State doesn't cover much--Can they score?

Ugh. I've lost on WEST VIRGINIA(-4.5)over villanova and WISCONSIN(-9)over illinois in the last two days. I've just taken OVER 139 on MICHIGAN STATE(-3)purdue. Teasing Illinois and the under in order to give myself a cushion where State could lose but fail to cover on the weekend proved an ill-advised bet where my Spartan alum emotions get involved. Both of these teams have difficulties covering of late, and I'm unlikely to bet State without teasing myself 4 or 5 points...taking the over here is probably reactionary backwash from the State-Illinois tilt, but what the heck. While 6 of 10 of these teams last games have gone under, the more competitive games against better opponents seem to total higher.

At least that's what I've told myself for the last 30 min or so leading up to the game, which is knotted at 13 all, 13:16 to go in the first half...the under looks pretty good right now, though football games tend to start out slow, and I think the same is true for hoops.

Considering Tom Izzo's ability to gameplan for an opponent, and State's ability to totally take an opponent out of their game, it may behoove me to avoid totals bets on the Spartans...unless I decide that I can get into Izzo's head.

20-17, 10:21 to go in the 1st half. The over looks better now.