AFC picks/ND Continues Streak
After toying with the idea of runjning with the dogs in the AFC (the Chiefs and Jets) for most of the week, the moment of truth has come, and I just can't do it. As much as I want to take a great running back against a terrible run defense, in the end I have to take Peyton Manning at home, especially against a team as lousy as the Chiefs have been on the road this year. Despite this I just may find myself whole-heartedly rooting for the Chiefs in this one. I'll be going against the Colts soon enough, but I think it is too soon. Of course, I thought that last year too.
INDY(-7)overkansascity. The worst scenario? The Colts win but don't cover. Yeah, that's what I was going to bet on before.
Meanwhile, I almost find the 8.5 point spread against the Jets insulting. Everyone was so quick to turn on them last year when injuries derailed their season, and this year people have been rather slow to take them seriously again. That having been said, who of these first round teams would you feel safe puting your money on? Really, the Pats and the Colts are the only ones. These days, just the Pats. The Colts are doomed, only te Chiefs probably won't be the ones to finish them off. Even if the Jets should be 5.5 or six point dogs, the line has to be bigger, because everyone wan't to take the Pats. How big a line would it take to scare off the bettors? Maybe 10, 10.5. 8.5 almost got me, but not quite. I was almost prepared to take the Jets, and count on their scrappiness to keep it close, until I remembered that they no longer have a running game. Ick. NEWENGLAND(-8.5)overnyjets.
That having been said, and having taken the favorites in both the NFC games, I am fairly certain that at least on undrdog will cover, and I tend to think one will win outright. If that happens, I have to think it will be the Cowboys or the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a tremendous advantage whenever they run the ball, and the Cowboys probably do have a more talented team than the Seahawks, which is why Bill Simmons picks them. But how many times has he gone against a team with a shaky, +/or rookie quarterback on the road, especially when the opposing team has as certifiable of a home-field advantage as the 'Hawks do? That having been said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Seahawks won by 2, or 4 (or lost). They weren't exactly blowing teams out last year. Why would they start now?
Simmons basically picks the Cowboys because they have more potential to got deep into the playoffs than the Seahawks do. I'm taking Seattle because I take the Cowboys' potential to choke very seriously, though not as seriously as I take that of the Giants. Simmons takes them because the number is too big. He has a point, but this is the only reason I can see to take the G-men. The best thing about a Giants victory would be watching them implode even more dramatically the following week. Kind of like the Colts, but I expect the Colts to go down in the second round, the Giants in the first.
Fuck it. I'm taking KC and the points. They just have to keep it close. The Colts don't blow teams out like they used to.
Hmmmmmmmmm. After all my concerns about LSU possibly being overrated, they blow out Notre Dame worse than USC or Michigan, 41-14. I guess you shouldn't measure a team by how they do against Ole Miss...or Notre Dame.
I have teased Ohio State and the over, as I expected to. I'm considering this for the Chiefs-Colts game, but will probably just pick the game, for the sake of tradition. This is the playoffs, after all.
INDY(-7)overkansascity. The worst scenario? The Colts win but don't cover. Yeah, that's what I was going to bet on before.
Meanwhile, I almost find the 8.5 point spread against the Jets insulting. Everyone was so quick to turn on them last year when injuries derailed their season, and this year people have been rather slow to take them seriously again. That having been said, who of these first round teams would you feel safe puting your money on? Really, the Pats and the Colts are the only ones. These days, just the Pats. The Colts are doomed, only te Chiefs probably won't be the ones to finish them off. Even if the Jets should be 5.5 or six point dogs, the line has to be bigger, because everyone wan't to take the Pats. How big a line would it take to scare off the bettors? Maybe 10, 10.5. 8.5 almost got me, but not quite. I was almost prepared to take the Jets, and count on their scrappiness to keep it close, until I remembered that they no longer have a running game. Ick. NEWENGLAND(-8.5)overnyjets.
That having been said, and having taken the favorites in both the NFC games, I am fairly certain that at least on undrdog will cover, and I tend to think one will win outright. If that happens, I have to think it will be the Cowboys or the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a tremendous advantage whenever they run the ball, and the Cowboys probably do have a more talented team than the Seahawks, which is why Bill Simmons picks them. But how many times has he gone against a team with a shaky, +/or rookie quarterback on the road, especially when the opposing team has as certifiable of a home-field advantage as the 'Hawks do? That having been said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Seahawks won by 2, or 4 (or lost). They weren't exactly blowing teams out last year. Why would they start now?
Simmons basically picks the Cowboys because they have more potential to got deep into the playoffs than the Seahawks do. I'm taking Seattle because I take the Cowboys' potential to choke very seriously, though not as seriously as I take that of the Giants. Simmons takes them because the number is too big. He has a point, but this is the only reason I can see to take the G-men. The best thing about a Giants victory would be watching them implode even more dramatically the following week. Kind of like the Colts, but I expect the Colts to go down in the second round, the Giants in the first.
Fuck it. I'm taking KC and the points. They just have to keep it close. The Colts don't blow teams out like they used to.
Hmmmmmmmmm. After all my concerns about LSU possibly being overrated, they blow out Notre Dame worse than USC or Michigan, 41-14. I guess you shouldn't measure a team by how they do against Ole Miss...or Notre Dame.
I have teased Ohio State and the over, as I expected to. I'm considering this for the Chiefs-Colts game, but will probably just pick the game, for the sake of tradition. This is the playoffs, after all.
posted by roQQ | 7:43 AM
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