Breaking the Silence

I tend to have less to say between the Super Bowl and Baseball's Opening Day. This is probably due in part to recent Super Bowl results (I had a rooting interest in the Bears, and I still haven't come to grips with the manner of the Seahawks' wretched loss last year....or I at least have not yet vented in this space), and in part because I am not as interested in hoops or hockey.

Certainly I am not as interested in betting on them.

Meanwhile, I currently have Korean cable, and have been fed a steady stream of English Premiere League games. At the beginning of the EPL season I got a couple of bets down on Tottenham Hotspur, one to win the EPL, and one to finish ahead of everyone other than Chelsea, ManU, Liverpool and Arsenal.

I had an inkling that the EPL was not particularly balanced, simply from reading the odds, and from noting the fact that you can bet on who will finish first other than Chelsea, or who will win other than the aforementioned four clubs (commonly referred to as "The Big Four," and deservedly so--more on this later). I believe you could also bet on who would finish first other than Chelsea and ManU.

At this point I am utterly convinced that taking anyone outside of the Big 4 to win the EPL is strictly a sucker's bet. Man U and Chelsea have far outstripped their rivals this year, and I have little doubt that if they both somehow falter next season, Liverpool or Arsenal will be the benificiaries (sp?). While some other club might manage to break into the top four, or maybe even the top three, they will come no closer to the top than that. Before Chelsea broke through and won the Premiereship in 04-05, and 05-06 they finished 6th, 4th, 4th, and 2nd. Jumps from 5th or 6th to 1st in one season don't seem to happen.

As for my bets on Tottenham, not only did they fail to break into the Big 4, they are currently behind Bolton, Everton and Portsmouth, and are tied with Reading. Now, all these teams are clustered within two wins of one another, so Tottenham are not quite so out of it as you might think, but the season probably still has to be considered a disappointment.

Meanwhile, as of the Champions League final eight, Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool were the three with the shortest odds on bodog.com. While the gamblers on this site certainly have an English bias, the three did not disappoint, and AC Milan rounds out the final four as the three English teams advanced.

Currently the odds to win the Champions League are:

Manchester United 2-1
Chelsea FC 2-1
Liverpool FC 3-1
AC Milan 4-1

At this point I pretty much discount the pro-English bias, as AC Milan are currently sitting in 5th place in the Italian Serie A Table, and Manchester United just dismantled Roma, who are 15 points ahead of AC Milan, by a combined 8-3. On the other hand, Roma managed to win the first game 2-1, so perhaps AC Milan's best chance is to get ahead early, before ManU has a chance to figure them out. Still, I think Man U should be the overall favorite, both because they figure to be a bit stronger than AC milan these days, and because Liverpool always seems to overperform in Europe, and they have pulled out some big wins against the Blues in the past as well.

Additionally, Chelsea is a mere three points behind Man U in the premiereship, and still has to play an FA Cup semifinal tonight against Blackburn (I took Chelsea to win at 1-2 odds) and hopefully an FA Cup final to follow, so they are not permitted to coast through the next couple of weeks, the way Liverpool coach Rafa Benitiez clams the Reds are NOT doing.

Liverpool 0-0 Manchester City--14 April 2007. Liverpool coasting? Naaahhhhh.

Currently I have on the replay of ManU's earlier 4-1 victory over Watford. Knew Chelsea would have to face those guys in the FA cup final, provided they win tonight that is. (And in the Champions League...and in the Premiereship...hopefully.) By the end of this season those guys should REALLY hate each other.

Earlier I was watching Football the way I like it, courtesy of Aston Villa and Middlesbrough, which is to say, with rival gambling websites proudly displayed on the chests of both teams. Middlesbrough are sponsored by 888.com, while Aston Villa are sponsored by 32RED.com. Also among those sponsored by gambling websites are Blackburn Rovers (bet24) and Tottenham Hotspur (Mansion). For my money Tottenham have the sharpest jerseys of the bunch, in part due to the attractive Mansion 'M' logo, but Aston Villa's 32RED logo deserves style points for the heart, club, diamond and spade displayed above the .com. I'm considering the purchase of a couple of these uniforms as part of my protest against the US government's banning of online gambling. We need to get 21st Century civilized like the English.

(It's also a drag to wear the Chelsea colors in Korea and have people think you are wearing some sort of Samsung Mobile shirt, which, I suppose I am. This is the sort of thing that makes me want to get a Newcastle United shirt--but one of the old ones, where they are sponsored by Newcastle Brown Ale, or a Hibernian jersey. Hibs are sponsored by Whyte and MacKay (sp?), a brand of Scotch. Yay Scotch! Previously they were sponsored by Carlsberg Lager, same as Liverpool. Thats right Hibees, stick with the booze. Incedentally, what better place to advertise your booze than on the chest of a Scottish soccer team? Maybe on a German team....for that matter, I wonder if Stolichnaya sponsors any of the Russian teams. Roman Abramovich should get them onto Chelsea's kit. That would be the shit...or bollocks as the case may be.)