Sports Guy Blind to Bodog?

I'm listening to Bill Simmons and Joe House doing their NBA playoff edition for the 2nd time, and I've got http://www.bodoglife.com/ up, and I'm betting on series outcomes. I've been way too reluctant in the past to mix it up on these series outcomes. I'm trying to remember if I pulled the trigger on the Tigers sweeping the A's back in '06. I'm pretty sure I didn't, but check my archives. I did win my bets on the Tigers for the pennant, though they didn't come through in the World Series....but enough about baseball.

I already took Miami 4-3 Atlanta, at 7-1, and emailed Bill to let him know. Hopefully he reads it and gets some $$ down before the series starts, and hopefully he doesn't think I have some kind of psycho man-crush on him. No, my psycho man crushes are on Adrian Peterson (not because he's great, but because the Lions could have taken him instead of one more wide receiver), and on the top four or five left tackles the Lions are going to pass over when they take Matt Stafford. At this point I like Eugene Monroe from Virginia, since Baylor's guy had a knee injury, though I am plowing through The Blind Side, by Michael Lewis (excellent read so far, especially if you are too young to remember Bill Walsh revolutionizing the passing game, and Lawrence Taylor terrorizing quarterbacks to the point where he revolutionized pass blocking) which focuses on a man-child from Memphis named Michael Oher who has anchoring the left side of the Ole Miss OL of late, and is expected to go in the middle of the first round. I guess Oher is a bit of a sentimental favorite for me at this point....

Where was I, before I started fantasizing about left tackles?....Oh yeah. I've also taken
Boston 4-2 Chicago, at 7-2. I firmly think Boston wins this series, and I'm considering taking them to win in seven as a hedge, at 4-1. Here are all the odds for this series:

Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics - NBA Playoffs Round 1 - Exact Series Finish
All wagers have action.
Chicago Bulls 4-0 75/1
Chicago Bulls 4-1 30/1
Chicago Bulls 4-2 12/1
Chicago Bulls 4-3 15/1
Boston Celtics 4-0 3/1
Boston Celtics 4-1 7/4
Boston Celtics 4-2 7/2
Boston Celtics 4-3 4/1

I think Celtics in five is probably more likely than in seven, but it doesn't pay as well. Boston in six looks like a bargain. Of course, if the playoffs go like they did last year, seven would be the play. I watched that 76ers game Bill keeps going on about, and I like his reasoning, almost enough that I'd take the Celtics in five....nah--those odds suck.

I'm not going to print out the Cavs-Pistons odds, or bet this one. Cavs in four is 6-5, Cavs in five is 6-5. No other outcomes are plausible, unless LeBron breaks something. Yes, I'm still a Pistons fan. No, I don't want LeBron to get injured. Let's move on.

Here are the Dallas-San Antonio odds:

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs - NBA Playoffs Round 1 - Exact Series Finish
All wagers have action.
Dallas Mavericks 4-0 15/1
Dallas Mavericks 4-1 8/1
Dallas Mavericks 4-2 4/1
Dallas Mavericks 4-3 13/2
San Antonio Spurs 4-0 9/1
San Antonio Spurs 4-1 3/1
San Antonio Spurs 4-2 4/1
San Antonio Spurs 4-3 3/1

I was thinking about taking the Spurs in six, just because I don't see why this outcome gets longer odds than five or seven, but Bill and Joe like the Mavricks, so I'm considering that, as well as the Spurs vitamin G deficiency before I do anything rash. Since I tend not to follow the NBA closely until about.......NOW (9:00 PM EST, day before the playoffs start) I am mainly going by the results of the last several years of the playoffs when I say I like the Spurs. I am also remembering Bill's pick of the Suns over the Spurs last year, and his pick of the Suns over the Pistons in '05. (I know, I know, the Suns got robbed last year....but doesn't Dallas have enough of the choke gene that you don't trust them?) Bear with me...I'm trying to talk myself out of taking Dallas in seven, since I love those 13-2 odds, but I think I'm starting to talk myself into Spurs in five.... I just don't want to go against San Antonio in a home game seven. I like Dallas in six better than that. San Antonio don't exactly have a fortress, but they win on the road, and I'm not conviced that Dallas does. I'm letting this one percolate. Lets move on.

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trailblazers - NBA Playoffs Round 1 - Exact Series Finish
All wagers have action.
Houston Rockets 4-0 15/1
Houston Rockets 4-1 17/2
Houston Rockets 4-2 7/2
Houston Rockets 4-3 11/2
Portland Trailblazers 4-0 10/1
Portland Trailblazers 4-1 7/2
Portland Trailblazers 4-2 9/2
Portland Trailblazers 4-3 3-1

Bill and Joe seem fascinated by this one, and so am I. I have not seen the Trail Blazers play all year, but I keep hearing good things about them. I'm trying to decide if I would be more or less fascinated if I'd seen them play. This feels like a blind date. I don't know if I'm trying to figure out if Portland is hot, or if they'll put out, and if so, in how many games...er, dates....er, games. I'm confused. Or maybe it's one of those cases where you "met" on the internet, and you're trying to decide if she's really 18. (I'm assuming they need a certain level of maturity to win a playoff series--jailbait is BAD you sickos.)

So much for disturbing metaphors that should not be mentioned*. I'm leaning towards taking both of these in seven, since I like the 'Blazers, but also like Houston's 11-2 odds. The odds on this one seem to indicate that the public thinks anyting could happen in this one, and I agree. I really know too little to have much of an opinion. On that note, DON'T BET ON SPORTS. IF YOU MUST BET ON SPORTS, DON"T LISTEN TO ME. I need to work in a disclaimer more often. Having said that, I still like my chances betting these matchups better than my chances on college football, which isn't saying much. If there's a lesson to be learned from this blog, it's right above in caps. That and the Yankees suck (true by their lofty standards) and Notre Dame sucks, fact.**

I just did a little bit of research. In playoff games last year where at least one team had three wins , the home team went 15-7. In game sevens, the only team that won on the road was San Antonio. On the other hand, six out of 15 series were decided in six games, more than any other result. Now I get why five and seven game series' tend to get shorter odds than 6 game series.' I still may have to pick some of them to go six, since they are offering the best odds, and they happen more than any other result. Or maybe I'll take Portland in six and seven. Bill is picking them in five, but he hasn't seen the odds. I think he'd go for six too, if he checked it out.

Why not? Portland 4-2 Houston at 9-2. And I'm taking Portland 4-3 Houston at 3-1 as a hedge. I'm betting enough at 3-1 to break even on the two bets, and hoping Portland can steal one on the road. Both of these teams have great home records and crap road records, so I don't want to pick too many road wins....

Not really any bargains to be had between the Jazz and Lakers, unless you think Utah can pull off the mother of all upsets....

Orlando over Philly in 5 is 5/4. Seems reasonable to me. If you think Orlando can sweep, or Philly can win 2 games, the odds get more interesting. If you think Philly can win, the odds are quite attractive. I don't.

Here are the odds for Miami vs Atlanta:

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks - NBA Playoffs Round 1 - Exact Series Finish
All wagers have action.
Miami Heat 4-0 15/1
Miami Heat 4-1 10/1
Miami Heat 4-2 9/2
Miami Heat 4-3 7/1
Atlanta Hawks 4-0 8/1
Atlanta Hawks 4-1 5/2
Atlanta Hawks 4-2 4/1
Atlanta Hawks 4-3 3/1

See why I like the Heat in 7? Looks like a bargain. Maybe I'll hedge it with Heat in 6 or Hawks in 7. I'm not sure if either of these are reliable enough to be good hedges, whereas I feel good about 'Blazers in seven, sight unseen.

Bill and Joe like New Orleans to upset Denver, and I like the New Orleans odds.


New Orleans Hornets vs Denver Nuggets - NBA Playoffs Round 1 - Exact Series Finish
All wagers have action.
New Orleans Hornets 4-0 25/1
New Orleans Hornets 4-1 15/1
New Orleans Hornets 4-2 5/1
New Orleans Hornets 4-3 8/1
Denver Nuggets 4-0 7/1
Denver Nuggets 4-1 9/4
Denver Nuggets 4-2 7/2
Denver Nuggets 4-3 3/1

I guess I still don't beleive in Denver either, though I do believe in a healthy Chauncey Billups. Maybe Hornets in 7 at 8-1. Chris Paul could take this series over, right? Will Billups cover him? Is that a good matchup? Billups could play defense, last I knew, but Paul is ridiculously good...

I should probably stay away from this one, but I'm taking Dallas 4-3 San Antonio at 13-2. Love those odds. Since I don't really trust Dallas, I'm taking San Antonio 4-2 Dallas at 4-1 as a hedge. Watch, now San Antonio will win in 7, sneaking between my two outcomes. I might have to hedge again, with San Antonio in 7, at 3-1. Yeah, book it.

I'm taking the Hornets in 7, at 8-1. I like these odds, and Chris Paul gives them a fighting chance. I'm also considering a Nuggets hedge. Meanwhile, Bill and Joe may have talked me into LA in 6. They went six against Utah last year. The Jazz put them through hell. Six games at 4-1 beats the crap out of Five games at 1-1.

I hope Bill reads my email and checks out these NBA odds. I'm just trying to imagine how his podcast would have went if he had Exact Series Finish odds, like these. I think it would have been fantastic. On the other hand, Bill would probably inflame his gambling problem worse than if you were to rub your eczema on tree bark for a couple hours. Not that you have eczema or anything.

Speaking of eczema, I'm taking the Nug's in 7 at 3-1 as a hedge, and I'm taking LA in 6 at
4-1. We'll see how this all turns out when the smoke clears in a week or 2.

Little update on The Blind Side, since I've taken a dump twice since I started writing this, and that's what's been keeping me company in the can. Some parts of Chapter Six are amazing. I'm starting to think that if Mike Oher was availible at the tail end of the first round, where the Lions' other 1st round pick is, I could live with them taking Matt Stafford with the first pick, as much as I'd rather they hold out for Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy next year. Oher supposedly will go about 16th though, so I don't see him falling far enough. I need to keep in mind that he's still in high school in chapter six as well--keeping some perspective...though my perspective as a Lions fan is definitely from the bottom, and something I'd like to trade for a perspective to be named later.

*Before you try to lock me up, listen to Adam Carolla's podcast with Jimmy Pardo (http:carollaradio.com/). See what kind of wierdness you come up with after he melts your brain. If Adam Carolla podcasts and BS Reports are the biggest influences in my life I probably should be locked up, come to think of it....I'll shut up now.

**This will eventually change, at which point I will retreat to "Notre Dame is overrated." When they win eight games next year, just remember that ESPN said that their big games next year are USC (will thump ND), Michigan (sucks until they prove otherwise) Michigan State (one man team, whose man is going pro) and Boston College (due to descend to the middle of the ACC, though they completely dominated ND last year and probably aren't losing anybody, aside from that first rounder DE) if Notre Dame ever gets good they should beat everyone but USC. And yes, I went to Michigan State and BC. One of them might be decent, but could Notre Dame finish in the top 3 of the Big Ten or the ACC next year? They sure as hell wouldn't have last year.