MSU '93) but to the deeply superstitious mind of a Spartan alum, it looks like we are being set up for a fall. I'm used to us playing the spoiler in this game, and I fear that the Wolverines will find themselves all to comfortable in this less-familiar role. Check how many Ohio State seasons they have ruined. (And I'm talking 10-0 Buckeye teams, not 4-0 teams.) As someone who has bled a fair amount of green, I remain humble, as well as deeply superstitious.
--LATER.