Tigers Advance/roQQ Revels

RoQQ called from his lair to chortle about the Tigers' recent success, amd boast that he is now four games away from a big payoff. I told the prick to can it or he'd jinx the poor bastards, and that seemed to calm him down. Meanwhile, he has discovered teasers, some examples of which follow. He warned me that these should not be considered advice, though roQQ is betting on them himself.

Thanks, Mick. I won my bet on game one of Cardinals-Mets, as Glavine pitched New York to a 2-0 victory. Fortunately I didn't persist, as the Mets dropped the next two games and are poised to blow the series.

Meanwhile, I was predicting short LCSes, expecting to see the Tigers and Mets win in 4 or 5 games. Unfortunately, I bet on the Mets in 4, the Mets in 5, and the Tigers in 5. Naturally, the Tigers win in4, the only short series I didn't have money on, though the A's did their best to oblige me by jumping out to a 3-0 lead in game 4 before finally falling 6-3. Now, my intent was to wait until after game 1, and take the Tigers in 4 if they won. I wanted to wait to see if they beat Zito before taking the longshot, which it appears would have paid me at 8-1. Unfortunately I took a nap between work and the game, and forgot to get the bet in. After game 2 bodog never opened the betting again on that series. If they had no doubt the odds would have shrunk considerably, but still probably could have covered my other 3 bets.

If you are considering betting on a sweep,

1.) Make sure you are betting on a hot team.
2.) Preferably a hot team with dominant pitching (or a hot goalie).
3.) All else being equal, the odds of a sweep should be about 15-1. Of course, if two teams really are equal you might want to pick one of them in 7 instead. But consider the psychology of the sweep. How many times have you seen a team win game 4 when they are down 3-0? Not many, right? While these days teams may have visions of the '04 Red Sox dancing in their heads, chances are still pretty7 good that they will lay down in game 4. The odds of a 3 game sweep are 7-1, and I don't think the odds get much worse when you include a game four.

Now that the Mets have lost twice and can't win either of my series bets, I sort of want St. Louis to win, just because I don't really want to see the Mets play the Tigers. I don't really feel like rooting against the Mets, and I don't think they will give as good a fight as the Cardinals will, now that their decimated starting pitchng has exposed their relief pitching. Watching them play LA I really thought the Mets would be unstoppable offensively, but I didn't know about the arm on the Cardnails catcher. Have the Mets stolen anything yet? Bottom line, I don't want to wallow in what Bill Simmons likes to call sports bigamy. (As long as they don't play each other I am guilty of sports bigamy, but I'm not wallowing in it...Go tigers! Go Mets!)

I considered taking Michigan(-5to-6.5)overPENNSTATE, but held back. The Wolverines covered, 17-10, after leading 17-3. Michigan just hasn't shown the kind of domination I want to see before laying points to a Penn State team that may be out for revenge for last year. Oh, except for when they beat the tar out of Notre Dame, 47-21, that is. Remember that game as you fatten up on North Carolina and the service acadamies, you Fenian bastards!

Um...where was I? Right, no college picks again this week. I'm still

a.) Working too much
b.) Paying too much attention to MLB playoffs
c.) Rehabing after my performance 2 and 3 weeks ago.

But hey, that doesn't mean we can't knock out a few NFL bets before the games start! Fuck no.

cincy(-5.5)TAMPABAY/ o/u 44.5--
after teasing this game 7 points, I take cincy and the over--
cincy(+1.5)overTAMPA, over 37.5 The 7 point tease makes you risk 13 to win 10. I could have gotten slightly better odds for 6 or 6.5 points, but I think 38 points (the total of a 24-14 or 28-10 game) could be a pivotal number.

Meanwhile,

DALLAS(-13.5)overhouston Cowboys will beat Texans like a gong even as the inevitable T.O. implosion continues.

I want to tease Phily and the over at New Orleans, but bodog won't let me. Phily can't hold a lead with their lack of a power running game, so I would expect some scoring. Oh well...what else? nygiants(+3)overATLANTA? Nah. I don't trust either one of these teams, and with the Falcons playing low scoring games, and the Giants playing high scoring games, I can't decide wich way to tease either.

NYJETS(-3)overmiami Did the Jets lose 41-0 to Jacksonville last week? Yep. But I have alot of faith in Miami--to lose. I like Pennington over Harrington in the Meadowlands.

sandiego(-10)overSANFRAN Should the Niners be this big of a dog at home? We'll see. I'm tempted to tease this, but Charger games tend to go under, and Niner games over. For example, the 'Niners-Chiefs game made the over (39.5) as the Chiefs won, 41-0.

DENVER(-14.5)overoakland Denver is averageing 12.2 points per game, so I'm not wild about this spread, even vs the mighty Raiders. Solution? Tease it! DENVER(-7.5)overoakland, under 43. I'm tempted to do -8.5, under 42. These teams aren't scoring anywhere near 42 points.

chicago(-12)overARIZONA Hopefully I'm near a TV when the Bears defense roughs up Matt Leinart. Sould be fun to watch. The rookie could outperform Kurt Warner and still suffer through 5 sacks, two picks and a fumble--realize that I'm talking about a respectable QB performance here--it could be worse.

So, we'll see if I am teasing, being teased, or what. This concept seems to be stimulating action from this degenerate gambler...