LeBron lowers my winning %

I kicked ass last week, going 4-2 on the NFL, 5-2 if you count that I had Atlanta over Green Bay at both ATL(-2) and ATL(-1). The Falcons won, 20-17. This game came down to the wire, just as I expected. It would have been a good candidate for a double tease--maybe even a quad tease.

I won on HOUSTON(-6)over tennessee. It looks like the Rusty Smith era has ended as quicky as it began. The Texans won, 20-0, and Andre Johnson decked Cortland Finnegan.

I lost on SEATTLE(+2)over kansascity, as the Chiefs finally won one on the road, 42-24. Are the days of the Seahawks being money at home over? I may have to limit bets on them to games against their divisional rivals.

I lost on OAKLAND(-3)over miami. The Raiders lost, 33-17. What's the world coming to?

The Bears made me look like a genius, taking down the Eagles, 31-26. I had CHICAGO(+4). I'm not a bit confident about my bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, and I'm not ready to live in a world where I have to take the Bears seriously, either. They could end up a two seed the way it's going. I take the Bears and Falcons seriously at home, which could translate to one of them representing the NFC this year.

The Chargers came through with their usual demolition of the Colts, winning on the road, 36-14, despite zero contribution from Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, and less than usual from the still gimpy Antonio Gates. I had san diego(+3)over INDIANAPOLIS.

I've started off this week 0-1. I took houston(+9)over PHILADELPHIA, and the Texans justified my belief that this line was inflated, coming from behind to take a 24-20 lead, before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns and losing 34-24. I still think this was a solid bet.

Meanwhile, I bet against the Miami Heat twice, taking detroit(+12), and CLEVELAND(+6). Apparently the Heat have been a good team to bet against this year, but this may be changing, as I lost both of these bets.

I have denver(+9)over KANSAS CITY. Nine? Apparently somebody's drinking the KC Kool-Aid now. The Broncos beat the Chiefs 49-29 a few weeks ago. I've heard the arguement that Todd Haley will try to run up the score as a vengeance move. That assumes he will be in a position to run up the score. I say the Broncos keep it close. It seem like there are alot of 9 point lines in the last couple of weeks.

I've also taken TAMPABAY(+3)over atlanta. If nine points is the line for overrated home favorites, three points seems to be the standard on the road. The Bucs have won alot more than anybody thought they would, and they've kept their losses close, excepf for when I bet them against the Saints. Oops.

I liked buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA, and I wasn't alone. This line is down to 5.5, and I'm not sure how I feel about it there. Still tempted, I guess. Actually I can pay -120 vig to get it back to 6. I'll do it. buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA. Last week you could have won with BUFFALO(+7)over pittsburgh, jacksonville(+7)over NYGIANTS, and tampabay(+7.5)over BALTIMORE.

In armaggedonish games like last week's Iron Bowl I like to look for a double tease that makes sense to me. With Alabama and Auburn's contrasting styles, I liked 'Bama and the under, and Auburn and the over. While the early going made Alabama and the over look like the most likely result, Auburn came back and made both of my bets cover.

In the case of Pittsburgh at Baltimore, I again expect a tight game (when was the last time somebody won this game by more than four points?), and I like the over, since teasing the number gets me the insanely low pittsburgh(+10)over BALTIMORE, OVER 32. While I don't hate BALTIMORE(+4), OVER 32, the +4 is not ideal, (lines closest to a pick are best for this kind of tease) I will take the Pittsburgh end of it. These teams give up enough points to make me feel good about the teased over, and they're so consistent that I feel like you can count on at least 16 points from each of them, though no more than 24 from either. I don't have a problem with teasing the OVER up to 45 or 46, though I'm not going to do this myself. These teams score more than peple give them credit for, though they didn't last week.

I'm not convinced Kerry Collins is the cure for what ails the Titans, but he might be. I never feel like I quite have a handle on what the Titans and Jags are going to do...other than last week. Bring back Rusty Smith! I like what he did to Chris Johnson's fantasy numbers, since there's a good chance I play him in the playoffs in one of my leagues.

Of the five contenders left in the Bunny Slope league, two took QBs in the first round, one took theirs in the 4th round, and the other two waited until late. Overall, I think our scoring system made QB play largely irrelevant. If anything, top QBs seem to be a liability because they keep you from drafting top RBs and WRs. Here are our top teams, and the QBs they've started this year.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3)--Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Kevin Kolb
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4)--Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck
Camden Convicts (8-4)--Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Jon Kitna
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4)--Brett Favre, Michael Vick
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5)--Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler

The only good thing about my 4th round Matt Schaub pick turned out to be that Tony Romo got injured seven games in. I think I've benched him about as much as I've started him. Ryan Fitzpatrick has outscored him, despite playing two fewer games.

Eli Manning is the 10th scoring QB this year. His main problem was that it took Pugilant Mick a while to figure out he doesn't completely suck. Matt Cassel's main problem (for Mick) is that his resurgence came after Mick dropped him.

Kyle Orton turned out to be one of the draft's biggest steals. He has outscored Peyton Manning at this point, and is 3rd in QB scoring.

Brett Favre was the 5th overall pick, possibly the dumbest pick in the entire draft. Baby B. also traded Jay Cutler away for Steve Slaton. He made up for his stupidity by trading for Michael Vick, though he had to give up DeSean Jackson to get him. I think he dropped both Vick and Favre, though he had the sense to pick Vick back up. Unfortunately, he picked Favre back up as well.

Daddy B. took Peyton Manning with the first overall pick, whcih is way too soon. That is why he is stating Justin Forsett at RB, though it could be worse. Baby B. is starting Jason Snelling and Michael Bush this week, and has played Snelling and Hightower for most of the season. This weakness at RB is why I am going to crush him today, and possibly knock him out of the playoffs.

Life isn't always fair. Here are our teams in order of points scored.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3) 1697
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4) 1537
Camden Convicts (8-4) 1508
PR Cowboys (6-6) 1483
Team Cheesehead (5-7) 1445
Show Me Your TD's 1438
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5) 1436
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4) 1392
Pixburgh Stillers (4-8) 1372
Evil Robot Army (6-6) 1292
Florida Blue Falcons (5-7) 1289
Anaheim Shamieh (2-10) 1093

As long as Argentina loses, Camden and Irish keep the 2 & 3 seeds. Since they have stronger teams, it does me no good to try to throw the last game to influence my first round opponent. Even if I determined that I would rather play Tennessee, the risk of ending up aginst Camden sooner than necessary makes the juice of an attempted rig worth considerably less than the squeeze.