Late Afternoon Degeneracy
After pondering the wisdom of messing with nebraska(+21)at KANSAS, I've taken the
OVER 133. Kansas can get 80 on their own. Not so sure the 'Huskers will keep up their end. Meanwhile, in what may prove to be a scheduling miscalculation for my afternoon gambling fix, I've parlayed south carolina(+9)over TENNESSEE, OLE MISS(-7)over alabama, KANSAS(-21)over nebraska, and CORNELL(-24.5)over brown. Why a miscalculation? Because the first 3 games all started at 6:00 EST, while Cornell doesn't start until 7:30. Since I don't do alot of parlays, I forgot that it is customary to parlay games that are going on simoultaneously, since this is more entertaining. Chances are I will have lost by the time the Cornell game starts anyway...this is the way to get my odds up into the 12:1 range.
Why these impulsive wagers, you ask? Well, I've gone 4-1 so far today, and since this included a parlay that paid at 2.5/1, I effectively went 5.5/1 today...so far. Earlier I recounted my wagers in the order in which I made them, but now I'll go back through them in the order of the games.
GEORGETOWN(+3)over villanova, over 145--Georgetown raced to a 20 point lead on their way to a 103-90 win over #2 'Nova. The total was never really in doubt either, as the teams compiled a whopping 193 points.
RICHMOND(-1)over temple, over 114--I liked these numbers enough to go for a parlay instead of a tease. The Spiders made me look like a genius, and the total of 125 was enough.
wisconsin(pick)over MICHIGAN--the Badgers recent domination of Michigan State was fresh enough in my mind to make me confident of this outcome--Wisconsin easily, 62-44.
UNLV(-1)over byu--a spiritual victory as well as a monetary one, as the gamblers handled the 10th ranked Mormons, 88-74.
MEMPHIS(-0.5)over gonzaga, over 140--my only blemish, so far. 'Zags won, and the under came in 66-58, for a total of only 124.
My pick of Kansas-Nebraska over 133 may need some help. With 14:00 to go, Nebraska is up, 44-43. 47 points more and the over comes in. 2/3 of the way through, I've got a shot, which is more than I can say about my ill-advised parlay. Right now South Carolina trails 47-24, Kansas is 20 points from covering (they're up 45-44 now), Ole Miss trails 52-39, and even Cornell trails, 20-16. The nice part is I risked very little of my $$ on this bet, and of course, winning 3 out of 4 would hurt alot more than blowing the whole thing.
I'm probably not taking ILLINOIS(+2)over michigan state, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't. Accuscore has MSU winning 52% of their simulations. They also have Kalin Lucas scoring about 11.5 points on average. Have they factored in that he might not play, or may be ineffective if he does? Computer simulations are only as good as the information you feed the computer. Garbage in, garbage out. The Spartans have failed horribly vs. the spread lately (1-5 ATS in their last 6) even before they started getting injured.
This might be a good time to turn my attention to Super Bowl props. So far I've only taken "Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more?" No--(-210) My intel says that this only happens about 1/4 of the time.
I've taken New Orleans(+6)over Indianapolis. The line dipped to 5 on bodog yesterday, possibly due to Dwight Freeny's bum ankle, but is now working its way back up.
Nebraska and Kansas are inching their way towards the over 56-46. Unfortunately, the clock isn't inching enough for my taste--7:47 to go.
I've teased ILLINOIS(+7)over michigan state, under 143. The total seems completely reasonable, but I've teased the line and the under 5 points each to lessen my guilt over betting against MSU. I suspect the Spartans will lose outright, but this way I don't have to root for it. As long as Lucas is out, or at least slowed down, it seems to make more sense to lean under than over. I know nothing about MSU's backup.
They've just announced Kalin Lucas won't play tonight. Do I feel vindicated? Maybe in another 40 minutes of game time.
1:22 to go in Kansas-Nebraska, and the Jayhawks lead, 71-61, for 132 total. I'm a basket away from covering the over....
Just enough of a lead for Kansas to not bother scoring. On the other hand, Nebraska will have to foul to have a chance, so I see a couple of free throws in my future.
Apparently one of them happened--72-61. Still 1:22 to go.
It's over, and the over is in--75-64. 139 is more than 133--I swear.
12:00 to go and Illinois leads, 53-52. These teans need to stop scoring so the under can come in. Other than that, this is perfect for my bet.
State just drained another 3. 55-53. Go Green, but fuck! Slow the fuck down already. These teams were content to trade missed shots and rebounds at the end of the first half. Hopefully that will happen again.
Something tells me State will end up winning by one, though I think Illinois is playing a little better overall. I'm trying to think of another team who has been so bad vs. the spread, but has continued to win...with relatively tight spreads, that is. Otherwise I might say the Pats down the streach in '07. State has been crap against the line all year, though.
8:42 to go and the Illini are up 59-57.
64-57--7:17 to go. Illinois should really think about stalling now. They can stop dunking to end fast breaks any time as well.
3:55, State trails, 66-63. Can the Spartans pull this out without the two teams scoring another 12 points? If I'd teased the over I'd only need 5 more points right now. Money in the bank.
State lost, the under lost, I lost, 78-75.
Hmm. I was about to bet the over for Kim Kardashian sightings and mentions of Hurricane Katrina, but it looks like they are resetting the odds right now on all the props other than the coin toss. Apparently the coin toss action isn't one-sided enough to warrant resetting the lines. Get on it, people. I might have to preview some more college hoops. For Super Bowl Sunday. Feels sacreligious....Nothing posted yet. Hmm.
OVER 133. Kansas can get 80 on their own. Not so sure the 'Huskers will keep up their end. Meanwhile, in what may prove to be a scheduling miscalculation for my afternoon gambling fix, I've parlayed south carolina(+9)over TENNESSEE, OLE MISS(-7)over alabama, KANSAS(-21)over nebraska, and CORNELL(-24.5)over brown. Why a miscalculation? Because the first 3 games all started at 6:00 EST, while Cornell doesn't start until 7:30. Since I don't do alot of parlays, I forgot that it is customary to parlay games that are going on simoultaneously, since this is more entertaining. Chances are I will have lost by the time the Cornell game starts anyway...this is the way to get my odds up into the 12:1 range.
Why these impulsive wagers, you ask? Well, I've gone 4-1 so far today, and since this included a parlay that paid at 2.5/1, I effectively went 5.5/1 today...so far. Earlier I recounted my wagers in the order in which I made them, but now I'll go back through them in the order of the games.
GEORGETOWN(+3)over villanova, over 145--Georgetown raced to a 20 point lead on their way to a 103-90 win over #2 'Nova. The total was never really in doubt either, as the teams compiled a whopping 193 points.
RICHMOND(-1)over temple, over 114--I liked these numbers enough to go for a parlay instead of a tease. The Spiders made me look like a genius, and the total of 125 was enough.
wisconsin(pick)over MICHIGAN--the Badgers recent domination of Michigan State was fresh enough in my mind to make me confident of this outcome--Wisconsin easily, 62-44.
UNLV(-1)over byu--a spiritual victory as well as a monetary one, as the gamblers handled the 10th ranked Mormons, 88-74.
MEMPHIS(-0.5)over gonzaga, over 140--my only blemish, so far. 'Zags won, and the under came in 66-58, for a total of only 124.
My pick of Kansas-Nebraska over 133 may need some help. With 14:00 to go, Nebraska is up, 44-43. 47 points more and the over comes in. 2/3 of the way through, I've got a shot, which is more than I can say about my ill-advised parlay. Right now South Carolina trails 47-24, Kansas is 20 points from covering (they're up 45-44 now), Ole Miss trails 52-39, and even Cornell trails, 20-16. The nice part is I risked very little of my $$ on this bet, and of course, winning 3 out of 4 would hurt alot more than blowing the whole thing.
I'm probably not taking ILLINOIS(+2)over michigan state, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't. Accuscore has MSU winning 52% of their simulations. They also have Kalin Lucas scoring about 11.5 points on average. Have they factored in that he might not play, or may be ineffective if he does? Computer simulations are only as good as the information you feed the computer. Garbage in, garbage out. The Spartans have failed horribly vs. the spread lately (1-5 ATS in their last 6) even before they started getting injured.
This might be a good time to turn my attention to Super Bowl props. So far I've only taken "Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more?" No--(-210) My intel says that this only happens about 1/4 of the time.
I've taken New Orleans(+6)over Indianapolis. The line dipped to 5 on bodog yesterday, possibly due to Dwight Freeny's bum ankle, but is now working its way back up.
Nebraska and Kansas are inching their way towards the over 56-46. Unfortunately, the clock isn't inching enough for my taste--7:47 to go.
I've teased ILLINOIS(+7)over michigan state, under 143. The total seems completely reasonable, but I've teased the line and the under 5 points each to lessen my guilt over betting against MSU. I suspect the Spartans will lose outright, but this way I don't have to root for it. As long as Lucas is out, or at least slowed down, it seems to make more sense to lean under than over. I know nothing about MSU's backup.
They've just announced Kalin Lucas won't play tonight. Do I feel vindicated? Maybe in another 40 minutes of game time.
1:22 to go in Kansas-Nebraska, and the Jayhawks lead, 71-61, for 132 total. I'm a basket away from covering the over....
Just enough of a lead for Kansas to not bother scoring. On the other hand, Nebraska will have to foul to have a chance, so I see a couple of free throws in my future.
Apparently one of them happened--72-61. Still 1:22 to go.
It's over, and the over is in--75-64. 139 is more than 133--I swear.
12:00 to go and Illinois leads, 53-52. These teans need to stop scoring so the under can come in. Other than that, this is perfect for my bet.
State just drained another 3. 55-53. Go Green, but fuck! Slow the fuck down already. These teams were content to trade missed shots and rebounds at the end of the first half. Hopefully that will happen again.
Something tells me State will end up winning by one, though I think Illinois is playing a little better overall. I'm trying to think of another team who has been so bad vs. the spread, but has continued to win...with relatively tight spreads, that is. Otherwise I might say the Pats down the streach in '07. State has been crap against the line all year, though.
8:42 to go and the Illini are up 59-57.
64-57--7:17 to go. Illinois should really think about stalling now. They can stop dunking to end fast breaks any time as well.
3:55, State trails, 66-63. Can the Spartans pull this out without the two teams scoring another 12 points? If I'd teased the over I'd only need 5 more points right now. Money in the bank.
State lost, the under lost, I lost, 78-75.
Hmm. I was about to bet the over for Kim Kardashian sightings and mentions of Hurricane Katrina, but it looks like they are resetting the odds right now on all the props other than the coin toss. Apparently the coin toss action isn't one-sided enough to warrant resetting the lines. Get on it, people. I might have to preview some more college hoops. For Super Bowl Sunday. Feels sacreligious....Nothing posted yet. Hmm.
posted by roQQ | 3:04 PM
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