Virtual Exile--8Aug--10Sep/Football Pix
For the last week I've been sticking to sit&go's, with decent results. I'd place in three or so in a row on PartyPoker, then switch to Bodog if I hit a cold streak, staying there until the next cold streak came. All this came after I rode my Bodog account down to unacceptble levels in money games, playing at least once each on $2/4, $3/6, and $5/10 tables. I'd go into more detail, but I haven't figured out how to check my account history there, except for sports betting. So far all of my sports wagers have been on another account, so this doesn't do much for me.
woah---I forgot my username and haven't been able to get on here for the last 8 weeks. I'm back! Yay!! After my exile from my own blog, I'm back in the saddle....Once I remember what I was saying back in August, I'll finish this post. Meanwhile, I've started two other blogs--Porn Critixxx Dialogues, (www.porncritixxxdialogues.blogspot.com) and Two Men Out. I have some stuff I want to get onto "Two Men Out" (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) within the next 36 hours or so. Basically I have a character in my story on that blog who during various conversations makes my football picks for this weekend. I want these to be logged before the games take place, to prove that I am not just backdating picks. If I really get pinched for time I may just do it here instead.
In fact, here they are. Home teams in caps, my picks are listed first:
vatech -20 DUKE
ndame +7 UMICH
cal -9 WASH
CAR -7 neworl
ind -3 BALT
phi -1.5 ATL
I've seen spreads of 6.5 to 8.5 on Michigan-Notre Dame, which I suppose is indicative of just how heavy the action is on this game. I really wanted at least 7.5, but the site I have money on for sports betting (www.bet365.com) has it at 7. If I remember correctly I could've got Cal for 8 or 8.5 if I'd acted on Wednesday, but I waited til Friday. Sadly, the main thing I uncovered with my "research" is that Cal's QB got off to a rough start last week, which has me a bit concerned. Here's where we find out how much Aaron Rodgers waws responsible for Cal's recent success. I'm also banking on Ty Willingham taking a little while to turn Washington around. Had I not waited I think I could've had Carolina at -6.5, which of course is a much bigger half point than the 8.5-9 with Cal. These half points with Carolina and NotreDame really have me worried. I'm not sure how much capital I'm willing to tie up for pointspread flexibility, however. Also, this week bodog (www.bodog.com) had all the same lines as bet365, at least on these games. If I had waited I could've given only a point with the Eagles as well, so the money is coming in on Atlanta. I like Atlanta as a revenge pick, but I think Philadelphia still has something to prove, and Owens and McNabb seem to want to prove that they are unstoppable, even if they hate each other's guts. I also love Philly's defenses' history of containing Vick.
If the Ravens live up to expactations this year they could be a good pick as a home dog, but I want to get the Colts early when I don't have to give up too many points. The Ravens are admittedly one of the few teams out there with a defense good enough to potentially make Peyton Manning look bad, and Jamaal Lewis should dramatically improve their offense, but until they deliver I will continue to see them as a sleeping giant. The Colts may disappoint, but they will disappoint later on after they raise expectations by kicking ass during the regular season. Basically, I remember the 9 and 10 point spreads the Colts were getting every week last year, and I want to get them at -3 while I can.
My concern this week is that I have taken too many favorites (5 out of 6) too many road teams (5 out of 6), and too many road favorites (4 out of 6). Usually I like to look for strong underdogs, particularly at home to bet on. Basically my philosophy right now is that early in the season is the time to jump on serious mismatches, before the oddsmakers have a chance to adjust. If Duke and Washington are not as bad as I expect them to be, or if Cal and VaTech's young quarterbacks disappoint, it could be a long weekend. Likewise, if the Ravens live up to their preseason hype, or the Falcons live up to their Vick hype, I could be in trouble. On the other hand, if the Colts and Eagles live up to their hype, they will be meeting in the Super Bowl, so what the heck.
So those are my road favorites. Jeez, I don't like picking those too often! The only game I'm really feeling good about right now is Carolina. They have been getting a lot of preseason hype, so their line might be a little inflated, but I am basically looking at the Saints as the most high-profile victims of hurricane Katrina. So I'm not really banking on Carolina:
PANTHERS/KATRINA -7 saints
Know what I'm sayin'? Of course, if the Saints win it'll be the story of the week. Over exuberant sports writers will be talking about them as sleeper Super Bowl picks, Los Angeles will be trying to adopt them, etc, etc. The Saints don't have much of a history of performing in the clutch, however, and I see them folding here. Heck, I'm thinking about taking the Giants next week, and they SUCK.
GIANTS/KATRINA-4.5 saints
Know what I'm sayin'? Call it the Katrina effect.
My Notre Dame pick has me scared too. I think Michigan has been a bit overhyped lately, but I can't really say that Notre Dame hasn't been, since they beat Pitt last week. Basically I'm in love with Charlie Weiss right now, so as scary as Michigan's offense supposedly is, I think ND will keep up. And given that Notre Dame apparently has a defense, unlike Michigan, (as I put it in "Two Men Out," (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) Michigan's defensive co-ordinater was last seen putting Chinese Restaurant flyers under wiper blades at an Ann Arbor mall)--or something like that. This series has also had more close endings than anyone can count. ND hasn't won in the big house since like '93, and Michigan will be thinking revenge for last year, so I'm definitely concerned, but Michigan will be perfectly happy if they win by three at the last second, and their defense IS swiss cheese, (or was last year). But yeah, I'm scared, so I only made a 1/2 size bet. Screw it. If you really want to see me scared, ask me about Texas-Ohio State. I'm not touching that one.
woah---I forgot my username and haven't been able to get on here for the last 8 weeks. I'm back! Yay!! After my exile from my own blog, I'm back in the saddle....Once I remember what I was saying back in August, I'll finish this post. Meanwhile, I've started two other blogs--Porn Critixxx Dialogues, (www.porncritixxxdialogues.blogspot.com) and Two Men Out. I have some stuff I want to get onto "Two Men Out" (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) within the next 36 hours or so. Basically I have a character in my story on that blog who during various conversations makes my football picks for this weekend. I want these to be logged before the games take place, to prove that I am not just backdating picks. If I really get pinched for time I may just do it here instead.
In fact, here they are. Home teams in caps, my picks are listed first:
vatech -20 DUKE
ndame +7 UMICH
cal -9 WASH
CAR -7 neworl
ind -3 BALT
phi -1.5 ATL
I've seen spreads of 6.5 to 8.5 on Michigan-Notre Dame, which I suppose is indicative of just how heavy the action is on this game. I really wanted at least 7.5, but the site I have money on for sports betting (www.bet365.com) has it at 7. If I remember correctly I could've got Cal for 8 or 8.5 if I'd acted on Wednesday, but I waited til Friday. Sadly, the main thing I uncovered with my "research" is that Cal's QB got off to a rough start last week, which has me a bit concerned. Here's where we find out how much Aaron Rodgers waws responsible for Cal's recent success. I'm also banking on Ty Willingham taking a little while to turn Washington around. Had I not waited I think I could've had Carolina at -6.5, which of course is a much bigger half point than the 8.5-9 with Cal. These half points with Carolina and NotreDame really have me worried. I'm not sure how much capital I'm willing to tie up for pointspread flexibility, however. Also, this week bodog (www.bodog.com) had all the same lines as bet365, at least on these games. If I had waited I could've given only a point with the Eagles as well, so the money is coming in on Atlanta. I like Atlanta as a revenge pick, but I think Philadelphia still has something to prove, and Owens and McNabb seem to want to prove that they are unstoppable, even if they hate each other's guts. I also love Philly's defenses' history of containing Vick.
If the Ravens live up to expactations this year they could be a good pick as a home dog, but I want to get the Colts early when I don't have to give up too many points. The Ravens are admittedly one of the few teams out there with a defense good enough to potentially make Peyton Manning look bad, and Jamaal Lewis should dramatically improve their offense, but until they deliver I will continue to see them as a sleeping giant. The Colts may disappoint, but they will disappoint later on after they raise expectations by kicking ass during the regular season. Basically, I remember the 9 and 10 point spreads the Colts were getting every week last year, and I want to get them at -3 while I can.
My concern this week is that I have taken too many favorites (5 out of 6) too many road teams (5 out of 6), and too many road favorites (4 out of 6). Usually I like to look for strong underdogs, particularly at home to bet on. Basically my philosophy right now is that early in the season is the time to jump on serious mismatches, before the oddsmakers have a chance to adjust. If Duke and Washington are not as bad as I expect them to be, or if Cal and VaTech's young quarterbacks disappoint, it could be a long weekend. Likewise, if the Ravens live up to their preseason hype, or the Falcons live up to their Vick hype, I could be in trouble. On the other hand, if the Colts and Eagles live up to their hype, they will be meeting in the Super Bowl, so what the heck.
So those are my road favorites. Jeez, I don't like picking those too often! The only game I'm really feeling good about right now is Carolina. They have been getting a lot of preseason hype, so their line might be a little inflated, but I am basically looking at the Saints as the most high-profile victims of hurricane Katrina. So I'm not really banking on Carolina:
PANTHERS/KATRINA -7 saints
Know what I'm sayin'? Of course, if the Saints win it'll be the story of the week. Over exuberant sports writers will be talking about them as sleeper Super Bowl picks, Los Angeles will be trying to adopt them, etc, etc. The Saints don't have much of a history of performing in the clutch, however, and I see them folding here. Heck, I'm thinking about taking the Giants next week, and they SUCK.
GIANTS/KATRINA-4.5 saints
Know what I'm sayin'? Call it the Katrina effect.
My Notre Dame pick has me scared too. I think Michigan has been a bit overhyped lately, but I can't really say that Notre Dame hasn't been, since they beat Pitt last week. Basically I'm in love with Charlie Weiss right now, so as scary as Michigan's offense supposedly is, I think ND will keep up. And given that Notre Dame apparently has a defense, unlike Michigan, (as I put it in "Two Men Out," (www.twomenout.blogspot.com) Michigan's defensive co-ordinater was last seen putting Chinese Restaurant flyers under wiper blades at an Ann Arbor mall)--or something like that. This series has also had more close endings than anyone can count. ND hasn't won in the big house since like '93, and Michigan will be thinking revenge for last year, so I'm definitely concerned, but Michigan will be perfectly happy if they win by three at the last second, and their defense IS swiss cheese, (or was last year). But yeah, I'm scared, so I only made a 1/2 size bet. Screw it. If you really want to see me scared, ask me about Texas-Ohio State. I'm not touching that one.
posted by roQQ | 12:51 PM
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