Michigan Wolverines Suck
Last week I evened up my record for the season. After Ole Miss got me to 1-0 on the NCAA, washington(+6.5) beat PHILADELPHIA outright, 17-12, injuring Michael Vick along the way. SANDIEGO(-9) laid the smack down on arizona, 41-10. My only blemish was chicago(+4) losing to NYGIANTS, 17-3. I was worried about the Giants bouncing back, but if they don't give Jay Cutler a concussion just before the half, this could have come out differently, so I still feel okay about this pick. Not great, but okay.
The only line I've jumped on early this week so far is
kansas city(+8.5)over INDIANAPOLIS. Apparently I'm not alone, as the line has dropped to 7.5. Bodog still had the line at 8 a half hour ago or so. I initially fet a little iffy about this, as Indy is capable of a blowout, especially at home, and with my KC fantasy interests I may be vulnerable to some of their 3-0 Kool-Aid. On the other hand, Indy's defense would seem to give Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles a nice chance to run wild as long as the game is close, and 8.5 is a lot to give for a team that hasn't been terribly consistent.
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Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week on Behind the Bets likes KC, same as I do, while Colin Cowherd likes Indy in his Sizzlin' 7. When I've tuned into him, Colin's 7 have been notoriously inaccurate. He argues his points well, but he tends to end up picking what should happen, rather than what actually happens. Essentially this means he picks alot of favorites, where the smart maney is looking to bet underdogs.
Millman's guy also likes michigan state(+4.5)over MICHIGAN, considering Michigan to be a one-man team (I agree) and State to be a step up in class defensively (not so sure about this). Bodog's vig also indicates that money is coming in on the dog. I generally stay away from games where I care too much about the outcome, and 5-0 State at 5-0 Michigan is as big a game as I can remember for the Green and White. Neither team has really done anything yet, but right now we both can hope for the kind of season neither deserves to expect.
Hope springs eternal. Actually hope will be cut off at the knees for one of these teams sometime Saturday evening, and probably for the other in another week or two. Hope is destined for the trash heap. Hope is fucked.
In any case, I am following Millman's guy in taking State and the points, though I do like to take more than a FG in rivalry games, and 4.5 is gravy. Check my Michigan-ND pick if you'd like an example of this.
Not sure why Florida is favored by 6.5 over LSU, (it was 7.5) or why Georgia is favored by 11 over Tennessee. Does Vegas hate both LSU and the Vols for their weird ending last week? I may have to consult with Mike B. on these games. Anytime you feel like Mike B. could help you get a handle on a game, you may want to stay away from it.
Otherwise, I've taken WASHINGTON(+3)over greenbay. While I'm a little concerned the 'Skins could be in for a letdown after their big win at Phily last week, but the Packer running game is Aaron Rodgers running around end and diving out of bounds, and their defense is not as good as advertised. I'm hardly the only one taking Washington here, though most places you can only get (+2.5), so I'm also getting a really good price.
Still thinking about sandiego(-6)at OAKLAND. I'm all about the home dogs, but
Darren McFadden is out, and the Raiders suck against the run. At some point the Chargers should stop disappointing every other week and go on a sick run. Maybe this is the week. Maybe last week was the week, when they trounced Arizona. No, they need to kick ass on the road to go on their run. It looks like I may start Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert on one of my fantasy teams, while I am playing against Philip Rivers in another, for whatever that's worth. I could start Malcom Floyd in the game vs. Rivers, but if his production keeps going to Antonio Gates that won't help me.
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Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week likes Arkansas over Texas A&M. Apparently there has been a ton of action on this game, or at least a ton of line movement. Sal says this line opened at 6.5, moved up to 8.5, then came down to 5.5, as two rival syndicates with rival opinions took turns betting the shit out of the line.
Arkansas had a nice lead on National Champion Alabama two weeks ago, so I have no problem buying into the Razorback hype--they're good. The Aggies similarly failed to hold a lead vs. Oklahoma State last week, ultimately losing a 38-35 shootout. The Aggies and Cowboys seemed determined to demonstrate that defense is not a priority in the Big XII(-2). They succeeded. Arkansas may be able to show them how the SEC plays defense, but they'll be doing it in Texas...BUT not in College Station. This game is in the Cowboys Stadium, 3 1/2 hours away in Dallas. The Cotton Bowl is 6 hours from the University of Arkansas. Will Texas A&M's 12th Man be effective in Dallas? Not as much as in College Station, I suspect, though that new stadium may do a solid job of holding in the noise. Saw Pacquiao-Clottey there, and that place is BADASS. arkansas(-6)over TEXAS A&M.
Covers.com's Teddy Covers likes Stanford to cover 9.5 points en route to beating the Trojans of USC this week. Where some see a revenge game for 'SC, Teddy sees a program in decline that couldn't revenge their way out of a wet paper bag. Unfortunately for me, this line has moved to 10. So be it. STANFORD(-10)over usc.
The only line I've jumped on early this week so far is
kansas city(+8.5)over INDIANAPOLIS. Apparently I'm not alone, as the line has dropped to 7.5. Bodog still had the line at 8 a half hour ago or so. I initially fet a little iffy about this, as Indy is capable of a blowout, especially at home, and with my KC fantasy interests I may be vulnerable to some of their 3-0 Kool-Aid. On the other hand, Indy's defense would seem to give Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles a nice chance to run wild as long as the game is close, and 8.5 is a lot to give for a team that hasn't been terribly consistent.
..................................
Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week on Behind the Bets likes KC, same as I do, while Colin Cowherd likes Indy in his Sizzlin' 7. When I've tuned into him, Colin's 7 have been notoriously inaccurate. He argues his points well, but he tends to end up picking what should happen, rather than what actually happens. Essentially this means he picks alot of favorites, where the smart maney is looking to bet underdogs.
Millman's guy also likes michigan state(+4.5)over MICHIGAN, considering Michigan to be a one-man team (I agree) and State to be a step up in class defensively (not so sure about this). Bodog's vig also indicates that money is coming in on the dog. I generally stay away from games where I care too much about the outcome, and 5-0 State at 5-0 Michigan is as big a game as I can remember for the Green and White. Neither team has really done anything yet, but right now we both can hope for the kind of season neither deserves to expect.
Hope springs eternal. Actually hope will be cut off at the knees for one of these teams sometime Saturday evening, and probably for the other in another week or two. Hope is destined for the trash heap. Hope is fucked.
In any case, I am following Millman's guy in taking State and the points, though I do like to take more than a FG in rivalry games, and 4.5 is gravy. Check my Michigan-ND pick if you'd like an example of this.
Not sure why Florida is favored by 6.5 over LSU, (it was 7.5) or why Georgia is favored by 11 over Tennessee. Does Vegas hate both LSU and the Vols for their weird ending last week? I may have to consult with Mike B. on these games. Anytime you feel like Mike B. could help you get a handle on a game, you may want to stay away from it.
Otherwise, I've taken WASHINGTON(+3)over greenbay. While I'm a little concerned the 'Skins could be in for a letdown after their big win at Phily last week, but the Packer running game is Aaron Rodgers running around end and diving out of bounds, and their defense is not as good as advertised. I'm hardly the only one taking Washington here, though most places you can only get (+2.5), so I'm also getting a really good price.
Still thinking about sandiego(-6)at OAKLAND. I'm all about the home dogs, but
Darren McFadden is out, and the Raiders suck against the run. At some point the Chargers should stop disappointing every other week and go on a sick run. Maybe this is the week. Maybe last week was the week, when they trounced Arizona. No, they need to kick ass on the road to go on their run. It looks like I may start Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert on one of my fantasy teams, while I am playing against Philip Rivers in another, for whatever that's worth. I could start Malcom Floyd in the game vs. Rivers, but if his production keeps going to Antonio Gates that won't help me.
..........................................
Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week likes Arkansas over Texas A&M. Apparently there has been a ton of action on this game, or at least a ton of line movement. Sal says this line opened at 6.5, moved up to 8.5, then came down to 5.5, as two rival syndicates with rival opinions took turns betting the shit out of the line.
Arkansas had a nice lead on National Champion Alabama two weeks ago, so I have no problem buying into the Razorback hype--they're good. The Aggies similarly failed to hold a lead vs. Oklahoma State last week, ultimately losing a 38-35 shootout. The Aggies and Cowboys seemed determined to demonstrate that defense is not a priority in the Big XII(-2). They succeeded. Arkansas may be able to show them how the SEC plays defense, but they'll be doing it in Texas...BUT not in College Station. This game is in the Cowboys Stadium, 3 1/2 hours away in Dallas. The Cotton Bowl is 6 hours from the University of Arkansas. Will Texas A&M's 12th Man be effective in Dallas? Not as much as in College Station, I suspect, though that new stadium may do a solid job of holding in the noise. Saw Pacquiao-Clottey there, and that place is BADASS. arkansas(-6)over TEXAS A&M.
Covers.com's Teddy Covers likes Stanford to cover 9.5 points en route to beating the Trojans of USC this week. Where some see a revenge game for 'SC, Teddy sees a program in decline that couldn't revenge their way out of a wet paper bag. Unfortunately for me, this line has moved to 10. So be it. STANFORD(-10)over usc.
Incidentally, Teddy is a University of Michigan grad. While I am following him on his Stanford pick, I made sure to talk smack to him on Covers.com's Facebook Page.
Last Saturday there was a Michigan flag up around the corner from me. I'd go vandalize it today, but I'm pretty busy...and it's light out. That would make 3 in the last year.
Only one original pick from me this week...so far. There's still time for some more NFL action, if I can make up my mind.
posted by roQQ | 6:46 PM
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