ESPN Pigskin Pick-Em
I've entered the ESPN Pigskin Pick-Em--twice. I'm pretty sure this is allowed, in fact I think unlimited entrys are allowed. I have entered once as my wife to keep the entrys distinct. Since underdogs have outperformed favorites the past couple of years, on my roQQboTTom entry I am following an extremely simple strategy--I am picking all underdogs.
If you can call that picking.
For my wife's entry I am altering my strategy slightly. I am picking mostly underdogs, but see if I can improve my score by selecting a limited number of favorites. Here are my wife's picks. Mine you can derive from the newspaper.
saints(+6.5)overCOLTS If this was a playoff game I might agree with this line. On the other hand, didn't the Colts spend a few weeks establishing their running game at the beginning of the last couple of seasons? The Colts will get their share of blowouts, but who says this will be one of them? It'll be interesting to see if the Colts remember how to play defense, or if last year's Super Bowl run was an anomaly, a freak, a fluke....
(I am on Mansion right now checking spreads, since I only have $36 on bodog. On Mansion they tell how many people have bet on each side of the money line, over, under, and odds lines. Fascinating. At least it is right now, since I just discovered it. Before I could tell which way the money was going because the sites would adjust the vig, but this adds alot of detail. Now I might be able to see how lopsided the money needs to get to move the line. Of course, Mansion is largely British, so this could skew things a bit, since they aren't letting Americans bet there. Anyway, I am going to include the action with these lines, so we'll see how this goes. Before continuing, read the last sentence of the previous paragraph, or the next one won't make much sense.)
You know, like Pittsburgh's run the year before. Speaking of which,
BROWNS(+3.5)oversteelers 3.5 point road favorites vs divisional rival has to be a suckers bet, right? (It's 4.5 on bodog) Not that these Browns inspire confidence or anything. But why waste time justifying picks when I'm just reflexively picking dogs? Unless I think of some snide remarks, of course...
630chiefs(+3)overTEXANS541 In the old AFL, the Chiefs were originally the Dallas Texans. Oughta give the announcers something to jabber on about. Anyone besides me notice that the Jets got good again right after Herman Edwards left, while the Chiefs seem ready to cozy up to the Raiders at the bottom of the AFC West for a couple of years?
823BILLS(+3)overbroncos1236 Not that I can't think of any snide remarks, but lets move on....
579titans(+7)overJAGUARS2123 Jags have Tennessee outclassed, but Vince Young is a huge X-factor, and this is a divisional rivalry, so this is the sort of game my strategy is geared towards.
556RAMS(-1)overpanthers450 Neither of these teams inspires much confidence, but Stephen Jackson is supposedly the smart money's #2 fantasy pick, and the Panthers have to travel to a dome, so...Voila! My first favorite picked!
1092PACKERS(+3)overeagles528 Can Packers steal enough games to con Brett Favre into returning for another year? The answer starts here...or at the next Favre press conference perhaps. Can't wait for another season of those.
453falcons(+3)overVIKINGS3288 not much to like about the Falcons here. On the other hand, the Saints won their first game after Hurricane Katrina, so maybe the Falcons can have a similar start after Vick/PittBull-gate. Looks like they remade The Longest Yard a couple of years too soon. Who needs Adam Sandler when you have Michael Vick? And after he gets out, Vick could join the Ricky Williams All-Stars (Toronto Argonauts) smoking Ricky's Heisman Trophy bong aboard the team plane. My original picks for this role (Brett Favre and Doug Flutie) don't seem interested, so what the heck? Could have all the excitement of Michael Jordan's minor league baseball career, with twice the wackiness!
195patriots(-6)overJETS223 I'm not crazy about this pick, as it involves betting against a home dog in a divisional game, as well as one who tends to be underrated, but the Pats are favored to win it all, and deserve to be. I think in the end I may bet the dogs in all the games where I'm not taking the favorite, and sit those exceptions out. At least that will keep me from going against the Pats. Of course, it will also prevent me from betting on the Pats as well....
49dolphins(+3)overREDSKINS281 I'd love to bet against both of these teams. The 'Skins are one of those teams that is perennially overrated but always disappoint. For instance, they are currently 40-1 to win the Super Bowl on bodog. Meanwhile, in Miami the bad news is that Nick Saban has ditched the 'Fins. The good news is that Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington have moved along as well. Crappy matchups like this are what my strategy of indiscriminately taking the points is designed for. Semidiscriminately? Whatever.
384SEAHAWKS(-6)overbuccaneers443 Not crazy about giving 6 with this 'Hawks team, but the Bucs could be gloriously bad. Throw in a road game on turf with a noisy home crowd who hasn't yet had their hopes dashed. On the other hand, Jeff Garcia is running the Tampa Bay offense, and last I checked the Bucs had a "D," so who knows? I just might sit this one out.
548bears(+6.5)overCHARGERS2464 I guess if the Colts and Saints can square off in the season opener, the other Super Bowl team ought to play the other conference runner up. Oh wait, that was the Patriots. We'll see how long it takes Rex Grossman to suck this year. This might be a little early. Or he may just extend his suck streak from last year.
2537RAIDERS(-1.5)overlions424 Remember what I said about the Redskins being a 40-1 shot to win it all? The Lions are a 30-1 shot. Still, I think the 'Skins fail more expectations than the Lions, because all I expect from the Lions is that they will draft Mario Manningham early in the first round next year. And that they will consistently underperform on the road. Yes Virginia, home teams are in caps.
COWBOYS(-3.5)overgiants Unfortunately the bodog line is -6, which I think is too much to lay here, even against the Giants, who seem poised to have a dismal season. I'd break my rule here at 3.5, but not 6. 2224giants(+6)overCOWBOYS194
123ravens(+3)overBENGALS153 The public seems to experience irrational exuberance when considering the prospects of teams with offenses as potentially sick as Cincy's. Or perhaps the linesmakers are remembering Baltimore's 15-0 disappointment against the Colts in the playoffs. To me this game feels more like a pick, give or take a point.
2022cardinals(+3.5)over49ers2466 Too bad the bodog spread is 3, which sounds just about right. I like what Mike Nolan is doing with the Niners, while the Cardinals seem doomed, as usual. This pick could really test my resolve to take underdogs. App State could probably take Arizona--and cover.
A couple of things stand out. First, a few teams are getting overwhelming action relative to the other side. These are:
NYGiants(+6)
Oakland(-1.5)
Chargers(-6.5)
Washigton(-3)
Minnesota(-3)
Green Bay(+3)
Jacksonville(-7)
The game receiving the most action was SanFrancisco vs Arizona, I suppose because it is on Monday night. the Giants, Vikings and Chargers received the most unbalanced action.
Okay, the smoke has cleared, and I have submitted my bets. They differ somewhat from what you see above, mainly in that I (only) bet on 10 of the remaining 15 games, as follows.
kc(+3)overHOU
BUF(+3)overden
CLE(+4.5)overpit
STL(-1)overcar
GB(+3)overphi
atl(+3)overMIN
SEA(-6)overtb
OAK(-2.5)overdet
nyg(+6)overDAL
bal(+3)overCIN
I am bucking public opinion the most by taking the Vick-less Falcons. I went with the crowd, taking the points and the Giants, even though I expect them to disappoint this year. Six is too much. Unfortunately I waited too long before taking the Raiders, and the spread moved a point. I chickened out on the Titans, Bears, Dolphins, Pats and Cardnails, to the point where I'm tempted to take the other side (except fro the Titans). Seattle is the big departure from my principles, as New England would have been, had I given the points.
Screw it. ten(+6)overJAX. Of the above picks, I'm in agreement with The Sports Guy on St Louis, Atlanta, Seattle, Oakland, and Tennessee. He pretty much talked me into Atlanta and Tennessee. I don't mind disagreeing with him, since while I tend to agree with his reasoning, he tends to be wrong.
My gut likes going against Buffalo, since they always seem to start off slowly, as do the Packers. They don't like to start winning until everyone writes them off. Is their home field advantage any good when it's still warm out?
Michigan and Notre Dame are both 0-2, sucking much of the local drama out of the young football season. Murphy's law likes the Irish in this year's matchups of the teams I hate, because Lloyd Carr may be on his way to getting fired, while Charlie Weiss' job looks secure. Murphy wants a disaster, and the Wolverines just may be that disaster. Though a win against Notre Dame wouldn't completely save them. The Big Ten may be an overrated house of mediocraty, but is it soft enough to let the Wolverines go 8-3 and salvage their year. I say no. 7-4? I say yes, though I am enjoying projecting them to 5-6....
If you can call that picking.
For my wife's entry I am altering my strategy slightly. I am picking mostly underdogs, but see if I can improve my score by selecting a limited number of favorites. Here are my wife's picks. Mine you can derive from the newspaper.
saints(+6.5)overCOLTS If this was a playoff game I might agree with this line. On the other hand, didn't the Colts spend a few weeks establishing their running game at the beginning of the last couple of seasons? The Colts will get their share of blowouts, but who says this will be one of them? It'll be interesting to see if the Colts remember how to play defense, or if last year's Super Bowl run was an anomaly, a freak, a fluke....
(I am on Mansion right now checking spreads, since I only have $36 on bodog. On Mansion they tell how many people have bet on each side of the money line, over, under, and odds lines. Fascinating. At least it is right now, since I just discovered it. Before I could tell which way the money was going because the sites would adjust the vig, but this adds alot of detail. Now I might be able to see how lopsided the money needs to get to move the line. Of course, Mansion is largely British, so this could skew things a bit, since they aren't letting Americans bet there. Anyway, I am going to include the action with these lines, so we'll see how this goes. Before continuing, read the last sentence of the previous paragraph, or the next one won't make much sense.)
You know, like Pittsburgh's run the year before. Speaking of which,
BROWNS(+3.5)oversteelers 3.5 point road favorites vs divisional rival has to be a suckers bet, right? (It's 4.5 on bodog) Not that these Browns inspire confidence or anything. But why waste time justifying picks when I'm just reflexively picking dogs? Unless I think of some snide remarks, of course...
630chiefs(+3)overTEXANS541 In the old AFL, the Chiefs were originally the Dallas Texans. Oughta give the announcers something to jabber on about. Anyone besides me notice that the Jets got good again right after Herman Edwards left, while the Chiefs seem ready to cozy up to the Raiders at the bottom of the AFC West for a couple of years?
823BILLS(+3)overbroncos1236 Not that I can't think of any snide remarks, but lets move on....
579titans(+7)overJAGUARS2123 Jags have Tennessee outclassed, but Vince Young is a huge X-factor, and this is a divisional rivalry, so this is the sort of game my strategy is geared towards.
556RAMS(-1)overpanthers450 Neither of these teams inspires much confidence, but Stephen Jackson is supposedly the smart money's #2 fantasy pick, and the Panthers have to travel to a dome, so...Voila! My first favorite picked!
1092PACKERS(+3)overeagles528 Can Packers steal enough games to con Brett Favre into returning for another year? The answer starts here...or at the next Favre press conference perhaps. Can't wait for another season of those.
453falcons(+3)overVIKINGS3288 not much to like about the Falcons here. On the other hand, the Saints won their first game after Hurricane Katrina, so maybe the Falcons can have a similar start after Vick/PittBull-gate. Looks like they remade The Longest Yard a couple of years too soon. Who needs Adam Sandler when you have Michael Vick? And after he gets out, Vick could join the Ricky Williams All-Stars (Toronto Argonauts) smoking Ricky's Heisman Trophy bong aboard the team plane. My original picks for this role (Brett Favre and Doug Flutie) don't seem interested, so what the heck? Could have all the excitement of Michael Jordan's minor league baseball career, with twice the wackiness!
195patriots(-6)overJETS223 I'm not crazy about this pick, as it involves betting against a home dog in a divisional game, as well as one who tends to be underrated, but the Pats are favored to win it all, and deserve to be. I think in the end I may bet the dogs in all the games where I'm not taking the favorite, and sit those exceptions out. At least that will keep me from going against the Pats. Of course, it will also prevent me from betting on the Pats as well....
49dolphins(+3)overREDSKINS281 I'd love to bet against both of these teams. The 'Skins are one of those teams that is perennially overrated but always disappoint. For instance, they are currently 40-1 to win the Super Bowl on bodog. Meanwhile, in Miami the bad news is that Nick Saban has ditched the 'Fins. The good news is that Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington have moved along as well. Crappy matchups like this are what my strategy of indiscriminately taking the points is designed for. Semidiscriminately? Whatever.
384SEAHAWKS(-6)overbuccaneers443 Not crazy about giving 6 with this 'Hawks team, but the Bucs could be gloriously bad. Throw in a road game on turf with a noisy home crowd who hasn't yet had their hopes dashed. On the other hand, Jeff Garcia is running the Tampa Bay offense, and last I checked the Bucs had a "D," so who knows? I just might sit this one out.
548bears(+6.5)overCHARGERS2464 I guess if the Colts and Saints can square off in the season opener, the other Super Bowl team ought to play the other conference runner up. Oh wait, that was the Patriots. We'll see how long it takes Rex Grossman to suck this year. This might be a little early. Or he may just extend his suck streak from last year.
2537RAIDERS(-1.5)overlions424 Remember what I said about the Redskins being a 40-1 shot to win it all? The Lions are a 30-1 shot. Still, I think the 'Skins fail more expectations than the Lions, because all I expect from the Lions is that they will draft Mario Manningham early in the first round next year. And that they will consistently underperform on the road. Yes Virginia, home teams are in caps.
COWBOYS(-3.5)overgiants Unfortunately the bodog line is -6, which I think is too much to lay here, even against the Giants, who seem poised to have a dismal season. I'd break my rule here at 3.5, but not 6. 2224giants(+6)overCOWBOYS194
123ravens(+3)overBENGALS153 The public seems to experience irrational exuberance when considering the prospects of teams with offenses as potentially sick as Cincy's. Or perhaps the linesmakers are remembering Baltimore's 15-0 disappointment against the Colts in the playoffs. To me this game feels more like a pick, give or take a point.
2022cardinals(+3.5)over49ers2466 Too bad the bodog spread is 3, which sounds just about right. I like what Mike Nolan is doing with the Niners, while the Cardinals seem doomed, as usual. This pick could really test my resolve to take underdogs. App State could probably take Arizona--and cover.
A couple of things stand out. First, a few teams are getting overwhelming action relative to the other side. These are:
NYGiants(+6)
Oakland(-1.5)
Chargers(-6.5)
Washigton(-3)
Minnesota(-3)
Green Bay(+3)
Jacksonville(-7)
The game receiving the most action was SanFrancisco vs Arizona, I suppose because it is on Monday night. the Giants, Vikings and Chargers received the most unbalanced action.
Okay, the smoke has cleared, and I have submitted my bets. They differ somewhat from what you see above, mainly in that I (only) bet on 10 of the remaining 15 games, as follows.
kc(+3)overHOU
BUF(+3)overden
CLE(+4.5)overpit
STL(-1)overcar
GB(+3)overphi
atl(+3)overMIN
SEA(-6)overtb
OAK(-2.5)overdet
nyg(+6)overDAL
bal(+3)overCIN
I am bucking public opinion the most by taking the Vick-less Falcons. I went with the crowd, taking the points and the Giants, even though I expect them to disappoint this year. Six is too much. Unfortunately I waited too long before taking the Raiders, and the spread moved a point. I chickened out on the Titans, Bears, Dolphins, Pats and Cardnails, to the point where I'm tempted to take the other side (except fro the Titans). Seattle is the big departure from my principles, as New England would have been, had I given the points.
Screw it. ten(+6)overJAX. Of the above picks, I'm in agreement with The Sports Guy on St Louis, Atlanta, Seattle, Oakland, and Tennessee. He pretty much talked me into Atlanta and Tennessee. I don't mind disagreeing with him, since while I tend to agree with his reasoning, he tends to be wrong.
My gut likes going against Buffalo, since they always seem to start off slowly, as do the Packers. They don't like to start winning until everyone writes them off. Is their home field advantage any good when it's still warm out?
Michigan and Notre Dame are both 0-2, sucking much of the local drama out of the young football season. Murphy's law likes the Irish in this year's matchups of the teams I hate, because Lloyd Carr may be on his way to getting fired, while Charlie Weiss' job looks secure. Murphy wants a disaster, and the Wolverines just may be that disaster. Though a win against Notre Dame wouldn't completely save them. The Big Ten may be an overrated house of mediocraty, but is it soft enough to let the Wolverines go 8-3 and salvage their year. I say no. 7-4? I say yes, though I am enjoying projecting them to 5-6....
posted by roQQ | 6:05 AM
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