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Has our hero hit rock bottom? He is hoping that his online sportsbook/poker accounts have hit bottom, but you can always go lower....They say that you have to hit rock bottom before you get help for an addiction, but if the addiction is profitable...

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Monday, October 22, 2012

Ravens turn to suck ass

I've spent half the morning trying to figure out a teaser or parlay that I like out of TEXASA&M(+3.5)vs. lsu and A&M-LSU o/u 53.  It could make sense to parlay the Aggies and the OVER 53, or lsu and UNDER 53, but this game is so very strength vs. strength (LSU defense vs. A&M offense) and weakness vs. weakness (LSU offense vs. Aggie defense), that it is very difficult to predict how the game will go.

Something's got to give, but what?

That's why I've made similar bets on Baylor(+8.5) at Texas, o/u 79.5.  Both sides of this matchup are strength vs. weakness--Baylor's offense (strength) vs. Texas' defense (weakness), and Texas' offense (strength) vs. Baylor's defense (HUGE weakness).

The only problem I see is that Texas' biggest deficiency is their run defense, while Baylor's biggest strength is their passing game.  Still, this pretty well described West Virginia as well, and they ran for 200+ yards against the Longhorns.

Whatever.  Anyway, typically I would tease both teams with the OVER.  This would get me TEXAS(-2.5), OVER 72.5, and baylor(+14.5), OVER 72.5.  Unfortunately, this requires Texas to win by between 3 and 14 points to win both bets, and I feel like Baylor has a legitimate shot to upset the Longhorns.  That's why I teased TEXAS(-2.5)over baylor, and parlayed the  
Baylor moneyline (+280) with OVER 79.5.  This pays 6.255 to 1.  Nice.

I took indiana(+3)over NAVY.  Indiana scoared 49 points in a loss to Ohio State.  This tells me that OSU's D sucks, but I figure anyone who can hang 49 on the Buckeyes should be favored in a trip to Annapolis.

Also makes me think I should have considered the OVER for Purdue at Ohio State.

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Aggs are up 12-0 in the 2nd quarter.  Right now A&M and the under looks pretty good.  Of course, this is not one of the bets I was considering.

I took penn state(+1.5)over IOWA.  I'm 2-0 on Penn State in the post-Sandusky era.  Betting Penn State reminds me of when I invested in BP in the post-Gulf oil spill era.  Dirty.  Profitable, but dirty.

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Texas A&M ended up losing, 24-19, so if you'd teased LSU and the UNDER, you would have won.  If you'd bet the over on 4.5 A&M turnovers you would have won that as well.

Michigan ended four years of Spartan dominance, narowly beating Michigan State, 12-10, but failing to cover the spread, which opened at 10 and dropped to 8.5.  Denard Robinson improved his record vs. MSU to 1-3, just in time to graduate, or at least run out of eligibility.

Indiana lost to Navy, 31-30, covering the spread.  1-0 for me.

Penn State is currently up on Iowa, 38-7.  Penn State is handling the Hawkeyes like Jerry Sandusky showering with a ... never mind.  Too soon?

Too soon.

14 minutes to go in that one, but I'll go ahead and say I'm 2-0.

Texas is up, 56-43, with 12 minutes to go.  The over and the teased over are in, so I win as long as Texas doesn't win by one or two.  When it was 49-40 I was worried about Baylor scoring to close to 49-47, but now Baylor is unlikely to settle for field goals, so I feel pretty safe right now.

Tomorrow I have baltimore(+7)over HOUSTON, arizona(+7.5)over MINNESOTA, and TAMPABAY(+3)over neworleans.  I eventually found baltimore(+8)over HOUSTON and took that too.

I know Baltimore has lost multiple defensive starters, but at least they've shown the ability to come from behind, unlike Houston.

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Where was I?  Besides on the wrong side of the Baltimore-Houston karmic ass-kicking....holy shit.
Makes me wonder if Baltimore can return the favor and completely humiliate the next team on their schedule...

Browns in Cleveland after their bye.  What a waste of karma.
                                                                               


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