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Has our hero hit rock bottom? He is hoping that his online sportsbook/poker accounts have hit bottom, but you can always go lower....They say that you have to hit rock bottom before you get help for an addiction, but if the addiction is profitable...

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Saturday, November 18, 2006

Well, Kansas City managed a little comeback last week, and only lost 13-10. Still lost, still didn't cover. Great. In the late game, Denver managed to get behind 13-7, before coming back. I was really hoping they would get a field goal, so they would trail 13-10. Then they would need another score, which would hopefully be a touchdown, which would put them ahaead of my teased spread. Otherwise, a field goal to tie the game at 13 would require another score, which, as long as it was more than a field goal (and was scored by Denver, rather than Oakland), would also make the Broncos cover.

Unfortunately, Denver got a touchdown, and took the lead 14-13. This was the only scenario where Denver would have the lead without covering my teased spread. I was hoping for a field goal (at least) at this point, as I watched the tail end of season 1 of Weeds. Eventually I looked over at my computer, and discovered that Denver had kicked another field goal as I watched suburbanites smoke their way to Krypton. Go Broncos! Denver held on and won 17-13, managing to come abck without hitting the over. Apparantly my money wasn't safe with Jake the Snake (there's a shock), but Denver did come through, salvaging my weekend.

This weekend I'm tempted to lay the 9.5 on KANSAS CITY over oakland, since the Chiefs do have a nasty homefield advantage at Arrowhead. My close call at Oakland last week, along with KC's disappointing performance at Miami has dissuaded me however.

Meanwhile, indy is a point and a half favorite at DALLAS, and I don't see HOW anyone can NOT take the Colts. Bill Simmons says he likes Dallas in this game, more or less admits this is bizzare, but doesn't explain his pick at all. Maybe this falls under his new rule from last week where you go with the underdogs unless it pains you to do so. Well, it would pain me to take Dallas here. I know Indy has its weaknesses, and that they probably won't make it through the season unbeaten, but is Dallas the team to exploit these weaknesses? They are 0-3 in their division. Tremendous. I suspect Simmons wants to pick the week Indy loses so he will look clever. Well, if this week doesn't work out he's got six more chances.

Meanwhile, in the game of the century, #1 OHIO STATE is favored by seven over #2 michigan, and based on their performances this year, I think the Buckeyes deserve to be favored by every point of this spread. On the other hand, Michigan managed to jump out to a lead last year without Mike Hart. If I'm Michigan I may not feel safe with a ten point lead here, but I'd feel pretty good with an extra seven points. Strangely enough, Bo Schembechler managed to die the day before the game. If his death doesn't give Michigan a psychological edge going into this game I don't know what will. Will it be enough to beat OSU? I've taken michigan(+7)overOHIOSTATE.

The second half of Michigan State-Penn State has just started (MSU leads 13-7) and bodog is now allowing teases on OSU--U-M! (They weren't before.) I have just taken two teasers. I've taken Michigan and the over, and Ohio State and the over. What does this mean? I'll tell you.

Michigan and the over: The over/under is currently 42. With a 7 point tease, this bet is michigan(+14)overOHIOSTATE, over 35.

Ohio State and the over: Again, the over/under is 42 (earlier it was 40.5). 7 the other way gives me OHIOSTATE(pick)overmichigan, over 35.

Watch. Ohio State will win 20-14, I will cover the spread both ways, and the under will come in despite the tease. Or worse, OSU wins 21-13, and I lose all three of my bets. Great.

Currently auburn(-2.5)ALABAMA is the line for that rivalry game. Earlier in the week Auburn was favored by three, but when I bet on the game a couple of hours ago the spread was down to two, so I have auburn(-2)over'BAMA. Auburn is an atrocious 1-7 vs. the spread in their last 8 games, but this really feels like an 8 or 9 point game to me. Rivalry upsets notwithstanding, I really think Auburn can squeeze out a 3 point victory here.

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