Mansion in da House
Well, the WSOP main event is starting in about 3 days, and I'm on leave, but I won't be spending it in Vegas. i was 1/2 considering showing up to play in side games, since the place is supposed to be pretty target rich, but I was running pretty bad last weekend, so flying 14 hours or so to isolate myself in the desert with nothing to do but gamble seemed like it could be a mistake.
Meanwhile, my Mansion account finally has a cool G in it, with another G bonus pending me playing a few thousand hands or so. No sweat. The bank transfer took about a week to clear, and before I go back to the US I will have to take my $$ back out, but the action on the site seems to good to pass up. The average pot size routinely balloons out to double (and sometimes triple) what I am used to on other sites. At this point I suspect that the average pot size is calculated from the last 5 or so hands, instead of ten. That would explain the juicy stats. I was at some juicy tables though--I'm just not sure if the $300+ average pots (at $2-4 NL) were really legit.
I was checking my email and found something from bodog, which included a guide to Scotch. The guy writing it managed to divide Scotches up into 2 main types--single and blended. He managed to explain all this without using the word malt, at least not until about 3 paragraphs later. I was starting to wonder if he'd managed to "educate" himself without learning the word.
Bodog has a bunch of articles you can read to help educate you on everything from Scotch, to Vegas hotspots, to sports betting, to pulling off an Ocean's 13 style Casino heist (seriously). Some are more helpful than others. One particularly interesting mixed bag I discovered was a short treatise on contrarian betting. The advice was good, in theory at least. It explained how handicappers make the line with the public in mind, so it is therefore usually sensible to go the opposed way. Good solid advice. Great.
The problem was that the premise for this advice was as something to consider before betting on the 2007 NBA Finals, which makes it look like bodog is trying to drum up support for the Cavs. The advice was great, but if applied here it would probably be disasterous. I don't know how the Cavs did against the spread, but we all know how the series went.
Meanwhile, the fact that Mansion, like bet365 and bodog is an online sportsbook & casino means I now have over $1000 that I can bet on sports, so maybe I'll start writing more about sports again. After the Tigers' World Series collapse, and my own handicapping collapse in the NFL playoffs, I didn't much feel like writing. (And my bodog bankroll was devastated, as it still is.)
On that note, lets check the standings:
AL......................W......L.... RS......RA..........RD....bodog....Mansion
Boston..............51.....29...404.....319......+85.......8-5................3-1
Anaheim*........51.....32....419.....356......+63.......3-1.............19-4
Cleveland.........51....32....449.....383......+66.......3-1............... 6-1
Detroit.............47.....34.....476.....391......+85......3-1..............25-4
Seattle.............45.....35....400....400......even...20-1..............21-1
Oakland...........43.....40....370.....327.......+43....18-1.............27-2
Minnesota.......42......40...388.....367.......+21.....10-1.............27-2
NYYankees.....39......41....420....363.......+57.......7-1...............5-1
The odds under bodog and Mansion are all AL pennant odds. I believe you can bet against the teams on Mansion, which may explain the somewhat fairer odds. I'm thinking I need to take some Yankee bets. I'm not saying you should count these guys out, but 5-1? That puts them a tick below Anaheim* and above Cleveland and Detroit. Ridiculous. By the way, A-Rod just got injured. Strained hamstring. He played the next day. Hopefully he keeps playing, his hitting cools off, and he reinjures the hammy.
Looking at the runs scored/allowed, the Yankees should be doing much better than they are. Their numbers are a mirror image of Anaheim, just as Cleveland and Detroit match one another. based on run differential, they are the only team that belongs with the first four. As strange as the Yankees' poor record relative to their RD (and far more disturbing, at least for me) is the fact that Seattle is only 1 1/2 games behind the Tigers, despite having failed to outscore their opposition at all. Ick.
Minnesota really looks like a suckers bet at 10-1, since they are a 1/2 game behind Oakland, who are 18-1. Given that Oakland's RD is double that of the Twins, the fact that they only have one team to catch in their divison, rather than two, and Oakland's tendancy to surge after the all-star break (granted, the Twins had a big surge last year; Oakland seems to have one every year. Unfortunately, on Mansion, where you can take action on these things (I think) both these teams get the same odds. I need to find out how this works.
Soon I'll check the NL standings. Or go on a bender. Whatever.
Meanwhile, my Mansion account finally has a cool G in it, with another G bonus pending me playing a few thousand hands or so. No sweat. The bank transfer took about a week to clear, and before I go back to the US I will have to take my $$ back out, but the action on the site seems to good to pass up. The average pot size routinely balloons out to double (and sometimes triple) what I am used to on other sites. At this point I suspect that the average pot size is calculated from the last 5 or so hands, instead of ten. That would explain the juicy stats. I was at some juicy tables though--I'm just not sure if the $300+ average pots (at $2-4 NL) were really legit.
I was checking my email and found something from bodog, which included a guide to Scotch. The guy writing it managed to divide Scotches up into 2 main types--single and blended. He managed to explain all this without using the word malt, at least not until about 3 paragraphs later. I was starting to wonder if he'd managed to "educate" himself without learning the word.
Bodog has a bunch of articles you can read to help educate you on everything from Scotch, to Vegas hotspots, to sports betting, to pulling off an Ocean's 13 style Casino heist (seriously). Some are more helpful than others. One particularly interesting mixed bag I discovered was a short treatise on contrarian betting. The advice was good, in theory at least. It explained how handicappers make the line with the public in mind, so it is therefore usually sensible to go the opposed way. Good solid advice. Great.
The problem was that the premise for this advice was as something to consider before betting on the 2007 NBA Finals, which makes it look like bodog is trying to drum up support for the Cavs. The advice was great, but if applied here it would probably be disasterous. I don't know how the Cavs did against the spread, but we all know how the series went.
Meanwhile, the fact that Mansion, like bet365 and bodog is an online sportsbook & casino means I now have over $1000 that I can bet on sports, so maybe I'll start writing more about sports again. After the Tigers' World Series collapse, and my own handicapping collapse in the NFL playoffs, I didn't much feel like writing. (And my bodog bankroll was devastated, as it still is.)
On that note, lets check the standings:
AL......................W......L.... RS......RA..........RD....bodog....Mansion
Boston..............51.....29...404.....319......+85.......8-5................3-1
Anaheim*........51.....32....419.....356......+63.......3-1.............19-4
Cleveland.........51....32....449.....383......+66.......3-1............... 6-1
Detroit.............47.....34.....476.....391......+85......3-1..............25-4
Seattle.............45.....35....400....400......even...20-1..............21-1
Oakland...........43.....40....370.....327.......+43....18-1.............27-2
Minnesota.......42......40...388.....367.......+21.....10-1.............27-2
NYYankees.....39......41....420....363.......+57.......7-1...............5-1
The odds under bodog and Mansion are all AL pennant odds. I believe you can bet against the teams on Mansion, which may explain the somewhat fairer odds. I'm thinking I need to take some Yankee bets. I'm not saying you should count these guys out, but 5-1? That puts them a tick below Anaheim* and above Cleveland and Detroit. Ridiculous. By the way, A-Rod just got injured. Strained hamstring. He played the next day. Hopefully he keeps playing, his hitting cools off, and he reinjures the hammy.
Looking at the runs scored/allowed, the Yankees should be doing much better than they are. Their numbers are a mirror image of Anaheim, just as Cleveland and Detroit match one another. based on run differential, they are the only team that belongs with the first four. As strange as the Yankees' poor record relative to their RD (and far more disturbing, at least for me) is the fact that Seattle is only 1 1/2 games behind the Tigers, despite having failed to outscore their opposition at all. Ick.
Minnesota really looks like a suckers bet at 10-1, since they are a 1/2 game behind Oakland, who are 18-1. Given that Oakland's RD is double that of the Twins, the fact that they only have one team to catch in their divison, rather than two, and Oakland's tendancy to surge after the all-star break (granted, the Twins had a big surge last year; Oakland seems to have one every year. Unfortunately, on Mansion, where you can take action on these things (I think) both these teams get the same odds. I need to find out how this works.
Soon I'll check the NL standings. Or go on a bender. Whatever.
posted by roQQ | 7:54 AM
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