Behind the Magic 8-Ball?

It's that time of year again....That's right, your favorite baseball team hasn't been eliminated from the pennant race yet! They say Opening Day is the best day of the year, because that's when hope springs anew, and they have a point. By August 60-70% of the Major League teams will be eliminated from the playoffs, barring some amazing streak that almost never comes. Most teams, and their fans, are just praying that the season will end early, and it never does. The fans tune out, and wait for the NFL season to start, while the players hope to not get injured too seriously.

So right now is pretty cool, because after seven or eight games, almost nobody is out of the playoff hunt.

ESPN ran a SportsNation poll yesterday, asking how much you could predict the rest of the season based on the first week. The options were approximately

a.) Quite a bit
b.) A little bit
and
c.) Not at all.

I brought up the US map, showing which states went for which answer. The entire country went for "not at all,"

except...

for...


Michigan.

A majority in every state picked (c.) except for Michigan. In Michigan, almost a majority picked (b.), but not quite. Very few states had more than 10% going for (a.). Most of the states near Michigan had smaller majorities going for (c.), generally less than 55%. New Hampshire was the only state with over 70% picking (c.).

It made me wonder if the Midwest have a different understanding of "a little bit." Maybe only a little bit different, but different.

I figured out New Hampshire. The Red Sox are in last place. The rest of New England was close behind the Granite State, with (c.) getting votes in the 60's. Why didn't Massachusets keep up with New Hampshire? I blame a combination of transplated New Yorkers and the educated.

And I think I've figured out Michigan as well. Last year the Tigers started out 0-7, then went to about 1-12. ESPN published multiple stories about how no team that started out that badly ever made the playoffs. Tiger fans remember.

The memories aren't all bad, though. In 2006 the Tigers got off to a red-hot start. They cooled off eventually, but still earned a Wild Card spot, then made it to the World Series. They lost, but the last time the Tigers won a World Series was in 1984. That year Detroit started out 35-5. 35-5! Not even the '98 Yankees started out that hot, even though they ultimately won more games.

So maybe in Michigan the first few games seem to have more predictive power. Maybe the Lions recent 0-16 record reinforces this mindset, and forces out memories of a team that started 6-2...and finished 6-10.

I feel kind of bad writing about this, because SportsNation's apparent "polls for polling's sake" point of view is pretty asinine, and shouldn't be encouraged. Sometimes it exposes regional homerism, but so what? Unless I can figure out a way to profit from these tendancies while gambling, I'm not terribly interested.

Speaking of gambling, and speaking of nobody being eliminated yet, here are the current odds for the AL Pennant:

Odds to win the 2009 American League Championship
All wagers have action. Singles only. Max $500
Baltimore Orioles 50/1
Boston Red Sox 5/2
Chicago White Sox 20/1
Cleveland Indians 8/1
Detroit Tigers 10/1
Kansas City Royals 40/1
Los Angeles Angels 11/2
Minnesota Twins 14/1
New York Yankees 2/1
Oakland Athletics 13/1
Seattle Mariners 30/1
Tampa Bay Rays 8/1
Texas Rangers 30/1
Toronto Blue Jays 40-1

I've cut and pasted these odds off http://www.bodoglife.com/. I could make them look better, but that's alot of work. Of course, you can now click above and go right to bodog, so you should be thanking me. Actually, they should be thanking me. You know you'll probably lose, right? Not to mention the fact that bodog's odds are generally crap. Here are the odds for the National League Pennant:

Odds to win the 2009 National League Championship
All wagers have action.
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/1
Atlanta Braves 10/1
Chicago Cubs 5/2
Cincinnati Reds 18/1
Colorado Rockies 35/1
Florida Marlins 12/1
Houston Astros 40/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/1
Milwaukee Brewers 15/1
New York Mets 3/1
Philadelphia Phillies 5/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 50/1
San Diego Padres 40/1
San Francisco Giants 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 11/1
Washington Nationals 50/1

Notice that bets on AL teams have a limit of $500, while in the NL it just says all bets have action. I'm not sure what the deal is there. I think they just screwed up. Anyone feel like getting down a G on one of the NL teams to test this out?

Right now I think it's too early to put any $$ down on anybody. The only time I've ever bet this early was on the Mets last year, right after they got Johann Santana. How'd that work out? Since I bet immediately when the Mets got him, that was actually much earlier than a week into the regular season, like February.* I was right to think the odds would narrow on the Mets, so this would be my only chance to get a decent bet down. Even then the odds were 5-1, worse than any other team I've bet on. (If you could sell your bet during the season like a stock option I could have made a profit. I believe you can do this on Ladbrokes, but last I knew they weren't taking bets from Americans.) This year the Mets are already a 3-1 shot. You won't see me taking them again. I'm looking for some long shots to get behind. I think I took the Oakland Athletics late in '05 at about 6-1 as a hedge. That didn't work out either, but my bet on the White Sox came through anyway.**

I want to take Texas to win the West, since they are supposed to be about a 10-1 shot, and the Angels are nothing special. I don't think the Rangers can win the pennant without better pitching, but their bats might be able to carry them past the Angels and A's. (And Mariners. Seattle is in first right now.) Sadly, if Texas managed to win anything while I'm out of the country, I could come back to Texas next year to exhorbitantly inflated ticket prices. (Good thing the economy is in a shambles.***) Sadder yet, bodog is not currently offering odds on divisional races...right now. If they do not in the near future, I will call them what I have called them many times in the past--COWARDS. Not that I'm saying it yet. Yet.
Speaking of cowards, here's bodog's odds for the World Series, since they don't have the stones to bust out some divisional odds:

Odds to win the 2009 World Series
All wagers have action. Singles only. Max $500
Arizona Diamondbacks 18/1
Atlanta Braves 22/1
Baltimore Orioles 100/1
Boston Red Sox 11/2
Chicago Cubs 15/2
Chicago White Sox 35/1
Cincinnati Reds 50/1
Cleveland Indians 20/1
Colorado Rockies 75/1
Detroit Tigers 25/1
Florida Marlins 30/1
Houston Astros 100/1
Kansas City Royals 70/1
Los Angeles Angels 13/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 13/1
Milwaukee Brewers 50/1
Minnesota Twins 30/1
New York Mets 8/1
New York Yankees 5/1
Oakland Athletics 25/1
Philadelphia Phillies 15/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 150/1
San Diego Padres 80/1
San Francisco Giants 30/1
Seattle Mariners 65/1
St Louis Cardinals 20/1
Tampa Bay Rays 12/1
Texas Rangers 65/1
Toronto Blue Jays 70/1
Washington Nationals 125/1

I don't usually bet on the World Series Champ. Pennants are hard enough.


*The offseason really is the best time of year to be a Mets fan. They have more money than anyone else in the National League, and until the season starts they don't have to try to beat anyone. Nobody can outspend the Mets, except for the Yankees and Red Sox.

**So did my bet on Houston. I'll probably be bringing this up for years. Of course, I would have made more if the Tigers had won the World Series the next year, since I had them at like 50-1...or maybe it was 40-1. It's all in the archives.

***But not so much in Texas. There the economy's holding pretty steady. Good thing the Rangers probably won't win anything.