roQQ boTTom sports

Has our hero hit rock bottom? He is hoping that his online sportsbook/poker accounts have hit bottom, but you can always go lower....They say that you have to hit rock bottom before you get help for an addiction, but if the addiction is profitable...

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Saturday, February 27, 2010

roQQboTTom teases Rocky Top...etc

Wow. That title sounds extremely gay.

I've teased TENNESSEE(+3)over kentucky up to TENNESSEE(+8),under 148. This was a last minute bet, after which I checked Accuscore. Their average simulation was Kentucky, 75-70. Maybe it would have made more sense to tease the over. According to them, it would have made more sense to tease Kentucky and the over...

I find that when good teams play each other there tends to be more defensive intensity...or whatever else explains less scoring. Kentucky's 58-56 win at Vanderbilt is a good recent example of this. On the other hand, Tennessee's 90-71 loss to Vandy on Feb 9th may be evidence to the contrary.

I've also taken TEXAS A&M(-1)over texas. Gig Em. This opened as a pick, and has moved to A&M by 1.5. I paid the -120 to get it down to 1. Without crunching any numbers or checking any results, I find that it's worth paying the half-point when betting tight spreads like this.

Tennesseeis up, 20-9 . It was 18-4 a minute ago. Right now I hope Tennessee tries to slow the game down. At the moment I think I'd feel better with Tennessee(+3) than with 8 and the teased under.

I've posted my A&M bet on covers.com's facebook page. So far I'm 3-0 on picks I've posted there, so mentioning this ought to jinx it. Click on that link, go to their page, and you can click on that link, and come back here. Love that internet.

The Aggs are favored by 2 now on bodog. Glad I didn't wait too long. I wonder if the books thought Texas would be getting action in this game.

SOB has taken Texas(+2). All this number crunching must be going to his head. Two weeks ago I think he would have taken the Aggies all day. He has also taken
baylor(-4.5)over OKLAHOMA. The Sooners haven't impressed anybody lately with their losing streak. Not in a good way, at least. The line has moved. So be it. baylor(-5) He also likes ALABAMA(-1.5)over ole miss. Unlike UT-TAMU, this pick seems to fit his system, so I'll do it too. 'BAMA(-1.5)...Make that 'BAMA(-1), (-120). Again, I'll pay the vig in this spot.

Georgia opened as a point favorite hosting Florida, but is now a point & a half dog. Bodog has moved them all the way to +2, a 3 point move. Maybe Florida beating Tennessee impressed bettors. For that matter, maybe Tennessee 74 Kentucky 65 is behind this move, making Florida's win even more impressive. Tennessee covered with or without my tease, as they won outright, but teasing the under didn't hurt me any, as the teased under (147) was 8 over the final score.

Accuscore predicts Florida by two as well. I'm tempted to take Georgia, but I've decided not to. If bodog would post a total so I could tease this I probably would do it.

I just tried to tease Kanas and Georgia, but both games have started. I don't like to tease or parlay results that are unrelated to one another, so this is probably just as well.

Baylor won and covered, 70-63, but 'Bama lost outright, 76-73. So far I'm 3-1 today. The Aggies beat Texas, 74-58.

I went 2-0 Thursday night, as Northwestern trounced Iowa, 74-57, making my tease of NW and the over unnecessary, and Wisconsin handled Indiana, 78-46. I thought I had a push on this one, since I'd parlayed Wisconsin and the under, and the 124 total matched the over/under. Apparently a push is good enough on a parlay.

Right now Georgia is making me wish I'd taken them and the two points, as they lead Florida, 45-30 at the half. On the other hand, Illinois, who I'd also considered as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Minnesota, trails 24-14 at the break. The only thing that looks better than the Gophers right now is the under (133).

Apparently a Beer truck knocked over a fire hydrant, and the resulting mess has delayed the start of Maryland at Virginia Tech, so far from 4:00 to 6:30. It sounds like they are going to limit the number of fans at the game because some of the bathrooms will be out of commission. Will this dampen VaTech's considerable home-court advantage (18-0 at home), or will the delay make things that much harder on the road team? Accuscore likes Maryland to win outright, though Tech opened as a point favorite, and the line has moved to Tech by 1.5. I think I'll pay it. The Pomeroy Ratings have Maryland 21 higher than VaTech, but they also had Texas 20 spots better than A&M, and we saw how that turned out. VA TECH(1.5)over maryland. Make that VATECH(-1). Again, I'll pay (-120) for the half-point.

I'm not crazy about betting the moneyline, but Syracuse(-210) over Villanova looks pretty good when you consider that Accuscore likes 'Cuse to win 73% of the time. On the other hand, they also think 'Cuse will cover the 4.5 point spread 63.5% of the time. Too bad bodog has 'Nova as a 5 point dog. Don't tease this one with the over or the under--Accuscore has these as being almost exactly evenly split. Contrast this with the Virginia Tech game, where Accuscore likes the under to hit 57.6% of the time. Too bad the cowards at bodog haven't posted a total for that game. Speaking of which, that game is now delayed until 7:00. Hopefully this is so the Hokies rabid fans can all pack themselves into Cassell Coliseum.

The Pomeroy ratings have unranked Missouri only 2 below Kansas State, which may explain why Accuscore has KState winning by an average of 2, even though they are favored by 6.5. The Cougars also may be looking forward to playing #1 Kansas on Wednesday, though by that time they may not be #1 anymore, as they are losing to Oklahoma State right now. No, they've lost, 85-77.

I'm taking missouri(+7)over KANSAS STATE...paying the vig again. I don't like taking road teams (though I've stated my reasons) so I'll take all the points I can get. I'm still considering a moneyline play, of Missouri(+220). Accuscore thinks they win this 47% of the time. I'll also take
SYRACUSE(-5)over villanova.

Virginia Tech is favored by 2 now. I wonder if the beer truck is influencing this one. Georgia ended up beating Florida, 78-76. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

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