One more Dog than Fezzik

It's Saturday, about a half-hour from game time, and my bets are in. We'll go in order of the games. arizona(+7)over NEW ORLEANS. The top handicapper anywhere, who goes by the handle of "Fezzik," says he likes the Saints, citing their statistical supiority. I just think the stats go out the window when Kurt Warner is on a heater. Warner went 29 of 33 last week for five touchdowns. That's four incompletions, and five touchdowns. The Cardnails only had five 3rd downs the entire game. How you like those stats, Fezzik? The Saints have made a habit of not covering the second half of the season too. Even if you look past their three consecutive losses, I don't think you can ignore their failure to cover. Same thing happened with the Pats two years ago. If you were fading the Pats you could ride their failures to cover all the way to the Super Bowl.

I predicted the line would be about 5.5, and would adjust from there. Instead it started at seven and hasn't budged. I may have taken the Cards +3.5 or 4, so I'll take the 7.

baltimore(+7)over INDIANAPOLIS. I picked this line correctly. I'd been hoping the Ravens would make the playoffs just so I could bet against them, as I did last week. Didn't work out so well. I've been predicting another Colts choke in the playoffs. While this may not be the week, this is the game where they should show the most rust. I think they're vulnerable, and I don't really feel like laying seven with a vulnerable team. The Ravens could have won the last one, and barely lost, 17-15. I think last week's win blew some new life into the Ravens, along with some confidence. Momentum? Maybe. The smart money seems to like the Ravens, and the line most places is down to 6 or 6.5. I took the Ravens when the line came out, but bodog hasn't dropped ityet, so I guess I could have waited. I question whether the public $$ is going to come in on the Colts or not. I figure it would have happened by now. Fezzik loves this bet more than I do, citing a bunch of stats that I won't bore you with. Anybody with a pulse knows the Ravens have a better running game, and a better defense. Peyton Manning is the reason the Colts will win, but everything else points to a Ravens cover.

dallas(+3)over MINNESOTA This could go either way, but I'll take the team that has been playing better. Better than anyone else in the league, if you ask me. Throw in the the Vikings haven't been playing as well at the end of the year, aside from blowing out the Giants. Of course, the Carolina Panthers showed them how to do this the previous week...right after they handled the Vikings. I took* the Cowboys to win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl before they beat the Eagles, at 11/2 and 10/1 respectively. Now their Super Bowl odds are down to 6/1, same as the Vikings. I got on that bandwagon before the buzz about Dallas became a deafening roar. Fezzik seems to like the Cowboys, but didn't sound committed. I wouldn't be surprised if he only bet the other 3 games, since he sounded much more opionionated about those. Most places this line is down to 2.5, but bodog still has it at 3.

Tim Hightower scored on the first play from scrimmage. Shades of Ray Rice. Shoulda took the over (57.5).

nyjets(+8)over SAN DIEGO I predicted this line would start at 10, and go higher. It opened at 9 some places, and 7.5 in others. I took the jets(+8) a few days ago, and now most places you can only find 7.5 or even 7. The Jets must have impressed the bettors last week, though there is still time for the public to bring it back the other way. The Jets match up really well against the Chargers, as the soft San Diego run defense could have a tough time stopping Thomas Jones and Shonn Green, and Phillip Rivers will have to throw into the teeth of a secondary that has allowed only eight passing touchdowns all year. Everybody seems to be talking about how they don't trust Mark Sanchez, but the bettors may be looking at how many close games the Chargers have played...actually it wasn't that many--five by a touchdown or less, and two more by eight. Right now I'm glad I have eight. I guess I'd like it even better if I had 9. When I guessed the line I was planning on taking the Chargers, but I guess I've talked myself out of it. I've taken all the dogs. I figure one of these favorites will cover, but I don't want to try to figure out which one. As long as two of them don't, I'm good.

The Saints drove down and scored, and the Cards turned it over on the next play. New Orleans scored again with the short field.

The Saints just scored again. 21-7. Reggie Bush just broke one for about 45 yards. Right now Fezzik looks like a genius. He usually does.

* This morning I said on the air that I "banged the Cowboys." Didn't sound right, as my co-hosts let me know. In fact, now that I think about it, "took" doesn't sound so good right now either. Of course, this wouldn't be the first time I made gay jokes about Cowboys, Dallas or otherise.