Homerism hedged

I've taken the OVER(116) for Air Force at San Diego State. A review of their recent totals leaves me wondering how this o/u can be this low. On the other hand, Air Force is an 18 point dog, and blowouts do seem to be less likely to go over...at least in football. The nearest thing handy may indicate this...or not. See for yourself.

I've also taken michigan state(+6), under 131. Since this is a homer pick, and since State has been horrible vs. the spread, I've also teased it the other way, with
WISCONSIN(+2), under 131. Since State games have been mostly higher than the total, and Wisconsin games have gone under, it may have made more sense to tease State(+6)over 123, but since the total opened at 124 that didn't seem like much of a deal.

Anyway, I feel like I ought to work more on totals, since I seem to be better at finding ones that don't add up.

If Air Force is an 18 point dog, would it be fair to say that they wildly blow...yonder?