No Shuffle for Wild Cards
Ugh. The NFL playoffs are here, and I can't really say I'm excited to see three games that just took place last week. What little mystery there is hinges on the assumption that the losers of last week's matchups were all sandbagging.
Were they? I took cincinnati(+10)over NYJETS based on intel that the Bengals were going to try to win, and I'm still hearing that they were trying, at least at first. The Jets 37-0 victory probably made a deeper impression on me because I lost $$ on it, but it is what it is.
I expected the Bengals to be favored by 2 or 2.5, given that they are now at home, but they looked like shit last week on the road. The line opened at CINCY(-4), and has dropped to 2.5-3, except at Legends, where it's all the way down to BENGALS(-1). Is it worth it to open an account with them if you want to take Cincy? Don't ask me, I got
nyjets(+3)over CINCINNATI. Chad Johnson is banged up, Darrelle Revis is running wild in the Jet secondary, and I really like the Jet defense and running game. I was never impressed with Thomas Jones a couple of years ago, but at this point my theory is that his problem was he was playing for the Bears. This theory would also explain the resurgence of Cincy RB Cedric Benson, as well as Jay Cutler's disappointing '09 season.
If you check the stats, what you find is that aside from their glaring weakness, the Jets are the best team in the playoffs. They are by far the top defense this year (by about 500 fewer yards allowed) and have by far the top running game of any of theplayoff teams, averaging 35 more yards on the ground than the Ravens. Of course, they accumulate so many yards on the ground because they can't trust Mark Sanchez. While their defense is outstanding, their stats are augmented by their running game shortening their games.
Ultimately, the Jets are very one dimensional, and this makes them inherently vulnerable, especially if they get behind on the road with a rookie quarterback. On the other hand there isn't anything in particular that Cincy does that scares me. Earler in the year I could have pointed to Cedric Benson, but I don't think he's done nearly as well since his injury. Give me the points.
I took NEW ENGLAND(+3.5)over baltimore. I've been hoping the Ravens would squeak into the playoffs so I could bet against them, and I got my wish. Having said that, I've been getting more and more nervous about this pick ever since I made it. I tend to see the Pats either winning by 9 or 10, or barely winning or losing on the final drive. The wa they've been playing, I'm starting to lean towards the latter, which means I probably should have taken the Ravens. On the other hand, it seems like Baltimore's offense has turned into Ray Rice right, Ray Rice left, Ray Rice in the flat. The Ravens will need to do something else successfully on offense if they are going to win. Their defense improved as the year went on, and they finished behind only the Jets and the Packers, but this is not the dominant defense we have come to expect from the Ravens. Rex Ryan deserves credit for their previous success, jsut as he deserves credit for the Jets' success this year.
On paper the Ravens look much better than 9-7. They are 3rd in total defense, and have the 5th best running game in the league. They are 6th in net points, and have outscored supposed offensive juggernauts like the Cardnails and Texans. This points to alot of choke in their DNA. As questionable as the Pats have been this year, I wouldn't want to go against them when they're playing a choker.
In the end, I guess I'm hoping that Joe Flacco stinks it up in some crappy New England weather on the road. Bill Belicheck having the sense to run occasionally would also be nice. I know I'm asking for alot.
This line opened at 4, and seems to have settled at 3.5. I don't think it will move from there, unless it goes back up on game day.
Arizona decided they had nothing to play for last week, and let Matt Leinert stink it up. Even so, the Packers win was only the last of many, including a 48-10 drubbing of the admittedly terrible Seattle Seahawks, and a Monday night win over the Ravens with the help of some admittedly terrible refereeing. If these refs could find some black and white striped cheeseheads they would have worn them.
The Packers last loss was to the Steelers on the last play of the game. While this road loss may lead you to worry about the Packers prospects away from Lambeau in the playoffs, they won't face anyone as clutch as Ben Roethlesberger in the playoffs. Neither will anyone else. Nobody is as clutch as Big Ben. Except Robert Horry. And David Ortiz, when he was on the juice. Allegedly, I mean.
The players you could argue are that clutch are all in the AFC, hampered by shoddy defenses and shaky running games. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself.
This line opened at 2.5, and I was lucky enough to get green bay(+3)over ARIZONA. The line fluctuated a bit, but now is down to Arizona(-1), about where I whought it would open.
Arizona's passing game, while always dangerous (wxcept when Leinert plays), was only 11th in the league this year, while their running game was 29th. They were 20th in total defense. The only thing going against the Packers is that they have to travel to Green Bay and back this week.
The most interesting repeat from last week is Philadelphia at Dallas. The Eagles actually had something to play for, since a win would have gotten them the 2 seed, but they seem to have given up once they got behind, on their way to a 24-0 loss. The Cowboys rank only a little ahead of the Eagles in total defense, but they are 5.5 ahead per game in points allowed. Philly leads them by a similar margin in scoring, so I don't make too much of this. On the other hand, the Eagles are 22nd in rushing, compared to 7th for the Cowboys.
If the Eagles have an edge, it would seem to be the big play capabilities of DeSean Jackson, but Miles Austin and Patrick Clayton have played a similar role for the Cowboys, and their chances are improved by the Dallas running game, which the Eagles will be forced to respect. Right now Dallas appears to have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines, and the Eagles just lost their starting center to an injury, which ought to reinforce their edge.
The line opened at DALLAS(-4)philadelphia. It dropped to 3.5, and looked like it could go lower. I waited, but now the line seems to be solidly back at 4. Earleir in the season I swore off betting on Eagles games, since I always got them wrong. I took the Eagles last week, and they promptly lost. Now I'm looking at Dallas, but don't want to give 4 points. I feel like this won't be a close game however. I think one team or the other loses by 17, after which a bunch of coaches get pink slips. These games always seem to end in demoralization and humiliation, perhaps because the stakes are always that much higher than in similar rivalries.
So, I may sit this one out, though I usually bet all the playoff games. I don't want to jinx the Cowboys, now that I have Dallas at 11/2 to win the NFC, and 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. I also took Green Bay at 9/1 to win the NFC, and 22/1 to win the Super Bowl. I think these are the teams that represent real value at this point, while the favored Saints and Vikings have been slipping. I feel like one of these teams gets to the NFC Championship, since the top seeds never seem to make it, and since the NFC seems to go to the hot team in recent years. The Vikings did stop losing long enough to humiliate the Giants, but so did the Carolina Panthers.
I took Iowa(+4)over Georgia Tech, and when the line moved to 5.5, I doubled up on the Hawkeyes, who won the Orange Bowl, 24-14.
I forgot to bet Central Michigan(-3.5)over Troy, and my computer was slow enough to keep me from getting $$ down before the kickoff. Right Now the teams are 41-41 in the 2nd OT, and CMU has blocked a Trojan FG, so I suspect the Chippewas will kick a FG and fail to cover. Hooray for slow Cuban internet! CMU just won, 44-41. I guess the OVER came in.
Were they? I took cincinnati(+10)over NYJETS based on intel that the Bengals were going to try to win, and I'm still hearing that they were trying, at least at first. The Jets 37-0 victory probably made a deeper impression on me because I lost $$ on it, but it is what it is.
I expected the Bengals to be favored by 2 or 2.5, given that they are now at home, but they looked like shit last week on the road. The line opened at CINCY(-4), and has dropped to 2.5-3, except at Legends, where it's all the way down to BENGALS(-1). Is it worth it to open an account with them if you want to take Cincy? Don't ask me, I got
nyjets(+3)over CINCINNATI. Chad Johnson is banged up, Darrelle Revis is running wild in the Jet secondary, and I really like the Jet defense and running game. I was never impressed with Thomas Jones a couple of years ago, but at this point my theory is that his problem was he was playing for the Bears. This theory would also explain the resurgence of Cincy RB Cedric Benson, as well as Jay Cutler's disappointing '09 season.
If you check the stats, what you find is that aside from their glaring weakness, the Jets are the best team in the playoffs. They are by far the top defense this year (by about 500 fewer yards allowed) and have by far the top running game of any of theplayoff teams, averaging 35 more yards on the ground than the Ravens. Of course, they accumulate so many yards on the ground because they can't trust Mark Sanchez. While their defense is outstanding, their stats are augmented by their running game shortening their games.
Ultimately, the Jets are very one dimensional, and this makes them inherently vulnerable, especially if they get behind on the road with a rookie quarterback. On the other hand there isn't anything in particular that Cincy does that scares me. Earler in the year I could have pointed to Cedric Benson, but I don't think he's done nearly as well since his injury. Give me the points.
I took NEW ENGLAND(+3.5)over baltimore. I've been hoping the Ravens would squeak into the playoffs so I could bet against them, and I got my wish. Having said that, I've been getting more and more nervous about this pick ever since I made it. I tend to see the Pats either winning by 9 or 10, or barely winning or losing on the final drive. The wa they've been playing, I'm starting to lean towards the latter, which means I probably should have taken the Ravens. On the other hand, it seems like Baltimore's offense has turned into Ray Rice right, Ray Rice left, Ray Rice in the flat. The Ravens will need to do something else successfully on offense if they are going to win. Their defense improved as the year went on, and they finished behind only the Jets and the Packers, but this is not the dominant defense we have come to expect from the Ravens. Rex Ryan deserves credit for their previous success, jsut as he deserves credit for the Jets' success this year.
On paper the Ravens look much better than 9-7. They are 3rd in total defense, and have the 5th best running game in the league. They are 6th in net points, and have outscored supposed offensive juggernauts like the Cardnails and Texans. This points to alot of choke in their DNA. As questionable as the Pats have been this year, I wouldn't want to go against them when they're playing a choker.
In the end, I guess I'm hoping that Joe Flacco stinks it up in some crappy New England weather on the road. Bill Belicheck having the sense to run occasionally would also be nice. I know I'm asking for alot.
This line opened at 4, and seems to have settled at 3.5. I don't think it will move from there, unless it goes back up on game day.
Arizona decided they had nothing to play for last week, and let Matt Leinert stink it up. Even so, the Packers win was only the last of many, including a 48-10 drubbing of the admittedly terrible Seattle Seahawks, and a Monday night win over the Ravens with the help of some admittedly terrible refereeing. If these refs could find some black and white striped cheeseheads they would have worn them.
The Packers last loss was to the Steelers on the last play of the game. While this road loss may lead you to worry about the Packers prospects away from Lambeau in the playoffs, they won't face anyone as clutch as Ben Roethlesberger in the playoffs. Neither will anyone else. Nobody is as clutch as Big Ben. Except Robert Horry. And David Ortiz, when he was on the juice. Allegedly, I mean.
The players you could argue are that clutch are all in the AFC, hampered by shoddy defenses and shaky running games. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself.
This line opened at 2.5, and I was lucky enough to get green bay(+3)over ARIZONA. The line fluctuated a bit, but now is down to Arizona(-1), about where I whought it would open.
Arizona's passing game, while always dangerous (wxcept when Leinert plays), was only 11th in the league this year, while their running game was 29th. They were 20th in total defense. The only thing going against the Packers is that they have to travel to Green Bay and back this week.
The most interesting repeat from last week is Philadelphia at Dallas. The Eagles actually had something to play for, since a win would have gotten them the 2 seed, but they seem to have given up once they got behind, on their way to a 24-0 loss. The Cowboys rank only a little ahead of the Eagles in total defense, but they are 5.5 ahead per game in points allowed. Philly leads them by a similar margin in scoring, so I don't make too much of this. On the other hand, the Eagles are 22nd in rushing, compared to 7th for the Cowboys.
If the Eagles have an edge, it would seem to be the big play capabilities of DeSean Jackson, but Miles Austin and Patrick Clayton have played a similar role for the Cowboys, and their chances are improved by the Dallas running game, which the Eagles will be forced to respect. Right now Dallas appears to have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines, and the Eagles just lost their starting center to an injury, which ought to reinforce their edge.
The line opened at DALLAS(-4)philadelphia. It dropped to 3.5, and looked like it could go lower. I waited, but now the line seems to be solidly back at 4. Earleir in the season I swore off betting on Eagles games, since I always got them wrong. I took the Eagles last week, and they promptly lost. Now I'm looking at Dallas, but don't want to give 4 points. I feel like this won't be a close game however. I think one team or the other loses by 17, after which a bunch of coaches get pink slips. These games always seem to end in demoralization and humiliation, perhaps because the stakes are always that much higher than in similar rivalries.
So, I may sit this one out, though I usually bet all the playoff games. I don't want to jinx the Cowboys, now that I have Dallas at 11/2 to win the NFC, and 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. I also took Green Bay at 9/1 to win the NFC, and 22/1 to win the Super Bowl. I think these are the teams that represent real value at this point, while the favored Saints and Vikings have been slipping. I feel like one of these teams gets to the NFC Championship, since the top seeds never seem to make it, and since the NFC seems to go to the hot team in recent years. The Vikings did stop losing long enough to humiliate the Giants, but so did the Carolina Panthers.
I took Iowa(+4)over Georgia Tech, and when the line moved to 5.5, I doubled up on the Hawkeyes, who won the Orange Bowl, 24-14.
I forgot to bet Central Michigan(-3.5)over Troy, and my computer was slow enough to keep me from getting $$ down before the kickoff. Right Now the teams are 41-41 in the 2nd OT, and CMU has blocked a Trojan FG, so I suspect the Chippewas will kick a FG and fail to cover. Hooray for slow Cuban internet! CMU just won, 44-41. I guess the OVER came in.
posted by roQQ | 6:28 PM
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