Who Dat???

I already mentioned that I took NEW ORLEANS(-3)over new england. Well, today bodog.com finally let the line move, and now I also have
NEW ORLEANS(-2)over new england. If I'd bet a little sooner I could have had the Saints at (-1.5), but the line moved back to 2 while I was thinking about it. Right now the Saints lead 10-7, which would win one bet, and push the other. What has me concered, though, is that New England has done an excellent job of running the ball tonight, and already have converted at least two 4th downs by running up the middle. My reasoning for favoring the Saints was that they had a more effective running game, and therefore would be able to run out the clock when they had a lead, while the Patriots would be unable to do the same, and would have a hard time keeping a lead. New England running effectively punctures my theory.

On the other hand, Drew Brees just completed a 75 yard TD pass to Devery Henderson, putting the Saints up 17-7. If New England is down their ability to run becomes irrelevant. The Henderson score was especially thrilling for me, as it didn't go to Marques Colston, who is starting for my fantasy opponent. Not only does it help my chances of winning my bets, it doesn't hurt my fantasy prospects. Really, it helps, because it gets the ball to Tom Brady, who eventually will score me some points. So far Saints safety Roman Harper has outscored Brady for me. Not sure how I feel about this.

Drew Brees just completed a 38 yard pass to Robert Meacham for another TD. Again, I'm thrilled the pass wasn't to Marques Colston.

I was asleep last night when the Ravens beat the Steelers 20-17 in OT, winning me both ends of my double tease, as the total ended between the teased over and the teased under. After going 1-2 on college this weekend, right now I could be 4-1-1 on the pros, if you count both my Ravens bets, and both these chickens that haven't hatched.

Those chickens have hatched, but so did Colston, for 122 yards and a TD on four catches. I lost two points overall on the night for my fantasy team, as the Saints roared to a 38-17 win.

Tennessee Push, Baltimore Tease

I'm not sure how they decide whether or not to kick the extra point when a team scores a winning touchdown on the last play in the game. I think they kick it as long as it isn't overtime. Sudden death isn't sudden death if it is followed by a PAT.

Anyway, I was sweating this question when Vince Young threw a game winning pass to put the Titans up on the Cardnails, 19-17. Since I had Tennessee(-3) I was extremely interested as to whether or not the PAT would happen. It did, and I escaped with a push. As exciting as the final drive (and PAT) was, I was probably even more excited that the final drive was executed free of plays involving Chris Johnson. Johnson had already exploded for 29 fantasy points for my opponent, and I trailed him by about 20 points at that point, so I really needed Johnson to stop producing, and he obliged.

I've gone ahead and double teased Baltimore and the UNDER, and Baltimore and the OVER.
This works out to BALTIMORE(-1.5)over pittsburgh,OVER 28.5, and
BALTIMORE(-2)over pittsburgh, UNDER 41. I paid the extra vig for another half-point on the over tease. Maybe I should have done that on both.

Baltimore is up 7-0, and Pittsburgh just punted for the second time. I now have Willis McGahee as Ray Rices' handcuff, but since he is on my bench, I'm not exactly thrilled that he has vultured an early TD. Baltimore shows every sign of getting Rice the ball on about half of their offensive plays, however, so I suspect he will do enough to give me the fantasy lead going into Monday night, knock on wood. Right now I trail by 12

Injuries Influence Lines

My bet of the Carolina moneyline was pretty much stillborn, as the game started off with a
pick-6 form the Jets' Darrelle Revis. Jake Delhomme finally delivered the performance we'd been waiting for, 14-34 for 130 yards, with 4 interceptions. This works out to a whopping two fantasy points, or 1/4 of Eli Mannings' output this week.

I have TENNESSEE(-3)over arizona. This is one of those games that is a bit uncomfortable to bet, since I have Kurt Warner and I am playing against the team with Chris Johnson this week. On the other hand, I've benched Warner, and he isn't going to play, due to head trauma suffered last week. If I'd bet this before the Cardnails announced they would start Matt Leinert I could have got this game receiving a vig. As it is, I'm happy the line didin't move on me.

Bodog finally released the Ravens-Steelers line, a bit late, given that it's been common knowledge Roethlisberger isn't playing for a couple of days. The line is
BALTIMORE(-8.5)pittsburgh. That's enough that I'm staying away, given the recent lethargy from the Raven offense. Or is it? This game isn't until tonight, so I can still change my mind. Speaking of which, the line has dropped to 8.

I'm planning to take NEW ORLEANS(-3)over new england, though I haven't yet. Bodog refuses to move the line off 3, but the Saints are (+120) at (-3). I halfway think I should bet this, then bet again if the line drops. I like the Saints at home, and I like their running game, especially compared to the Pats' lack of a running game. The Saints should be able to run down the clock when they have a lead, whereas the Pats have already shown this is problematic for them.

Pete Carroll takes gloves off

It's the beginning of the 4th quarter, and USC is up on UCLA, 14-0. I'm not exactly thrilled about this, but I'm glad I paid for the extra half-point, since right now I still have a push.

Right now I'm torn between taking carolina(+3)over NEW YORK JETS, and taking
Carolina(+165). While I believe this line should be 1.5 or maybe 2, I don't think this game is decided by 3 or less. Carolina tends to win or lose by 7-11 or so. The Jets tend to just lose, baby, other than a 38-0 victory at Oakland.

Is New York's run defense stout enough to stop DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, thereby placing the game in Jake Delhomme's hands? If I remember right I swore off betting on Delhomme earlier this season, but he's been playing better of late. Knowing my unfortunate record betting Panthers games, this is the game he goes back to sucking ass. Carolina(+165).

Interestingly, while the Jaguars are a 3.5 point dog at San Francisco, the moneyline on them is +150. Normally the larger spread would have a bigger moneyline. According to the vig, money is coming in on the Jets and on the Jags, so I guess this explains the moneyline discrepency.

Good God. UCLA turned the ball over on downs with :50 to go, trailing 21-7 (a push vs the spread), and 'SC just completed a 40 or 50 yard bomb for a spread beating TD. Ouch. About 4 minutes ago UCLA was down only 14-7, and was 7 up on the spread.

Bet on Gold

Florida State disappointed me, failing to get the garbage time score that would have covered the spread. Florida wins, 37-10. I may get it back, less the vig, if
notre dame(+10)over STANFORD holds up. Right now ND leads 14-10 at the start of the 2nd quarter. The Florida State result almost scared me off any more college bets, but the underdog has covered in something like ten out of eleven Notre Dame games, so what the heck. Since I touted this game along with Fla-Fla St on the radio this morning I figure the least I can do is bet it.

My general advise was to take underdogs in these rivalry games, since they tend to be up for them. I considered taking georgia(+9)over GEORGIA TECH. Then I considered
GEORGIA TECH(-9)over georgia. Ultimately I did nothing. Right now Georgia is up, 10-3.

I'm considering following my own advise and taking ucla(+13.5)over USC. 40 minutes to kickoff. Notre Dame is now up 17-14. Georgia just scored to go up 17-3.

Jimmy Clausen just completed about an 80 yard bomb for another score, and Notre Dame is up 24-13. It's enough to make me want to take the Bruins. Incidentally, I would be betting 3 teams with gold helmets. On the other hand, I stayed away from Georgia Tech, who are getting taken apart right now, gold helmets and all. Boston College and their gold helmets beat Maryland, but failed to cover, 19-17.

What the hell. I'll take ucla(+14)over USC. I'm paying extra vig for another half point.

I Feel Dirty

It's Black Friday, and I briefly considered decending into the shopping maddness fray and hoping to get a deal on this electronic gadget my wife wants. The thing is, when you're not up on the latest news, not in the market, so to speak, the chance of getting a deal is roughly equivalent to the chance of getting hosed--if you're lucky. Maybe it's because I'm a cheap fuck, but I think I'd come out of the store feeling dirty afterwards, like I'd just banged a streetwalker, or I was back on the spike...

...like waking up breathing the stale tinge of recycled booze, with the itch of a freshly inked tatoo emerging from an unexpected expanse of flesh...

...like the feeling you get after jerking off to transvestite midget porn--again.

Like the feeling you get after you get wrapped up in the hype of the Alabama-Auburn game and lose your ass on the wrong team.

I'm staying away from AUBURN(+10.5)over alabama...if I can hold out for six more minutes.

On the other hand, I think I'm going to take notre dame(+10)over STANFORD. The Fighting Irish can send Charlie Weis off with some class by beating Stanford and finishing 7-5...or they can at least cover the spread.

The game has started, and Auburn just broke a long run for a score, 7-0.

Auburn just won an onside kick. Right now I wish I'd bet this game, but I don't feel dirty. Could be worse.

Will I feel dirty if I bet Notre Dame? After all, they are the hated rival of both of my schools. Now that Chaz Weis is getting the shaft, I sort of feel bad for him. Furthermore, I'd sort of like to see him succeed where ever he lands, as this would argue for Irish dysfunction, just as Cedric Benson and Kyle Orton indicate some degree of dysfunction on the Chicago Bears.

Mmmmm, Turkey!

Happy Thanksgiving. I mean, Happy Thanksgiving! I've just talked myself out of taking oakland(+14)over DALLAS. Oakland has alot of scrappy losses and upset surprises in their recent past. On the other hand, they also lost to the Giants 44-7, and the Jets 38-0. And Denver 23-3. That's why it's a surprise when they win. Dallas has been playing like shit, but they do tend to have alot of Thanksgiving Day blowouts, so I'll stay away, as much as I'd like to celebarate my Fantasy Team now being 100% Cowbay free, now that I've dumped Jason Witten and Austin Collie for Dallas Clark. Of course, this is probably the game where Witten goes off for 2 TDs and 120 yards, especially since I'm going up against the guy that has Tony Romo.

The Anti-Christ had a head injury too

It's halftime of the Eagles-Bears game, and I'm enjoying the fact that my fantasy football fate is not in the hands of Jay Cutler...or Joe Flacco.

On the other hand, my newly acquired starter, Kurt Warner, left the Cardnails game with a head injury. How long will he be out? I don't know, but he scored 22 in about a half. His injury gave the Rams a chance to catch up, and they ruined my pick, as Arizona won, 21-13, just missing the nine point spread.

The Jets made a similar comeback against the Patriots, but interceptions from Mark Sanchez slammed the door, as the Pats rolled to a 31-14 win. While the Jets snuck to within ten, New England eventually covered the 11 point spread. Given that the Patriots led 21-0 early on, losing this one would have been hard to stomach.

I expected a similar blowout from the Colts, who started as a one point dog, and closed as a 2.5 point favorite. They won 17-15, narrowly covering the 1.5 I gave up when I bet the game Friday morning. I expected this sort of outcome at minimum, but then again, probably everyone else did too. It's hard to sneak up on anybody when you're 9-0...or 10-0.

The Redskins snuck up on the Cowboys, and blew a 6-0 lead to ultimately lose 7-6. Dallas narrowly hung on to their collective scalps, but didn't come close to covering the 11 point spread. I went 3-1 on the pros this week, 4-1 including my LSU cover at Ole Miss.

With Jason Avant the only player remaining for my opponent, he has a 6 touchdown to 3 lead on me. I must have many more yards, because I'm leading, 136-96. His two WR's and TE have a combined five catches for 29 yards and 4 touchdowns! On the other hand, mine have only one score between them, but have about 250 yards, 161 of them from Calvin Johnson.

It's the middle of teh 4th quarter, and the Bears lead 20-17. Jason Avant just caught another pass without getting a touchdown, giving him 3-21 and a TD.

LeSean McCoy just scored, giving the Eagles a 24-20 lead. This is nice because he is not Jason Avant. The Eagles are coveing the (-3), for now. This is nice because I have sworn off betting Eagles games.

I reap what Bill Belichek sows....

Damn. It's less than an hour from gametime, and they've finally posted a Chargers at Denver line. Bodog has San Diego by 7. I've been waiting for the smoke to clear on this one all week, but 7 is too much, not so much because the line opened at 4, as because there are still lines out there as low as 5 and 5.5. The cowards at bodog have posted the worst spread on the board, if you want to take the Chargers.

I stuck to my vow to avoid Eagles games the rest of the year, as the Chargers burned Philly last week. Can you tell that this is still weighing on me?

Meanwhile, those cowards waited 'til somewhere between 11:00 Thursday night and 5:15 Friday morning. By about 5:20 I'd taken indianapolis(-1.5)over BALTIMORE. This line opened the week at Baltimore by one, and immediately moved to Indy by one. Yesterday the line was two, and now it's 2.5 on bodog. Elsewhere it still ranges from Indy by two to a pick. I watched the Ravens struggle to a scoreless first half tie against the mighty Browns last week. If they don't pick it up, they will be down about 21-3 at halftime this week. Am I bitter that Joe Flacco got me only seven fantasy points last week? Probably. According to covers.com, 72.52% of bettors are taking the Colts. I believe the other 27.48% didn't watch the Sunday and Monday night games last week.

Speaking of bitter, not only did Bill Belichek blow that Sunday night game with his genius 4th and 2 call, striking one more blow against my "Pats 4-1 to win the Super Bowl" preseason bet, he let Reggie Wayne get one more TD, effectively putting the 3rd nail in my week 10 Fantasy coffin. Of course, Joe Flacco drove in the final nail Monday night. Enjoy week 11 on my bench, Joe.

Maybe I shouldn't trust Belichek and take NEW ENGLAND(-11)over new york jets this week. But I am. The Pats go into F-U mode, Bill runs up the score, and Rex Ryan does his best not to eye the Krispy Kreame box some rogue reporter places in his field of vision during the post game press conference. I don't know if the fact that I took the Jets and the points in week 2 should convince you to listen to me or not, but I did. I am dialed in on these divisional matchups, by God. Other than the Giants at Eagles a few weeks ago, that is.

Speaking of which, that is why you should take washington(+11)over DALLAS. Too bad I'm reacting to my loss last week, as an Ortonless Bronco team got thumped by the 'Skins, and backup RB Ladell Betts.

Meanwhile, I will enjoy the Eagles at Chicago game tonight, with no $$ on the game, and with Jay Cutler on my Fantasy bench. After some fantasy football drunk dialing, I picked up Kurt Warner off the waiver wire. Without getting into the details, don't count your chickens until you get them off the waiver wire and onto your bench. They amy not be roosters but I like the Cardnails this week. I started off the week with them on my schizo list, but I've replaced them with Philly, the Giants, and some others. arizona(-9)over ST LOUIS. After expecting Warner to get injured all year, my fantasy fate is in the old man's hands. Could be worse. In fact, it has been worse, for the last 10 weeks for the roQQboTTom fEEders, at least. Apparently our trade deadline is next Wednesday, giving me just enough time to try to get Tom Brady after I knock his team out of the playoff race today, knock on wood.

My only college pick this week was lsu(+4)over OLE MISS. The game came out the way I wanted, as I've been pulling for the Rebels all year, and really wanted them to win but not cover. Was this a bigger win than beating Texas Tech in the Sugar Bowl last year? I think it may be, and I think alot of SEC supporters will agree with me, if only because they completely dismiss all non-SEC teams as inferior and irrelevant.

The Colts-Ravens game just started. Hopefully I ahven't overlooked any fantasy subtleties, as this means my entire fantasy lineup has locked, aside from Kurt Warner and Calvin Pace. Unless I deal Pace for another DE, that means it's locked.

Indy just got Pierre Garcon a 70 or 80 yard pass, down to the Ravens 5. Dallas Clark just scored. Ugh. Last week Reggie Wayne killed me, and this week it will be Dallas Clark. Fuck.

Nice Day for an Orange Wedding

My super-duper tease experiment appears to have gone down in flames. Hitting the box appears to be harder than I thought. I think I only lost the vigs on Notre Dame-Pitt, as ND and the under and Pitt and the under both came through. A couple more points and I would have had the overs come in as well. 'Bama and the under was the only tease that came through in the other late game, as Mississippi State didn't manage to score much.

I took denver(-4)over WASHINGTON. Oops. Kyle Orton came out of this game with an injury. Maybe if he didn't the Broncos would have covered, instead of losing 27-17. Maybe not. I took cincinnati(+7)over PITTSBURGH. No offensive touchdowns came in this game, and the Bengals rode a kick return and four field goals to an 18-12 victory. Just when you thought the Steelers might live up to their overratedness, they don't. The Bengals are for real, folks, and now they have the inside track to winning the AFC North.

Need proof that the schedule-makers didn't take Cincy seriously? It's week 10 and they've already played the Steelers twice and the Ravens twice. If they were expected to be competitive they would have played one each of these games during the final 4 or 5 weeks of the season.

My gambling weekend winds up with baltimore(-11)over CLEVELAND. Not only do I need Baltimore to win convincingly, I also need Joe Flacco and Ray Rice to score at least 37 fantasy points...so far. Hopefully Reggie Wayne doesn't torch New England too much more in the 2nd half of the Sunday night game. ESPN projects them to get a combined 51, but their estimates are usually inflated.

I almost did a quad tease on USC(-10)stanford, but did a triple tease instead, omitting stanford and the under. Stanford and the over covered, as the Pine Trees won, 55-21. Obviously I lost on 'SC and the over, and on 'SC and the under.

I've quad teased PITT(-7)notre dame (o/u 58), and 'bama(-12)MISS ST (o/u 43.5). Right now Alabama is up 7-0...make that 14-0--almost halftime. Mississippi State needs to score a littlle bit if this tease is going to make it to my win zone. Either way, I'll probably have to find out about it later, because I'm going to the Tiki Bar to watch Pacquiao-Coto on the big screen. I've been fortunate enough to get an even up bet on Pacquiao, even though he is a -275 favorite.

Playing Catch-Up

Apparently I've been busy, because I haven't caught up on my picks results for a bit now. Lets see if I can catch up right now before I doze off.

Sunday, 1 Nov
DALLAS(-10)over seattle--Dallas won, 38-17.
minnesota(+3.5)over GREEN BAY. Minnesota won, 38-26. Here I took the money line, so that was Minn(+155).
new york giants(+3)over PHILADELPHIA. I blew my 3-0 streak on this matchup. Phily wins, 40-17.
NEW ORLEANS(-11)over atlanta.* New Orleans won, but failed to cover, 35-27. Roddy White and Roman Harper combined to win me my fantasy game, so I really didn't care, though I would have preferred to see Atlanta miss their late FG.
I'm pretty sure I had INDIANAPOLIS(-12.5)over san francisco. This line moved from 11.5 up to about 14. I remember thinking I had gotten a pretty good deal, considering where the line went. San Francsico kept it close, losing 18-14, so either way I lost.

Throw in my loss on Ole Miss, and I went 2-4 on the week, 2-3 on the pros.

*Monday Night

Sunday, 8 Nov
green bay(-10)over TAMPA BAY. After Tampa scored 21 at the end, I checked the score, and thought it was a push, 38-28. And it would be, except the wrong team won.
san diego(+5)over NYGIANTS. If I'd taken the Chargers at +3.5 you could consider this a reaction to last week. Rumor had it that Phillip Rivers has some sort of tell that telegraphs the Chargers' plays to the other team. San Diego also had to travel to the East coast. Still, when I saw the line move up to 5, I jumped on it...then it moved to 5.5 by gametime. The Giants don't deserve to be favored by five against anybody decent right now. Anyway, a last second pass to Vincent Jackson saved San Diego, 21-20. I got completely lucky here.
PHILADELPHIA(-3)over dallas. I may have to stay away from Phily the rest of the year. Dallas wins, 20-16.

I lost my tease of Oregon and Alabama, since the Ducks decided to get blown out by Stanford. On the other hand, I went ahead and did the quad tease I was taking about with 'Bama and LSU, and I won all 4 of those bets. The line had dropped to 7, so the teased lines were 'Bama(-1) and 'Bama(-13). The Over/Under had dropped from 40 to 38, so the teased over was 32, the teased under was 44. The final score of Alabama 24, LSU 15 fell in between the teased spreads and the teased over & under, so I won all four bets. This brings my record up to 6-4 on the weekend. Still, that's two losing weeks in a row on the pros.

Quad tease? Naughty!

Sometime here I need to give my results from last week, but lets get some $$ down on this weeks games first.

Since bodog doesn't like to allow teasing a team and the over/under from the same game until a bit before game time, I'm teasing Alabama and Oregon for 6 points each, giving me

ALABAMA(-1.5)over lsu and oregon(-1.5)over STANFORD. Lots of seven point spreads in college this week if you are in to this sort of thing.

I may try a quad tease on the 'Bama-LSU game, if bodog opens up the teases soon enough before the game for me to get the $$ down. I have shit to do today, and I can't bet from work.

If I do it, that would be 'BAMA(-1.5)and over34, 'BAMA(-1.5)and under46, lsu(+13.5)and over34, and lsu(+13.5)and under 46. This gives me a window from 'Bama 19, LSU 17, to 'Bama 23, LSU 21, to 'Bama 23, LSU 11, to 'Bama 29, LSU 17. What's interesting is how many of these scores are unusual, requiring a missed extra point, a two-point conversion, or a safety to happen, or a bunch of field goals. This may mean I need to do a 7 point tease to cover some more scores, which will of course cost me more vig. The nice thing is most scores outside of this box (graph it--it looks like a box) will win two of the bets, costing only the vig. This sort of tease could be the best way to bet a close struggle, kind of like selling futures options when you don't believe the commodities market will move dramatically. The Steelers-Cardnails Super Bowl would have won all four teases, for instance. I myself won a double tease on that game. Check my archives.

I could do this for Oregon-Stanford, but I think this sort of bet works best in a defensive struggle, since those games are inherently closer. Stanford could keep it close if Oregon has a letdown, but West Coast shootouts are way harder to predict.

Week 8 Recap/ 'Boys (-10)

It's Sunday morning, and I've taken DALLAS(-10)over seattle. Alot of books have 9.5, but it doesn't look like bodog is going to move.

The Giants are now favored by 2 on bodog. Meanwhile, covers.com has the line as one on most sites, and still 1.5 at bodog. Usually their line for bodog is correct, but this makes me wonder how often they update these pages. Most of the other lines are correct, but most of these lines haven't moved, either.

I never posted my results from last week, so I'll do it now. Boston College lost to Notre Dame, but covered the 7.5 point spread. Minnesota lost to Pittsburgh, 27-17, and failed to cover the 6 points that I got, let alone the 4 points it opened at. Pittsburgh's final touchdown, which lost me my bet, helped me cover my tease of Minnesota and the over.

New England(+16) won and covered in London against Tampa Bay, 35-7, and
Green Bay(-7) won and covered at Cleveland, 31-3. Atlanta(+4) didn't even come close to covering at Dallas losing 37-21, and neither did OAKLAND(+7)--oooooops!--losing to the Jets, 38-0.

The week before last I did well on my tight game lines, and lost my sucker bets. Last week the big favorites covered, and my dogs lost. So now I'm loaded up on sucker bets this week, including the Dallas line above.

After the wild 3rd quarter that ended with Auburn up 33-20, the 4th quarter was scoreless. So ole miss(-4.5) was no good. This week I'm 0-1 on college. I stayed away from the big games, which had OREGON(+3) trouncing usc,47-20, and texas(-10) took care of business at OKLAHOMA STATE, 41-14. Last week I went 1-0 on college, 2-3 on the pros, or 3-3 if you include my Minnesota tease. Not that I care if you do. I got the $$ either way, keeping my head above water for the week. Meanwhile, the bet I didn't make, Boise State(100-1), looks pretty good too. I think USC dropping down could move them up to #4. I didn't take them after I watched their shootout vs. Tulsa, convinced that they couldn't play defense. Turns out Tulsa has a really good offense, so Boise is probably as viable as I had originally thought. (The other thing is most of the time bodog doesn't post the futures odds. They aren't posted right now, for instance, but I promise you wont get Boise at 100-1 now.

My Texas(8-1) bet for the BCS Championship is starting to look pretty good. After several shaky games, the 'Horns have played well the last two weeks. Even if you still think they