Last minute wagers...
The Tuesday night games are underway, and whaddya know? I've made 3 bets on the early games. SOUTH FLORIDA(-3)over cincinnati. Check Cincy's road record lately. They drop way off on the road vs. Big East competition. I have no read on the o/u (130) for this game, but based on recent trends I like USF to win by 8 or 10.
I've been big on fading Michigan State this year, and I sorta like Indiana to cover against the underachieving Spartans...in fact, if it wasn't too late, I might bet INDIANA(+11.5)over state...having perused these teams' previous scores, I like michigan state(-11.5), under 139 in a parlay. Basically I think State will either undrachieve and win by 6 or 7, or they'll blow the Hoosiers out. In a blowout I think Indiana doesn't score enough points for the over. I'd consider parlaying it the other way (Indiana and the over), but I don't think a close game is any guarantee of a high score. I don't think a blowout is a guarantee of an under either, but i like the chances.
I've teased VIRGINIA TECH(-.5)over wake forest, over 134. I did this at the last minute without really analyzing these teams' totals, but these ACC teams tend to push each other to some pretty high scores in close games, and I think this one will be pretty close. The fact that this line opened at 5, and moved to 5.5 has me a little concerned. You'd think Wake would be one of those public teams that would get some action as a dog. I think Vegas thought that too, even if they were wrong about public sentiment.
Right now all my teams are losing, except MSU, who are tied, 12-12, 13:31 left in the first half. I'll check in later to bet some more.
Bodog refuses to post a o/u for UNC-GT, so I've taken
GEORGIA TECH(-6)over north carolina. If they ever post a total I may tease Tech and the over. I'm still considering kentucky(-3.5)over MISSISSIPPI STATE, or vice versa. You don't get rich betting on the top teams. Following this logic (sort of) I won last night with
TEXAS A&M(+7)over kansas, as Kansas won by 5, but failed to cover, 59-54. I feel alot safer getting 7 than getting 3 though. And Kentucky just beat Tennessee 73-62...as I recall, the line was 9.
I've parlayed MISSISSIPPI STATE(+4), under 144. My reasoning is that Mississippi State needs their big men on defense to slow Kentucky down to stay in this game, so relative success on their part will tend to mean a lower scoring game. If you check Kentucky's totals you'll see what I mean....In fact, I may just hedge, and take the Wildcats too.
I've taken kentucky(+3)over MISSISSIPPI STATE. I will win more if my State parlay comes through, since that pays like 2.58/1, but this way I break even otherwise...unless MSU covers in a high scoring game.
South Florida is closing out a win and cover, barring some freak run by the Bearcats. USF leads, 59-45, 1:10 to go.
Va Tech has come back to take the lead vs. Wake, and is actually covering at the moment,
80-74. 2:28 to go though, so plenty of time in that one.
I thought State would have to hold IU's points down to cover the spread, and that is what they did, beating Indiana 72-58. 130 was reasonably safely under the 139 o/u. This parlay paid off at 2.73/1.
USF won and covered, 65-57. Cincy continued their losing ways on the road, as I expected.
Virginia Tech leads, 86-83, :17 to go. Not good enough. Pity I didn't tease either one of these teams and the over...or just bet the over, for that matter.
Tech won, 87-83. Way to tease me by getting closer to the line. Can't win them all.
Or can I? Wake getting up early led me to forget that I did tease the over! Tech only needed to win by one to cover...and the teams needed to score more than 134. 170 ought to do the trick.
Georgia Tech leads North Carolina, 14-9. Bodog never did post an o/u. Mississippi State is up 12-10 at the moment. Hopefully my night bets do well enough to not completely undo my hard work earlier.
I've been big on fading Michigan State this year, and I sorta like Indiana to cover against the underachieving Spartans...in fact, if it wasn't too late, I might bet INDIANA(+11.5)over state...having perused these teams' previous scores, I like michigan state(-11.5), under 139 in a parlay. Basically I think State will either undrachieve and win by 6 or 7, or they'll blow the Hoosiers out. In a blowout I think Indiana doesn't score enough points for the over. I'd consider parlaying it the other way (Indiana and the over), but I don't think a close game is any guarantee of a high score. I don't think a blowout is a guarantee of an under either, but i like the chances.
I've teased VIRGINIA TECH(-.5)over wake forest, over 134. I did this at the last minute without really analyzing these teams' totals, but these ACC teams tend to push each other to some pretty high scores in close games, and I think this one will be pretty close. The fact that this line opened at 5, and moved to 5.5 has me a little concerned. You'd think Wake would be one of those public teams that would get some action as a dog. I think Vegas thought that too, even if they were wrong about public sentiment.
Right now all my teams are losing, except MSU, who are tied, 12-12, 13:31 left in the first half. I'll check in later to bet some more.
Bodog refuses to post a o/u for UNC-GT, so I've taken
GEORGIA TECH(-6)over north carolina. If they ever post a total I may tease Tech and the over. I'm still considering kentucky(-3.5)over MISSISSIPPI STATE, or vice versa. You don't get rich betting on the top teams. Following this logic (sort of) I won last night with
TEXAS A&M(+7)over kansas, as Kansas won by 5, but failed to cover, 59-54. I feel alot safer getting 7 than getting 3 though. And Kentucky just beat Tennessee 73-62...as I recall, the line was 9.
I've parlayed MISSISSIPPI STATE(+4), under 144. My reasoning is that Mississippi State needs their big men on defense to slow Kentucky down to stay in this game, so relative success on their part will tend to mean a lower scoring game. If you check Kentucky's totals you'll see what I mean....In fact, I may just hedge, and take the Wildcats too.
I've taken kentucky(+3)over MISSISSIPPI STATE. I will win more if my State parlay comes through, since that pays like 2.58/1, but this way I break even otherwise...unless MSU covers in a high scoring game.
South Florida is closing out a win and cover, barring some freak run by the Bearcats. USF leads, 59-45, 1:10 to go.
Va Tech has come back to take the lead vs. Wake, and is actually covering at the moment,
80-74. 2:28 to go though, so plenty of time in that one.
I thought State would have to hold IU's points down to cover the spread, and that is what they did, beating Indiana 72-58. 130 was reasonably safely under the 139 o/u. This parlay paid off at 2.73/1.
USF won and covered, 65-57. Cincy continued their losing ways on the road, as I expected.
Virginia Tech leads, 86-83, :17 to go. Not good enough. Pity I didn't tease either one of these teams and the over...or just bet the over, for that matter.
Tech won, 87-83. Way to tease me by getting closer to the line. Can't win them all.
Or can I? Wake getting up early led me to forget that I did tease the over! Tech only needed to win by one to cover...and the teams needed to score more than 134. 170 ought to do the trick.
Georgia Tech leads North Carolina, 14-9. Bodog never did post an o/u. Mississippi State is up 12-10 at the moment. Hopefully my night bets do well enough to not completely undo my hard work earlier.
posted by roQQ | 4:01 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home