Week 3 Disintegration Recap, Week 4 Picks

Disgusting week--only won on two games, Niners over Giants, and Texans over Jags. Packers and Rams almost came through for me, but I didn't get good enough numbers. I'm moving on. The results are below.

 tennessee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND--Browns, 27-3 L

GREEN BAY(-2) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 L

GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 PUSH

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

houston (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE--Texans, 37-17, W

atlanta(+4) over DETROIT--Lions, 20-6, L

MINNESOTA (pk) over los angeles chargers--Chargers, 28-24 L

LAS VEGAS (-1) over pittsburgh--Steelers, 23-18, L

los angeles rams(+2.5) over CINCINNATI--Bengals, 19-16 L

tampa bay(+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA--Eagles, 25-11 L

AND, SAN FRANCISCO(-10.5) 30, new york giants 12, and SAN FRANCISCO(-11) 30, over new york giants 12.

Almost forgot-- won my double tease on the JETS and the under, and the pats and the under. The Pats 15-10 win was well under the actual 36.5 UNDER, as well as the teased 42.5, and the Jets could have lost by 9 or so and covered,

Too emotionally involved in the Thursday night game. GREEN BAY(+1.5) is the right side, but I just got burned fading the Lions (though that worked for me with the Seahawks). I did a double tease, with the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, I might take the Lions & under, and the Packers and over, to complete the teaser box.

I've taken kansas city(-9.5) over NYJETS. Usually I love getting points vs, the Chiefs, but after last weekend's beatdown of Chicago, we have to consider if we are at a stage of the season where KC just rolls up shitty teams. The Jets are not truly a shitty team, but a solid team with a shitty QB. Is the Jets defense good enough to keep this close? Rather than overthink this, I gave the 9.5 before it gets to 10 or 10.5.

I took miami(+3) at BUFFALO-- the wiseguys love Buffalo here, but at least I got the best of the number--mostly Buffalo is favored by 2.5. FWIW, Buffalo's home field advantage isn't particularly pronounced in September. On the flip side, Miami's sweltering heat is less pronounced in December, or whenever these teams play again.

Similarly, I took CLEVELAND(-2.5) over baltimore. The sharps like the Ravens here, but they definitely like them better at (+3), so at least I got the better of the number. This will be the biggest test of the Browns defense, as my understanding is they built this defense primarily to beat the Ravens, though since the Ravens have revamped their offense, I'm not sure which Ravens teams they were constructed to beat. In this case I also have the home team, unlike in Buffalo.

Additional bets I've made later in the week:

tampabay(+4) over NEWORLEANS: this opened at 3--I think there's value on the Bucs, especially with Winston playing QB for the Saints.

HOUSTON(+3) over pittsburgh--love the Steelers as a home dog; not so much as a road favorite.

larams(+1) at INDIANAPOLIS--this line is all over the place--you can find the Colts as a dog too.

lasvegas(+7) over LACHARGERS--line moved from 6.5 this morning--Mike Williams is out for the season, and the Raiders will probably have more fans at the game than the Chargers.

TENNESEE(+2.5) over cincinnati--Vrabel as a home dog--having said that, the Titans are ugly af to bet on.

Week Three Gambling Update

Two things to update--first, with Giants at San Francisco in the books, I am 1-0, as the Niners put a beating on New York, 30-12, as I predicted. Meanwhile, credit to B-Rod, as he is at least beginning to see the value of betting underdogs, even if in this case he picked the wrong one.

The other is after I picked up my son from school Friday afternoon, I drove across the river to Indiana to get more favorable lines on FanDuel than were available on Jackpot Jesus. I received an alert from FanDuel eventually, stating that I had bet $90 over the past 27 minutes. I suppose this is FanDuel's contribution to responsible gaming, much like the warnings on video screens at the casino I work at warning you not to leave your children unattended. I love these warnings, because the kid is sympathetically cute, yet his eyes seem a little too far apart, as though the genetic hand he was dealt may include some inbreeding, fitting for the predominantly redneck, if not hillbilly clientele our gambling oasis attracts./9

In any case, during my 27 minutes of betting on FanDuel, my son was with me in the car, and the air conditioning was on, so his being on the sunny side of the car was as far as any abuse or neglect went.

As for the abuse to my bankroll, here are my latest bets.

I took houston(+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE--this was the game that motivated me to cross the river, as Jackpot Jesus was only offering houston(+7.5). Houston has been quietly better than expected, while the Jags were wildly incompetent in the red zone vs. Kansas City. If anything, I need to watch that I'm not spite-betting against Jacksonville. On the other hand, while I don't recall the exact stats, Trevor Lawrence's record as a favorite in his young career is atrocious so far. And limited. I think the way the Jags came from behind to catch the Titans last year made them underdogs most of the time, as their record didn't flip from winning to losing until close to the end of the season. Since I'm generally looking for any excuse to bet underdogs, T-Law's crap record as a favorite will do.

I took GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans. I actually bet this one on Jackpot Jesus--I'd already taken GREEN BAY(-2), and as of Friday FanDuel had dropped to GREEN BAY(-1.5)...but Jackpot Jesus was down to PACKERS(-1). The lesson here is to always shop for the best line. 

On the other hand, opinion really seems to be split on this one, as a lot of people really like the Saints. Backing an indoor turf team outdoors on the road on grass totally goes against my principals, though I may be willing to break them for a team whose QB I consider less of a bum than Derek Carr...

...for instance larams(+2.5)over CINCINNATI. This is not so much a bet on Rams QB Matthew Stafford, as a bet against Joe Burrow, who is clearly injured and would likely not be playing if the Bengals were 1-1 right now. If it turns out that Burrow doesn't play, this line probably pops to rams(-3). Even if he does play there is no guarantee he will be effective.

On the flip side, this is the kind of short home favorite I generally like to back, and if a desperate Bengals team finds a way to win this could bit me in the ass, just as taking the Bengals at Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes was hopping around on one leg did. Ultimately I just love this angle and want some action on this game.

Took TAMPA BAY(+4.5)over philadelphia, the third week in a row I'm on the Bucs. Week 1 I didn't trust the Vikings, Week 2 I didn't trust the Bears coaching to get them to bounce back in a bounce-back spot, and I guess at this point I don't really trust the Eagles, as they allowed a back-door push vs. the Vikings, and  came a penalty flag away from doing the same vs. the Patriots. I don't think the Eagles are nearly as good right now as they were last year, so until they tell us otherwise I think we can find value fading the Eagles.

I circled back to a bet I did last year, teasing the Jets and the under, and also teasing the Pats and the under--this bumps the under from 36.5 to 42.5, and gives me a 12 point window of outcomes where I can win both bets. Both these teams have solid defenses and fairly inept offenses, so the six point tease is proportionately a bigger cushion than, say, Colorado at Oregon, o/u 70.5, for instance.

After that I did some moneyline parleys, without breaking down all of them, here are the teams I took, with their moneylines:

Houston +310

Atlanta +140

Denver +225

Tennessee +162

Tampa Bay +194

Los Angeles +120

I am not convinced that round-robin moneyline parleys are a good deal, so these bets are a bit of an experiment. I will let you know the results, if FanDuel gives them to me in a way that I can decipher.

To make it easier to keep track, I will list the single games I've bet for this week here.

tennessee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND

GREEN BAY(-2) over new orleans

GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over indianapolis

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over indianapolis

houston (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE

atlanta(+4) over DETROIT

MINNESOTA (pk) over los angeles chargers

LAS VEGAS (-1) over pittsburgh

los angeles rams(+2.5) over CINCINNATI

tampa bay(+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA

AND, SAN FRANCISCO(-10.5) 30, new york giants 12, and SAN FRANCISCO(-11) over new york giants 12.

NFL Week 2 recap and Week 3 picks

Week 2 was a weird gambling week, as I went 3-2-3 with, that's right, three pushes, as the Vikings came back to lose by six at Philly on Thursday, the Rams kicked a late FG to lose to the 49ers by seven Sunday, and the Panthers came back to lose by three to New Orleans. If I'd gone to Indiana sooner, I could have gotten LOS ANGELES(+8) or (+8.5), or at least (+7.5). This would have been a back-door cover if I hadn't gotten the worst of the number.

In other games, The Lions failed to cover the spread, and lost outright in OT to Seattle, The Chargers found a way to lose to Tennessee in OT, and the Bucs handled the Bears, 27-17, so I won all of those. The Jags failed to convert what seemed like several trips to the red zone against the Chiefs, losing 17-9, and the Pats failed to defend their home field vs Miami, losing 24-17, so I lost those.

The one that got away was PITTSBURGH(+2.5) over cleveland. I waited, hoping the line would move to three, and it never did. I should have trusted the spot and took +2.5. 

When the Browns took the lead with a first half touchdown, they went for two and converted, taking an 11-7 lead, I was glad to have stayed away, as these extra points could swing a result away from me, but Pittsburgh came through in the end

This week's Thursday game opened at SAN FRANCISCO(-10) over nygiants, got up to 11, and came back to 10. The Giants came back from down about 28 vs. the Cardinals last Sunday. Did they turn a corner, or are they due for a letdown after an emotional victory? Factor in back-to-back road games, short rest, and Saquon Barkley's injury, and the Giants' inability to deal with a similarly dominant Cowboys defense, and I think we have enough reasons to take 49ers(-10).

San Diego  and Minnesota look like 0-2 mirror images of each other, high powered offenses who always find a way to choke. One of them has to win this week, so I took the home team, incongruous as it may seem for the Chargers to start 0-3. I got MINNESOTA(pk) over los angeles chargers, but I've since seen VIKINGS(+1), as well as (+1.5). These are dead numbers, so I don't think I'll bet it again.

Took tennesee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND, basically on the strength of Mike Vrabel's winning record as an underdog. Apparently the Browns have not allowed opposing teams into their red zone yet this year, as Monday night the Steelers did all their scoring on long plays in their 26-22 victory over the Browns. I could see this being a problem for the Titans' less-than-explosive offense. Taking the points.

The 2-0 Saints are visiting the 1-1 Packers this week, New Orleans having won their first two games by a combined four points, while Green Bay blew a 24-12 lead at Atlanta to lose by one, a result that could have got you a middle with the line moves from green bay(-1.5) to ATLANTA(-1.5) last week. This one opened at GREEN BAY(-1.5), and by the time I bet it I got GREEN BAY(-2)over new orleans.

I took atlanta(+4)over DETROIT. Apparently there are people out there who think the Lions' high powered offense means they should be favored by more than 2.5 or 3, but this has been bet down to DETROIT(-3), so I guess there are more people out there that don't think the Lions should be giving out many points.

Not sure what is going on with the colts at RAVENS line. It wasn't available on my underground book, "Jackpot Jesus," (no, really), until today, while on FanDuel the line moved from BALTIMORE(-8.5)over indianapolis down to (-7.5). Not sure if this line move is because the books trust backup QB Gardner Minshew more than concussed Anthony Richardson, or if people are just betting the Colts. I suspect Jackpot Jesus was waiting for Indy QB clarity to post a line, & since the Colts are the next closest team where I am after the Bengals, it is possible that local $$ has moved the line, though that doesn't explain why the FanDuel line came down as well. Between the Ravens' performance last week at Cincinnati, and their tendency to run up the score vs. weaker teams, I feel fine backing the Ravens.

Two years ago I got into a nice groove betting for & against the Raiders, as the books seemed to overreact to their previous week's results over and over again. I am hoping to get into a similar grove this year, betting on & against a similarly mediocre team. I have LAS VEGAS(-1) over pittsburgh, as the Steelers travel west on short rest after an emotional win Monday night. Apparently I'm not the only one fading the Steelers, as this line has moved to LAS VEGAS(-2.5). I'm not convinced that these teams don't like each other due to their rivalry back in the 70's, but the Raiders came through for me two years ago when the Steelers visited, so I'm throwing my $$ on them again.

Week One recap, Week Two bets/preview

 Week one was a weird gambling week. At about 4pm Sunday I was 6-1, but by about 8 I was 6-4, because that's how one-sided Dallas' beat-down of the Giants was. After they carted Aaron Rodgers off the field Monday night I was convinced I was skidding to 6-5, but the Jets recovered to win outright in OT, putting me at 7-4 for the week.

I'm subdividing my results for the week, to see if there is any difference between my own picks and those I picked up from my wiseguys, and for that matter, how I we would have done on the games I stayed away from because we disagreed.

The only games I felt strongly about before taking in any outside advice were lions(+5.5) over CHIEFS, BROWNS(+2.5)over bengals, and STEELERS(+2.5)over 49ers. I went 2-1 on these, with the Lions winning outright, the Browns crushing, and the Steelers getting crushed.

In the other games, Atlanta(-3.5) came through and beat Carolina by 14, though they took awhile to pull away--didn't feel great about that one.

Tampa Bay(+6) won outright at Minnesota, 20-17, and Tennessee(+3) lost but covered at New Orleans, 16-15. Mike Vrabel covered the spread, going for a field goal to close the gap to one, though this was with enough time remaining that it doesn't look like he was just trying to cover the spread. Apparently Tannehill looked horrible in that one, so I guess I feel a bit lucky.

Arizona(+7) lost but covered at Washington, 20-16. I think I failed to mention that my main reason for taking the Cards was that the C-words had the most one sided betting on them, an automatic fade.

So at that point I was 6-1, going into the late afternoon games. There, the Broncos(-3.5) gave up a late TD to lose to the Raiders, 17-16, and the Patriots(+3.5) lost to the Eagles 25-20. Towards the end of the game the Pats had a 2-point conversion called back that would have brought them within three, so maybe I got a bit unlucky there. The Pats got down early and could have rolled over like the Steelers, but they didn't.

Speaking of rolling over, the Giants lost to Dallas 40-0, embarrassing themselves in their home opener Sunday night. When Aaron Rodgers got hurt Monday night I sort of expected the Jets to roll over as well, but they came back from down 10 or so to force overtime and get the win on a long punt return. Do I feel lucky on that one? Yes. Yes I do.

I don't think I realized it going into the weekend, but I bet against all of the consensus top six teams. Does this mean I have huge balls? Perhaps. Interestingly enough, all the AFC teams (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) lost outright, while the NFC teams (49ers, Eagles and Cowboys won and covered, 2/3 of them in blowouts.

In games I didn't bet, the Ravens won and covered vs the Texans, and the Jags won and covered at the Colts. I liked the favorites in both of these games, while the syndicate boys liked the dogs. The favorites didn't pull away in either of these games until late.

This week I took seattle(+6) at DETROIT. I think this line is an overreaction to the Lions win, as well as the Seahawks loss to a Ram team that might not suck as much as we think.

One of the most favorable trends you can back is teams who lose by 10 or more as short dogs the next week. Seattle fits into this, and I think you can make a case that the Lions should be at most a 3.5 point favorite. The other team this fits is the Bears, who lost to the Packers 38-20. Right now you can get chicago(+2.5) or (+3) at TAMPA BAY. So this should be a pick, but I'm tempted to assume the Bears coaching staff is too dumb to make adjustments, so I might take the Bucs here.

Backing up to Thursday, the EAGLES line has dropped from 7 to 6 vs the vikings. This is almost certainly sharp money, given that it has hit early, but I am leaning the other way with EAGLES(-6). I believe this game was a week 2 Monday night game last year, and I got it wrong, taking the Vikings, who got stomped, 24-7. This feels pretty reactionary chasing the previous loss, even if it was a year ago, but I am down on Minnesota.

Leaning TITANS(+3) over chargers--this is sort of terrifying, because from what I've heard, Tannehill was horrible last week, and offense is almost always more impressive than defense, which is why a team that lost 36-34 to the Dolphins is favored on the road over a team that lost 16-15 to the Saints. On the other hand, I trust Mike Vrabel, while I think San Diego's coach is incompetent enough that I am choosing not to look up his name out of spite. This is either found money, or I will look like a fool on Monday.

Likewise with NEW ENGLAND(+2.5) vs miami--these two teams seem to split every year. Even when Miami sucks they win the game at home in December. I don't think the Pats suck, which makes it a little easier to believe they will find a way to throttle the scariest offense in the league. Actually on FanDuel I can get NE(+3) now...it was only +2 there yesterday. Hmm.

CINCINNATI has dropped from (-3.5) to -3 over baltimore on FanDuel. I think I will probably stay away because both these teams seem to have a bit of a malaise hanging over them right now. Cincy is off to another one of their slow starts, and the Ravens new offense doesn't seem to have worked out the kinks just yet. The bounce back from getting humiliated angle favors the Bengals, so now that I can give only three I might do that.

Now that the Rams surprised us all and beat the Seahawks, do they actually deserve to be 7.5 to 8 point dogs at home vs the 49ers? Haven't I learned my lesson betting against the 49ers? You know I love these home dogs. Leaning LARAMS(+8) over sanfrancisco.

Was leaning chiefs(-3) over JAGS, but now that the line has moved, I'm leaning JAGS(+3.5)over chiefs. This is where you turn into Neo seeing the matrix, when you start betting numbers rather than teams.

Two Monday night games this week. Leaning CAROLINA(+3)over neworleans, because home dogs. That and I watched the highlights from Panthers at Falcons, and Carolina looked better than I expected. In the other, my syndicate boys like Cleveland because they don't think Pittsburgh's offensive line can handle the Browns' front 7. On the other hand, the Steelers are one of these teams you're supposed to bet because they just got humiliated, and they are of course home dogs, so I am leaning PITTSBURGH(+2.5)over cleveland, but I may wait in hopes of getting (+3).

Line moves

 Of the games I’ve bet this week, only DENVER(-3.5)over las vegas has moved where it could be worth betting again, now DENVER(-3).

In the other direction, BROWNS(+2.5) has dipped to BROWNS(+1), bucs(+6)over VIKINGS is down to bucs(+4.5), titans(+3)over SAINTS is down to (-2.5), and GIANTS(+3.5) over cowboys is down to (+3). These moves are all on my local book—apparently it takes more to move FanDuel, which makes sense since they are nationwide.

NFL Week One Bets, etc.

 We're about 30 hours out from the NFL opener, & I have made several bets, so there is plenty to talk about. Let's ignore the elephant in the room that I haven't published in this space since 2014 and jump right in.

I consume several gambling podcasts, and the one I take the most seriously includes a guy who has worked or still works with a betting syndicate. Not all of these picks are my own, but I think it is fair to say that they have taught me to fish, as the metaphor goes, so much of the time I have come to my own conclusions by the time they chime in and (mostly) confirm what I was already thinking.

In the last couple weeks I got my hands on Billy Walters' autobiography. In case you've never heard of him, Billy is considered the biggest, most successful sports better of all time. While there may be some limeys or other foreigners who have won more on soccer, cricket, or some other niche sports like Jai Alai (sp?) or women's hoops, they are not on my radar. Billy includes a couple of chapters on his own system towards the end of the book. While I have not tried to emulate his system yet, and may not ever, due to the intensive research & data required, I intend to keep my eye on his system this year. 

Meanwhile, my basis for picking games is much more focused on the psychology of setting lines, since that requires much less work and time, and is easily grasped. Essentially, we start with a base assumption that sportsbooks set lines intending to manipulate the public into making mistakes based on what they "know," or their own assumptions. We'll see if I can integrate some of Mr. Walters system into my bets this season, but no promises!

The Thursday Night opener, Detroit at Kansas City, opened with the Chiefs as a 6.5 point favorite, and has since dipped to 4.5-5.5, due to $$ coming in on the Lions, including a torrent in the last day or so, since DT Chris Jones is still holding out, and since TE Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee yesterday.

The Lions were always the sharp side in this one, not because I am a Lions fan (I am) but because everybody knows Patrick Mahomes is more or less the football messiah, capable of both blowing out KC's opponents, and pulling miracles out of his @$$ at the last minute, throwing from any and all arm angles, with and without looking where he is throwing. His game tape is so sick it is difficult to be even more hyperbolic than is appropriate.

Having said all that, Kansas City has a bad habit of letting their foes catch up. Throughout their current run of three Super Bowl appearances in four years their defense has never been that good. While Mahomes' record as a three-or-less point favorite or as a dog is excellent, as the line climbs, his results dip. You should always be looking to fade the Chiefs once the spread gets near a touchdown or more.

The Kelce injury moved the line. Walters' system insists that you line shop, so for the first time in a few years I opened a second sportsbook account. If I really get serious I may have four or five accounts by the end of the season.

My second account is with FanDuel. I put some $$ in it Tuesday night, knowing I wouldn't be able to bet there until I went to work the next day, since I work in Indiana, and Kentucky, which is legalizing sports betting, will not go live until September 28. My other book is a local underground book in Kentucky, & I'm not sure what they are going to do when it becomes legal. I wouldn't be surprised if the bigger players have put together a bunch of regulations designed to put their competition out of business. I'm convinced that "free markets" don't really exist so much as markets are controlled by cartels, but we can save that discussion for another day.

In any case, Tuesday night FanDuel had the Lions at +5.5, while my local book, who shall go unnamed, had +5, so I wasn't about to bet until I got to Indiana. As of this morning, my underground book had the Lions down to +4.5(!) while FanDuel still had +5.5. 4.5-5.5 is considered sort of a dead zone, but still--a full point! No way I'm settling for 4.5.

When I got to work, I was dismayed to discover that FanDuel thought I was still in Kentucky. With some difficulty I went through about four steps to make sure my wifi & other settings were correct (they were) and used the app's chat function to interface with something that definitely wasn't human, which naturally advised me to take the steps I'd already taken. Thanks. Fuck you, FanDuel. Eventually I tried turning my phone off, and turning it on again. The app suddenly figured out I was in Indiana. If you have any similar issues I'd try that first, since you probably have your settings the same as I do, or you still have a flip phone like my boomer parents.

So I got my lions(+5.5) over KANSAS CITY bet down, along with several others, which follow.

I took ATLANTA(-3.5) over carolina, deviating from my rule to look to bet dogs. While I'm cautiously optimistic about the Panthers chances this year, since the NFC South sucks, and I think Heisman winner Bryce Young is a special player who will do some good things before he gets turned into a pancake by  opposing defenses, this will be his first NFL start, and I expect enough growing pains to pay (-3.5) with Atlanta.

My syndicate people are betting houston(+10) at BALTIMORE. The Ravens have a history of running up the score on weak teams, which makes me want to make another exception and take the favorite. So I'm sitting this one out for now.

I bet CLEVELAND(+2.5)over cincinnati a few weeks ago, knowing my syndicate people would definitely have the same side. Even with the Bengals recent success, the Browns have tended to have their number, and they're a home dog. You can go suck off Joe Burrow all you want, as long as you bet home dogs like you should. We don't yet know if DeShawn Watson is going to be any good, and the books know you don't know that, so they are charging you too much to take the Bengals. Don't be a square.

Also knew the syndicate boys would take INDIANAPOLIS over jacksonville, but I may pass since I didn't get +5.5, and now both books are down to +4.5. Also Jonathan Taylor is on the PUP list and the Colts could be horrible. Anthony Richardson is another rookie who could be way better the second half of the season than he is opening day. 

Took tampa bay(+6) over MINNESOTA on FanDuel--the other book had (+5.5). Are the Bucs 3.5 points worse than the Vikings? (Implied by the line, as home field is considered to be worth 2.5;-- 2.5+3.5+6. Maybe, but since I have not tried to power rate the teams the way Walters does, I am going to err on the side of taking the points. That's really most of what I am doing, especially in Week 1. We know which teams were good last year, and we've had all off season to build a narrative in our heads of what will happen this year, but we don't know. Admit the limits of your knowledge and take the points.

Took tennessee(+3) at NEW ORLEANS. This line is probably fair, with the home team favored by three, but I'm just not crazy about the Saints. While probably an upgrade, and probably the best QB in the division, Derek Carr is a bum on his way to retirement, and there is a good chance Alvin Kamara is washed. Tennessee Coach Mike Vrabel will have his boys ready to play.

I had a Super Bowl future on the 49ers last year, and they'll probably make another run this year, but do the Steelers deserve to be a 2.5 dog at home? Pittsburgh finished last year on a 7-2 streak, and two years ago they beat the Bills outright in week 1 as a 5.5 point dog. If you always bet Mike Tomlin getting points you are ahead. If you always take the Steelers moneyline when they are underdogs you are ahead. Take PITTSBURGH(+2.5)over san francisco. This is the other game I bet weeks ago.

This might make you throw up in your mouth a little, but I took arizona(+7) at WASHINGTON. Probably wouldn't have done it without a nudge from the syndicate boys. The Cardinals may be the favorites to end the season with the worst record in the league, but none of these teams has given up on the season yet.

Stayed away from Green Bay at Chicago, where the Bears are favored by 1 to 1.5. Between my Justin Fields love and my Packers future bet, I may be a bit biased. Maybe you see this one more clearly than I do.

Took DENVER(-3.5) over las vegas. For me this is a bet on Sean Payton pulling the Broncos' heads out of their asses, while the Raiders downgrade, pulling Jimmy Garrapolo off the trash heap to replace Derrick Carr. If Russell Wilson sucks again this year I will stop giving points with Denver and look to bet their unders.

So far I've stayed away from miami at SAN DIEGO...I mean LOS ANGELES CHARGERS. I want to take Miami, in part because I don't think the Chargers have any fan support, so no home field advantage to speak of. On the other hand, jet lag is real. My wiseguys like waiting for the number to move, and taking either CHARGERS(-2.5) or dolphins(+3.5) depending on which way it moves. This is a good reminder that often we are not really betting the teams, but the numbers. Once you truly recognize this you are sort of like Neo, seeing a bunch of green binary code, seeing the matrix. If this idea doesn't make any sense now, circle back to it later.

philadelphia at NEW ENGLAND--While there is movement every year as some teams rise, and others fall, until we see that movement, the Eagles are one of only three NFC teams I consider Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the Patriots appear to be the least talented team in their division. If you've made it this far you will probably not be surprised that I took NEW ENGLAND(+3.5) over philadelphia. The books know you want to take the Eagles. I haven't done the work to figure out what the line should be, and neither have you. It's probably at least a half or whole point less than it is. The books can't guarantee that you lose, but they can charge you enough to put the odds in their favor. Being on the right side of three points is the biggest part of that.

dallas(-3.5) at NYGIANTS You probably have high expectations for the Cowboys this year. I do too. You may expect the Giants to take a step back this year. After all, it is uncommon for three teams from the same division to make the playoffs. And yet, the Giants were a playoff team last year, and at this point we are only guessing at what will happen next to feed our own vanity. More than a field goal at home is too much to give, especially in a divisional matchup. NYGIANTS(+3.5)over dallas. I probably should have waited to bet this, as the suckers trying to win back their early losses may bet it up to four.

Speaking of waiting to bet, I also took NYJETS(+2.5)over buffalo, but the move is probably to wait until Sunday or Monday, to see if you can get JETS(+3). I do wonder, though, if the Jets & Aaron Rodgers' appearance on Hard Knocks over the past month has made them into a more public team than the Bills. I believe the answer is no for now, but if they win that could quickly change. For now I'd still look to get that +3 or better yet, +3.5.

Since I started writing this yesterday I've seen some threes for the Giants-Cowboys line, though as of right now FanDuel and my local book are back to 3.5.