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Friday, October 17, 2008

Quality over Quantity?

I took mercy on my three readers last week and failed to announce my NFL picks. I also failed to win either of them. I had new england(+6) over SAN DIEGO, and
nygiants(-8) over CLEVELAND. New England lost 30-10, while the Giants lost 35-14. Ouch.

Right now I'm listening to Dave Damechek's podcast to find out if Zach Rosenfield makes any sense. I didn't find last weeks installment, so I don't know how he did. So far they are going on about how crushed he is thatOklahoma lost to Texas, since he's an OU grad.

Zach and Dave both LOVE BYU. Unfortunately, they lost (badly) last night. They also like miami(-3)over DUKE and so do I. I used to do well betting against Duke, but lately they don't suck nearly as much. Still, even a not-so-self-respecting 'Caines team should be able to beat Duke by 4.

Interestingly, according to the podcast BYU opened as a 3 point favorite, but TCU was favored by one by the time of the podcast. Apparently the betting public was on to something, since the Horned Frogs won, 32-7.

If I remember correctly, the Ohio State at Michigan State line opened at OSU by 3.5, and the line has dropped to 3. Of course, I'm too emotionally invested in this game to bet on it either way. I think this is probably State's best chance to beat the Buckeyes in a while. It would have been better to meet them a couple of weeks ago, when their freshman QB was really fresh, but he's still figuring things out. I suspect Ohio State will be much stronger by the end of the year, unless they lose to Michigan State and Penn State, and then give up. Not that Jim Tressel's teams have any quit in them or anything. Just saying.

I waited too long to bet on the early games. The Wisconsin at Iowa line was up to Iowa by 4.5 by game time. I was going to take the Badgers, but at the moment Iowa is up, 14-3, so I'm glad I didn't.

Right now Texas A&M is up on Texas Tech, 16-13. A&M is a 21 point dog, so this game is much better than advertised. Right now even with my new dish I'm not finding any thing better. This game is on twelve different stations. TWELVE. No shit.

Syracuse at South Florida is also on right now, as is New Hmpshire at Northeastern. Or I could gouge out my eyeballs with a fork. Sorry. I've watched nine episodes of Dexter in the last three days. I figured out who his season I nemesis was lat night, about two episodes before they told us. They seemed to be hinting at it pretty hard to me, but my wife was surprised. I might ask around to see if it was as obvious to them as it was to me. Tech is up now, 20-16. The Aggies just had a big play come back, on a holding penalty, I think. It's almost halftime, and the first punt of the game was just delivered by A&M.

Zach advised to take Central Michigan(+2) at Western, and Cental is up right now, 21-14. I would have taken this one. Oh well.

22 seconds left in the half, the Aggies just went up, 23-20. I just checked the Duke line, and Miami is now favored by 3.5. I wonder if Rosenfield moved the line. He took Oklahoma(-16.5) hosting Baylor. The line was up to 17.5 last night, but now it's down to 17, so I'm thinking about it. Around here there is alot of Baylor hype, since freshman quarterback Robert Griffin is from nearby Copperas Cove, and the nearest ESPN Radio station is in Waco. (Baylor is in Waco, if you didn't know. Outside of Texas Waco is probably better known for David Koresh and friends.) I find myself rooting for Baylor just enough to not bet against them.

Judging by the hype, Michigan State-Ohio State is the second biggest game of the day. The biggest is Missouri at Texas. Missouri dropped to about #11 after losing to Oklahoma State, but I still think of them as ranked 3 or 4. Texas, of course, vaulted from #5 to #1 when they beat #1 Oklahoma last week. If the line is any indicator, a ton of money has come in on this game, most of it on Missouri. Texas opened as a six point favorite, but are now favored by only 4.5. I've heard sports radio guys argue for both sides of this one. They either love Missouri's spread offense, or they like Texas' defense and ball control. Since Texas is at home, and I never hear anyone say anything nice about Missouri's defense, I like Texas, but maybe only by 3 or 3.5. Too close to call? I guess you could say that.

I liked Pittsburgh(-3) at Navy, until I looked at their recent results. Now I like Navy. I'll sit this one out. I don't know what to make of Virginia, a 3.5 point home dog to UNC. The Cavs have lost to Duke(!)31-3, and to UConn, 45-10, but more recently beat East Carolina 35-20, and Maryland 31-0. Either of these wins was probably more impressive than anything the 'Heels have done. Virginia hasn't won on the road, or lost at home.

Right now the Cavs are losing at home, 7-0. Michigan State trails Ohio State, 21-0, end of the first quarter. My dish is getting 12 channels of USC-Washington State, and Toledo-Northern Illinois, but no MSU-OSU. I called Pennsyltucky Dave to bitch, and he invited me over, but I passed, unless State starts a roaring comeback.

Oklahoma State leads Baylor, 28-6. I'm trying to figure out why the dish isn't picking up this game. What a crock.

Right now the only NFL game I like is tennessee(-9) over KANSAS CITY, but nine on the road? Tennessee just doesn't score that much.

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