The New Evil on Party Poker/Baseball Season Begins
Well, I've been back from the field for about a month now, but I've been bingeing out on poker a bit to much to blog, and it seems to me that it would behoove me to start blogging again
(a.) For the sake of the blog
(b.) As a break from poker.
Since returning from the field with $1615 in my Party Poker account, I have risen to a high of $1964, and I have now rode (ridden?) my stack down to its current low of $1243. Factor in the unexplained $200 bonus that PP threw my way, and I am sitting uneasily on a bankroll a little over a grand, down almost $600 for the month.
You can see how I might need to take a break.
Unfourtunately, even as I speak here, I am playing in two $1-2 Stud games.
Some break.
I've been playing alot more 7 card stud lately. The hold-em action on Party has dried up so much that I think it is time for me to branch out into other games. Originally I believed that
the action had dried up on Party because they had given the axe to their various "skins." While this still seems likely, now I believe there is a new culprit.
Six handed games!
With the proliferation of six handed games, many good ten handed games have ceased to exist. The maniacs and fish who have been my bread and butter (I particularly enjoy, and often excel in loose-aggressive games) have largely moved over to six-handed games, where their unruly and often ill-advised styles of play (I hesitate to say "strategies") are much closer to being correct, and are far more difficult to deal with.
I have read several articles where the author prefers short-handed games because he is able to win at a higher rate, and is able to exploit the weaknesses of his opponents more often. If one is adept at playing this sort of game I'm sure that this is true, but I am not, and I tend to lose my way. I am becoming convinced that I must make improving my short handed game a priority, as this seems to be where the profits lie. Certainly the action is there.
Meanwhile, baseball season is finally underway, and I am looking to extend my streak of picking (and winning money on) pennant winners. To recap, in 2004 I had the Cardinals at 10-1 for the NL pennant, and in 2005 I had the White Sox at 9-1 for the AL, and the Astros at 8-1 in the NL.
In '04 I did not make any bets on the AL race, because I was convinced that it would come down to the Yankees and Red Sox. Since everyone else was convinced of this as well it was impossible to get a good price on either of these teams. If my memory serves me, the Yankees started out as the favorite at about 2-1, while the Sox started out as about a 4-1 shot, but the odds may have been even shorter than that. By the end of the season the Yankees were about a 1-1, or perhaps a 6-5 shot (maybe 5-6!), and the Sox were abot 2-1.
Now, a couple of things are at work here, keeping me from betting on that race. One is my reluctance to bet against a streak, the streak in question here being the 86 years since the Red Sox won the World Series. Now, in that time the Sox won the AL pennant four times, if my memory serves me, the last time in '86, so we are only talking about an 18 year streak since their last pennant. But what we are really talking about is the streak of Red Sox futility against the Yankees. How many times have the Sox triumphed over the Yankees when both teams were good? I'm not sure, but I don't think the answer is one that warms the heart of the Boston faithful.
The other is my undying hatred of the Yankees. I'm not crazy about putting my money on a team, and then hoping that they lose for the next 150 or so games. (Though I did this a few days ago, as you will see below.) Having said this, if I could have gotten 7 or 8 to one on one of these teams I wouldn't hesitate to throw down on them. Heck, with those odds I'd have to throw down on both of them if I could. But these teams are routinely overrated, at least as far as the money odds goes. If you ever get the Yankees at 10-1, it will be in a year when they deserve to be a 20-1 shot.
By way of comparison, currently the Toronto Blue Jays are a 14-1 shot, while the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers are 25-1 shots (to win the AL pennant.) The Atlanta Braves are a 20-1 shot to win the World Series. Rather than continue to add to this post, I'll continue this discussion in my next post.
(a.) For the sake of the blog
(b.) As a break from poker.
Since returning from the field with $1615 in my Party Poker account, I have risen to a high of $1964, and I have now rode (ridden?) my stack down to its current low of $1243. Factor in the unexplained $200 bonus that PP threw my way, and I am sitting uneasily on a bankroll a little over a grand, down almost $600 for the month.
You can see how I might need to take a break.
Unfourtunately, even as I speak here, I am playing in two $1-2 Stud games.
Some break.
I've been playing alot more 7 card stud lately. The hold-em action on Party has dried up so much that I think it is time for me to branch out into other games. Originally I believed that
the action had dried up on Party because they had given the axe to their various "skins." While this still seems likely, now I believe there is a new culprit.
Six handed games!
With the proliferation of six handed games, many good ten handed games have ceased to exist. The maniacs and fish who have been my bread and butter (I particularly enjoy, and often excel in loose-aggressive games) have largely moved over to six-handed games, where their unruly and often ill-advised styles of play (I hesitate to say "strategies") are much closer to being correct, and are far more difficult to deal with.
I have read several articles where the author prefers short-handed games because he is able to win at a higher rate, and is able to exploit the weaknesses of his opponents more often. If one is adept at playing this sort of game I'm sure that this is true, but I am not, and I tend to lose my way. I am becoming convinced that I must make improving my short handed game a priority, as this seems to be where the profits lie. Certainly the action is there.
Meanwhile, baseball season is finally underway, and I am looking to extend my streak of picking (and winning money on) pennant winners. To recap, in 2004 I had the Cardinals at 10-1 for the NL pennant, and in 2005 I had the White Sox at 9-1 for the AL, and the Astros at 8-1 in the NL.
In '04 I did not make any bets on the AL race, because I was convinced that it would come down to the Yankees and Red Sox. Since everyone else was convinced of this as well it was impossible to get a good price on either of these teams. If my memory serves me, the Yankees started out as the favorite at about 2-1, while the Sox started out as about a 4-1 shot, but the odds may have been even shorter than that. By the end of the season the Yankees were about a 1-1, or perhaps a 6-5 shot (maybe 5-6!), and the Sox were abot 2-1.
Now, a couple of things are at work here, keeping me from betting on that race. One is my reluctance to bet against a streak, the streak in question here being the 86 years since the Red Sox won the World Series. Now, in that time the Sox won the AL pennant four times, if my memory serves me, the last time in '86, so we are only talking about an 18 year streak since their last pennant. But what we are really talking about is the streak of Red Sox futility against the Yankees. How many times have the Sox triumphed over the Yankees when both teams were good? I'm not sure, but I don't think the answer is one that warms the heart of the Boston faithful.
The other is my undying hatred of the Yankees. I'm not crazy about putting my money on a team, and then hoping that they lose for the next 150 or so games. (Though I did this a few days ago, as you will see below.) Having said this, if I could have gotten 7 or 8 to one on one of these teams I wouldn't hesitate to throw down on them. Heck, with those odds I'd have to throw down on both of them if I could. But these teams are routinely overrated, at least as far as the money odds goes. If you ever get the Yankees at 10-1, it will be in a year when they deserve to be a 20-1 shot.
By way of comparison, currently the Toronto Blue Jays are a 14-1 shot, while the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers are 25-1 shots (to win the AL pennant.) The Atlanta Braves are a 20-1 shot to win the World Series. Rather than continue to add to this post, I'll continue this discussion in my next post.
posted by roQQ | 7:17 AM
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