I Conn myself
Florida State opened as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Clemson, and that number has jumped to 5, as it should, in my estimation. Since five is just the sort of number the road dog can sneak under in a close game, im teasing down to FLORIDA STATE(pick)over clemson, over 128. As long as a defensive struggle doesn't erupt...make that emerge, this should go over.
In a similar matchup, I'm taking a dissimilar tack. Chad Millman remarked just before the Super Bowl that alot of the sharps in Vegas were betting the Colts moneyline, and then taking the Saints and the points. He said that the moneyline odds were more generous than usual in this game becaue of the increased action. While this seems counterintuitive to me, since so much of the action was on Indy (though alot of moneyline action tends to come in on the dog, since gamblers prefer to chase the big payout), I'm trying a similar tactic for Louisville at UConn. I've taken the UConn moneyline (UCONN -180), and louisville(-5)over UCONN. Unfortunately, I've just checked my bets, and unless UConn wins but fails to cover, I'm going to lose. Right now UConn is up, 28-19. Back to the drawing board. Shoulda taken UConn and not tried to outthink myself.
I also should have taken PENN ST(-2)over northwestern. N'western's win vs. Iowa made too big of an impression on me, and scared me off. That and the game started early, and I got up late. I should have researched Penn State a bit more though, and a bit sooner. These are the matchups that make college hoops so profitable. If I simply took every home team who was favored by 2.5 or less, and every home dog who was a 2.5 point dog or less, I would probably show a profit.
The result? Penn State, 79-60.
While Fla St is still favored by 5 elsewhere, bodog has upped them to 5.5. I feel like they aren't really a public team in hoops, so I suspect the line moves re from sharp $$, but I suppose ultimately I'm guessing.
Louisville just drained a 3 to bring it to 45-40 at the half. Maybe the Cardnails will keep me from making a fool out of myself. Not an easy task.
Full Tilt has a new thing called "Rush Poker." They throw you into a pool with a bunch of other players, and let you quick fold and immediately move to another table for another hand. You can literally play as fast as you want, slowing down only to play hands you like, and your blinds. If you don't bother to defend your blinds, it gets even faster.
What does all this mean from a strategic standpoint? Well, first of all, there is no metagame. Unless you find a small pool, where you can recognize players from previous hands, there is almost no chance to track the tendencies of other players, so this aspect of poker is pretty much eliminated. On the other hand, this minimizes the need to disguise your own play.
On the other hand, anyone who uses a program to track the play of their opponents may reap immense benefits from this, since they could be the only ones keeping track. I wonder if these programs can track 500+ players at once, since they do get this big. At the moment I'm in a pool with 648 players, for instance.
Louisville is now up 55-50. Ridiculous.
Where was I? Oh yeah. What can you do to take advantage of this new format? Here are some suggestions.
1.) Stay aware of position. Stay tight in early position. After all, you could be in any position next hand, and the hands come as quickly as you want.
2.) Steal the blinds. Alot. Other players are using the quck-fold option all the time, and some of them are doing it even when they are in the blinds. Even if they wait to see if anybody raises, they are already ready to fold as soon as somebody does. I usually hold off until I'm in one of the last 3 positions, but back there I'll raise with just about anything. I tend to vary the size of my raises, but I've found that 2.5x the size of the BB is often enough.
3.) Back down to reraises. You almost have to assume that a reraise means what it is supposed to mean. After all, how squirrley do you have to be with your blind steals for anybody to notice when you get a new group of players every hand? To reraise with nothing usually requires you to be fairly confident that your opponent is out of line. How confident can you be when you don't remember your opponent? It's like you're Eliza Dushku in Dollhouse...not only because you can't remember anything, but because your mind is turning into Jello.
4.) Slow the fuck down. Just because you can play at a breakneck speed, doesn't mean that you should. This style of play is exhausting. Let it exhaust your opponents. You don't need to keep moving. Just because you are surrounded by little fishes, swimming around, doesn't mean you have to be the shark. Be the croccidile instead. Lay there in the mud and wait for your prey. For your own sanity.
UConn just got the lead back, 70-68, 4 min left. The crowd is going mad, and these two teams jsut may save me from my own stupidity.
In a similar matchup, I'm taking a dissimilar tack. Chad Millman remarked just before the Super Bowl that alot of the sharps in Vegas were betting the Colts moneyline, and then taking the Saints and the points. He said that the moneyline odds were more generous than usual in this game becaue of the increased action. While this seems counterintuitive to me, since so much of the action was on Indy (though alot of moneyline action tends to come in on the dog, since gamblers prefer to chase the big payout), I'm trying a similar tactic for Louisville at UConn. I've taken the UConn moneyline (UCONN -180), and louisville(-5)over UCONN. Unfortunately, I've just checked my bets, and unless UConn wins but fails to cover, I'm going to lose. Right now UConn is up, 28-19. Back to the drawing board. Shoulda taken UConn and not tried to outthink myself.
I also should have taken PENN ST(-2)over northwestern. N'western's win vs. Iowa made too big of an impression on me, and scared me off. That and the game started early, and I got up late. I should have researched Penn State a bit more though, and a bit sooner. These are the matchups that make college hoops so profitable. If I simply took every home team who was favored by 2.5 or less, and every home dog who was a 2.5 point dog or less, I would probably show a profit.
The result? Penn State, 79-60.
While Fla St is still favored by 5 elsewhere, bodog has upped them to 5.5. I feel like they aren't really a public team in hoops, so I suspect the line moves re from sharp $$, but I suppose ultimately I'm guessing.
Louisville just drained a 3 to bring it to 45-40 at the half. Maybe the Cardnails will keep me from making a fool out of myself. Not an easy task.
Full Tilt has a new thing called "Rush Poker." They throw you into a pool with a bunch of other players, and let you quick fold and immediately move to another table for another hand. You can literally play as fast as you want, slowing down only to play hands you like, and your blinds. If you don't bother to defend your blinds, it gets even faster.
What does all this mean from a strategic standpoint? Well, first of all, there is no metagame. Unless you find a small pool, where you can recognize players from previous hands, there is almost no chance to track the tendencies of other players, so this aspect of poker is pretty much eliminated. On the other hand, this minimizes the need to disguise your own play.
On the other hand, anyone who uses a program to track the play of their opponents may reap immense benefits from this, since they could be the only ones keeping track. I wonder if these programs can track 500+ players at once, since they do get this big. At the moment I'm in a pool with 648 players, for instance.
Louisville is now up 55-50. Ridiculous.
Where was I? Oh yeah. What can you do to take advantage of this new format? Here are some suggestions.
1.) Stay aware of position. Stay tight in early position. After all, you could be in any position next hand, and the hands come as quickly as you want.
2.) Steal the blinds. Alot. Other players are using the quck-fold option all the time, and some of them are doing it even when they are in the blinds. Even if they wait to see if anybody raises, they are already ready to fold as soon as somebody does. I usually hold off until I'm in one of the last 3 positions, but back there I'll raise with just about anything. I tend to vary the size of my raises, but I've found that 2.5x the size of the BB is often enough.
3.) Back down to reraises. You almost have to assume that a reraise means what it is supposed to mean. After all, how squirrley do you have to be with your blind steals for anybody to notice when you get a new group of players every hand? To reraise with nothing usually requires you to be fairly confident that your opponent is out of line. How confident can you be when you don't remember your opponent? It's like you're Eliza Dushku in Dollhouse...not only because you can't remember anything, but because your mind is turning into Jello.
4.) Slow the fuck down. Just because you can play at a breakneck speed, doesn't mean that you should. This style of play is exhausting. Let it exhaust your opponents. You don't need to keep moving. Just because you are surrounded by little fishes, swimming around, doesn't mean you have to be the shark. Be the croccidile instead. Lay there in the mud and wait for your prey. For your own sanity.
UConn just got the lead back, 70-68, 4 min left. The crowd is going mad, and these two teams jsut may save me from my own stupidity.
posted by roQQ | 11:15 AM
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