I may have to Gig myself after this one
I've bet Texas A&M(+3)over LSU, after waiting over a week for the line to move from
A&M(+1). A Chad Millman column in late December predicted this line move, and it would appear the sharps waited as well, as I paid (-115) 45 minutes ago, and now the Ags cost (-120).
They are dragging out the pregame, and just introduced Jim Brown, who lost to TCU 54 years ago in the Cotton Bowl along with his Syracuse Orangemen. Meanwhile, A&M is up to
(-125).
A&M has scored, on about a 30 yard drive after a 69 yard kick return. 7-0. I have also gone for two parlays--Texas A&M(+105),over 49, paying 3/1, and LSU(-3),under 49, paying 2.83/1. On covers.com everyone seems to like the under, even if they're on the Aggies, but I think A&M needs the game to be a shootout.
Maybe the people on the under are thinking of A&M's 9-6 win over Nebraska. The Aggies now lead 10-0, with along drive after a pick they ran into their own end zone before coming back out to the two yard line. A&M showed they can run on LSU on that drive. That could help keep the score down as well. At this rate I may manage to lose both of my parlays. My Aggie parlay was with the moneyline rather than A&M(+3), so I could also lose that one if the score goes over but LSU wins by one or two, scenarios that I would win if I'd parlayed them with the pointspread.
LSU has answered with two scores, and are up 14-10. LSU and the over looks pretty good right now. I've been checking the line history at other sites, and it looks like bodog is one of the only sites that went to LSU(-3). Many sites moved up to LSU(-2.5), then pulled back to 1 or 2. If LSU is the public team, you could argue that bodog is the most public site out there. Covers.com's line history data is not completely accurate, however. Here is their bodog action, if I can cut and paste it successfully...A&M is up 17-14, but LSU is threatening again.
Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
12/09/10 11:14:55 AM -1/-110 (Open) OFF
12/09/10 11:14:56 AM -1/-110 49 -110 (Open)
12/15/10 4:54:53 PM -1/-110 49u -115
12/27/10 11:54:54 AM -1/-110 49 -110
01/01/11 6:24:54 AM -1/-115 49 -110
01/04/11 12:04:53 AM -1.5/-110 49 -110
01/05/11 4:34:54 PM -2/-110 49 -110
01/06/11 6:04:54 PM -2/-115 49 -110
01/07/11 9:34:54 AM -3/105 49 -110
01/07/11 10:54:53 AM -3/105 49o -115
01/07/11 11:54:53 AM -3/100 49o -115
01/07/11 2:34:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 6:24:54 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:14:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 7:24:53 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:54:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 8:04:53 PM -3/-105 49 -110
01/07/11 8:24:53 PM -3/-105 49u -115
Blogger has compressed this history so it is barely readable. In any case, on their history the LSU(-3) price since 9:34 this morning is at -105, other than when it moved to -110 at 6:24 pm, and 7:24 pm. When I parlayed LSU at 8:09 LSU(-3)was (+105), so the vig moved a couple of ticks beyond what covers has. Makes me wonder how they get their history.
It's halftime, and LSU leads 28-17. No way in hell this goes under. If A&M doesn't catch up I will lose all three bets.
A&M(+1). A Chad Millman column in late December predicted this line move, and it would appear the sharps waited as well, as I paid (-115) 45 minutes ago, and now the Ags cost (-120).
They are dragging out the pregame, and just introduced Jim Brown, who lost to TCU 54 years ago in the Cotton Bowl along with his Syracuse Orangemen. Meanwhile, A&M is up to
(-125).
A&M has scored, on about a 30 yard drive after a 69 yard kick return. 7-0. I have also gone for two parlays--Texas A&M(+105),over 49, paying 3/1, and LSU(-3),under 49, paying 2.83/1. On covers.com everyone seems to like the under, even if they're on the Aggies, but I think A&M needs the game to be a shootout.
Maybe the people on the under are thinking of A&M's 9-6 win over Nebraska. The Aggies now lead 10-0, with along drive after a pick they ran into their own end zone before coming back out to the two yard line. A&M showed they can run on LSU on that drive. That could help keep the score down as well. At this rate I may manage to lose both of my parlays. My Aggie parlay was with the moneyline rather than A&M(+3), so I could also lose that one if the score goes over but LSU wins by one or two, scenarios that I would win if I'd parlayed them with the pointspread.
LSU has answered with two scores, and are up 14-10. LSU and the over looks pretty good right now. I've been checking the line history at other sites, and it looks like bodog is one of the only sites that went to LSU(-3). Many sites moved up to LSU(-2.5), then pulled back to 1 or 2. If LSU is the public team, you could argue that bodog is the most public site out there. Covers.com's line history data is not completely accurate, however. Here is their bodog action, if I can cut and paste it successfully...A&M is up 17-14, but LSU is threatening again.
Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
12/09/10 11:14:55 AM -1/-110 (Open) OFF
12/09/10 11:14:56 AM -1/-110 49 -110 (Open)
12/15/10 4:54:53 PM -1/-110 49u -115
12/27/10 11:54:54 AM -1/-110 49 -110
01/01/11 6:24:54 AM -1/-115 49 -110
01/04/11 12:04:53 AM -1.5/-110 49 -110
01/05/11 4:34:54 PM -2/-110 49 -110
01/06/11 6:04:54 PM -2/-115 49 -110
01/07/11 9:34:54 AM -3/105 49 -110
01/07/11 10:54:53 AM -3/105 49o -115
01/07/11 11:54:53 AM -3/100 49o -115
01/07/11 2:34:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 6:24:54 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:14:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 7:24:53 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:54:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 8:04:53 PM -3/-105 49 -110
01/07/11 8:24:53 PM -3/-105 49u -115
Blogger has compressed this history so it is barely readable. In any case, on their history the LSU(-3) price since 9:34 this morning is at -105, other than when it moved to -110 at 6:24 pm, and 7:24 pm. When I parlayed LSU at 8:09 LSU(-3)was (+105), so the vig moved a couple of ticks beyond what covers has. Makes me wonder how they get their history.
It's halftime, and LSU leads 28-17. No way in hell this goes under. If A&M doesn't catch up I will lose all three bets.
posted by roQQ | 5:23 PM
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