Playoff Pix and Hedge

Since I failed last week to write about my picks, this week I will review last weeks results, and front load this weeks picks. Afterwards I may reason out my picks a bit, but in case I don't, I at least want to get the picks in.

Last week I took nygiants(+3)overTAMPABAY. The Giants have been hot, and Tampa Bay has been so under the readar that if somebody told me they had missed the playoffs I would probably have to disprove it by mentally eliminating the other teams: "Carolina....Atlanta....New Orleans....How are the Saints doing? Hmmmm..." About then I'd have to check the standings and see if the Saints got it together, and see if the Bucs collapsed. The Giants came through, 24-14.

SEATTLE(-4)overwashington The thing with going with your gut is that when you have only watched football intermittantly for 3 or 4 years your gut gets rusty, or out of date. Throw in the up and down way teh Redskins have played the last few years, and my gut is more or less worthless, especially when for some reason I never get to see any of their games. On the other hand, following the Premiereship I have witnessed several teams who seem to be invincible at home, Arsenal has lost only once in Emirates Stadium (opened July 2006), Chelsea has not lost at home since 2004, and Liverpool seems to have the biggest home field advantage of all, even if they can't boast such a long streak. I took the 'Hawks because of their impregnable home field. My fear that they might squeak by and only win by 3 was not realized, as the Seahawks roared back after Washington briefly seized a 14-13 lead in the fouth quarter, winning 35-14.

I waited too long to bet on the Jaguars, taking jacksonville(-3)overPITTSBURGH. From what I've heard, Vegas opend with Pittsburgh as a point favorite, but from what I can tell, the online sportsbooks waited to post their lines, because I never saw Jacksonville favored by less than 2. This game killed me, since Jacksonville completely blew a huge lead, squeaking to a 31-29 win. Even Mike Tomlin's boneheaded two-point conversion attempts probably hurt me, since they made overtime impossible, making a push for me equally unlikely. I also didn't get to enjoy the Jaguars losing, as the spiteful side of me is wont to do. Teams that can't cover the spread deserve to suffer at least as much as I do, especially when they blow a lead as huge as this one.

I teased Tennessee-San Diego both ways with the over, which looked like tennessee(+15)overSANDIEGO/OVER and SANDIEGO(-3)overtennessee/OVER. I didn't really trust San Diego to blow out Tennessee like everyone was predicting. Apparently I should have trusted these offenses less, or their defenses more, as San Diego won the lowest scoring game of the weekend, 17-6. Interesting, if only because this score would have been perfect for me if I'd taken the UNDER.

Here are this week's picks.

seattle(+7.5)overGREENBAY*
NEWENGLAND(-13)overjacksonville
sandiego(+10)overINDIANAPOLIS*
nygiants(+7.5)overDALLAS

*Additionally I have teased Green Bay and Indianapolis as sort of a hedge, since I don't really trust Seattle or San Diego to keep the score close, but I dont trust Green Bay or Indy enough to take these inflated spreads. Make sense? This looks like INDY(-3)oversandiego/ GREENBAY(-.5)overseattle. I would consider teasing New England and Jacksonville both with the over, but

a.) I don't trust New England to win by 7, let alone 13. I expect them to either win in a blowout, or come from behind and win by 3 or 4.

b.) I don't trust Jacksonville to lose by less than 19. Do I trust them enough to lose by less than 22? Maybe. See note a.) above.

c.) I don't trust Jacksonville and New England to score enough points (45.5 with the tease) to get the over. 35-10 is still a blowout, and under 45.5. So is 42-3. so is 45-0....

Do I trust these teams to keep the score under 57.5? In a word, NO. Less so than c.)