Hoops, teased or not
Sports Objective hasn't posted any hoops picks yet today, though he's posted something regarding baseball betting. I'm not convinced this will make me care enough to bet on baseball this year, but we'll see.
Meanwhile, I've made a couple of bets while I'm waiting.
I'm trying a double tease on the Texas at Oklahoma State game. I'm teasing
OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)under 156, and OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)over 148. Both of these have no vig, so if I get one I break even. Of course, Texas can rain on my parade by winning by seven or more. Fading Texas after they've lost 3 of 4 doesn't seem half as sexy as backing KState against the unbeaten 'Horns a couple of weeks ago, probably because it's not.
I've also taken uconn(+11)over 139.5, against LOUISVILLE. The unteased 144 seems to be a compromise between Louisville's high scoring games, and Connecticut's lower scoring games. The tease gets the over down around the upper end of UConn's recent totals. I'm not sure how safe I would have felt with the teased under, as Louisville seems to routinely total over 148.
Speaking of safe, Louisville has jumped out to a 17-10 lead, so the only thing keeping UConn within the line is my tease, at least for now.
Ugh. 25-14, 12:00 to go in the first half. I should have just bet the over. This could get ugly. UConn doesn't seem too impressive on the road. Of course, they lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but beat Texas at home, so I already knew that.
Texas is favored by 3 now. Should I fade them again? I've got an hour and a half to decide.
Meanwhile, in the last couple of days I've bet a couple of other games. The first was
georgia(+7)over SOUTH CAROLINA. Georgia led most of the game, ultimately losing,
78-77. Good enough for me.
The other was ARIZONA(+6.5), under 154.5 hosting california. Arizona won outright,
76-72. Sports Objective took ARIZONA(+2), which was also good enough. I probably would have teased the Georgia total as well, if it had been available, but bodog likes to withhold some of these. I don't recall wich way I wanted to tease it, or what the over/under was, for that matter. Alot of these totals are accurate enough that you can tease them either way and win.
Louisville leads 48-34 at the half. Ugh.
Indy opened as a 4.5 point favorite in Super Bowl XLIV. After about a half hour the line moved to 5, and eventually it settled at 5.5. That's not enough for bodog, however. Their line is 6. At covers.com, Pinnacle still has the line at 4.5. Five books have the line at 5, eleven have it at 5.5, and four are up to 6. At 5dimes you can get Indy by 11 at +200, if you're feeling particularly confident about the Colts. So far I've taken NewOrleans(+6)over Indianapolis. If the line moves any higher I'll probably take the Saints again.
Speaking of which, it's 9:00, and I just teased OKLAHOMA STATE(+7.5), under 156.5. Since the total moved from 151.5 to 152, it seems to make more sense to tease the under even higher, rather than tease the over down. I probably didn't have time to do another double tease anyway.
Louisville won, 82-69. Oh well. I shoulda took the over.
I just checked the live betting on Okla St vs Texas. Pure degeneracy. I'll settle for losing 2 or 3 bets on this game, thank you very much. Speaking of which, Texas is up 10-8, 11:30 to go in the first half, so it looks alot better for me in this one...so far.
Okla St is up 19-14, 7:25 to go in the first half.
Last week I got INDIANAPOLIS(-8)over nyjets right, but flamed out on
NEW ORLEANS(-4)over minnesota, as the Saints squeaked out a 31-28 victory in OT. Worse than that, I held off on making a pick for as long as possible, but predicted on the air and in a podcast that the game would not be close. I recommended you take either minnesota(+160) or NEWORLEANS(-4), as the point spread would not come into play. So even when I refrain from making a pick, I'm completely wrong. We'll see if I do any better on the Super Bowl. 1-1 is the best I've managed on any week of the playoffs.
Oklahoma State is up 36-32 at halftime. 68 points looks pretty good for the under, so far. For my teased over, the two teams will need to score 80 in the 2nd half. As long as they can keep from scoring 88 more my teased under is good. We'll see if the Cowboys can keep from blowing their lead.
Speaking of blowing their lead, OSU lost, 72-60. The under covered easily, but 7.5 wasn't enough.
Just checked Sports Objective. He took OKLAHOMA STATE(+3). If it's any consolation, I'm reading the lines the same as he is, at least in this case. He has shown me the way to pick my own losses. Maybe I should go after totals. I seem to be shit hot there.
Meanwhile, I've made a couple of bets while I'm waiting.
I'm trying a double tease on the Texas at Oklahoma State game. I'm teasing
OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)under 156, and OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)over 148. Both of these have no vig, so if I get one I break even. Of course, Texas can rain on my parade by winning by seven or more. Fading Texas after they've lost 3 of 4 doesn't seem half as sexy as backing KState against the unbeaten 'Horns a couple of weeks ago, probably because it's not.
I've also taken uconn(+11)over 139.5, against LOUISVILLE. The unteased 144 seems to be a compromise between Louisville's high scoring games, and Connecticut's lower scoring games. The tease gets the over down around the upper end of UConn's recent totals. I'm not sure how safe I would have felt with the teased under, as Louisville seems to routinely total over 148.
Speaking of safe, Louisville has jumped out to a 17-10 lead, so the only thing keeping UConn within the line is my tease, at least for now.
Ugh. 25-14, 12:00 to go in the first half. I should have just bet the over. This could get ugly. UConn doesn't seem too impressive on the road. Of course, they lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but beat Texas at home, so I already knew that.
Texas is favored by 3 now. Should I fade them again? I've got an hour and a half to decide.
Meanwhile, in the last couple of days I've bet a couple of other games. The first was
georgia(+7)over SOUTH CAROLINA. Georgia led most of the game, ultimately losing,
78-77. Good enough for me.
The other was ARIZONA(+6.5), under 154.5 hosting california. Arizona won outright,
76-72. Sports Objective took ARIZONA(+2), which was also good enough. I probably would have teased the Georgia total as well, if it had been available, but bodog likes to withhold some of these. I don't recall wich way I wanted to tease it, or what the over/under was, for that matter. Alot of these totals are accurate enough that you can tease them either way and win.
Louisville leads 48-34 at the half. Ugh.
Indy opened as a 4.5 point favorite in Super Bowl XLIV. After about a half hour the line moved to 5, and eventually it settled at 5.5. That's not enough for bodog, however. Their line is 6. At covers.com, Pinnacle still has the line at 4.5. Five books have the line at 5, eleven have it at 5.5, and four are up to 6. At 5dimes you can get Indy by 11 at +200, if you're feeling particularly confident about the Colts. So far I've taken NewOrleans(+6)over Indianapolis. If the line moves any higher I'll probably take the Saints again.
Speaking of which, it's 9:00, and I just teased OKLAHOMA STATE(+7.5), under 156.5. Since the total moved from 151.5 to 152, it seems to make more sense to tease the under even higher, rather than tease the over down. I probably didn't have time to do another double tease anyway.
Louisville won, 82-69. Oh well. I shoulda took the over.
I just checked the live betting on Okla St vs Texas. Pure degeneracy. I'll settle for losing 2 or 3 bets on this game, thank you very much. Speaking of which, Texas is up 10-8, 11:30 to go in the first half, so it looks alot better for me in this one...so far.
Okla St is up 19-14, 7:25 to go in the first half.
Last week I got INDIANAPOLIS(-8)over nyjets right, but flamed out on
NEW ORLEANS(-4)over minnesota, as the Saints squeaked out a 31-28 victory in OT. Worse than that, I held off on making a pick for as long as possible, but predicted on the air and in a podcast that the game would not be close. I recommended you take either minnesota(+160) or NEWORLEANS(-4), as the point spread would not come into play. So even when I refrain from making a pick, I'm completely wrong. We'll see if I do any better on the Super Bowl. 1-1 is the best I've managed on any week of the playoffs.
Oklahoma State is up 36-32 at halftime. 68 points looks pretty good for the under, so far. For my teased over, the two teams will need to score 80 in the 2nd half. As long as they can keep from scoring 88 more my teased under is good. We'll see if the Cowboys can keep from blowing their lead.
Speaking of blowing their lead, OSU lost, 72-60. The under covered easily, but 7.5 wasn't enough.
Just checked Sports Objective. He took OKLAHOMA STATE(+3). If it's any consolation, I'm reading the lines the same as he is, at least in this case. He has shown me the way to pick my own losses. Maybe I should go after totals. I seem to be shit hot there.
posted by roQQ | 3:54 PM
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