Don't tease Me, Bodog!

I'm going to try to do my pro picks first, then pop back up and do my college picks on top of them. The challenge will be remembering to do this, or cutting and pasting after I forget.

iowa(pick) over PITT Iowa at Pitt is a pick? Really? Pitt beat Buffalo, and lost to Bowling Green. I know the Big Ten sucks right now, but didn't Wisconsin beating Fresno State by 3 mean anything? Iowa may be no Wisconsin, but Pitt is no Fresno State either. Savy? Iowa's record ATS on the road SUCKS, but this isn't exactly a spread, is it?

I'm tempted by Ohio State(-21) vs Troy. The Bucks get to bounce back against the Trojans. These guys win alot (Troy) which has me convinced they are not Dvision I. If the Buckeyes don't make a statement now, when?

Remember how I said the O/U for MSU-ND should be about 54? It's 49. Since I said I would jump on 49.5 or less, here we go....(On the other hand, what was the score last year?
MSU, 38-0?)

Bodog isn't letting me tease ND/OVER and MSU/OVER, so I'm just taking the OVER right now. I may check this closer to game time. They're probably disallowing teases here because everyone is doing one of the bets I mentioned, and they could get killed. When I check later the over will probably be 52, but I'll probably still do it, if I can.

Having checked the college lines, the O/U is red boxed for all of them, so my theory may be a little off. If you are confused about my desired teases here, see my Buffalo-Oakland picks below, which I made a couple of hours ago, like I said I would.

I just took OHIO STATE(-21) over troy. Hope Troy isn't this year's Ap State....


I'm teasing Buffalo and the over, and Buffalo and the under. I really like the Bills at home against the Raiders, but I don't like giving 9.5 with a team that doesn't seem to score that much. I mean, the over/under for this game is 36.5. This works out to a 23-13.5 victory for the Bills, which seems quite reasonable, (other than the 13.5), but I just don't see the Bills scoring more than twenty-six or seven, which doesn't leave much room for error.

I pulled this maneuver off with the Michigan-Ohio State game when they were ranked 1 and 2, two years ago, except I bet on both teams, and the over. I don't even remember the final score, but it went way over, and both teams covered for me. I think OSU was up by 11, and then Michigan cut it to four for the final. With my 13 or 14 point range, I was winning both bets before and after the final TD. Who else can make THAT claim?

Well, my hubris probably just jinxed these picks, or maybe the rest of my season, but what the heck. That game may have been the highlight of my handicapping career. I can probably include my future handicapping career too.

Anyway, I really want Buffalo(-2.5), so I'm teasing this one 7 points, which requires a 13/10 vig. Ouch. That gives me BUFFALO(-2.5) over oakland/UNDER 43.5, and
BUFFALO(-2.5) over oakland OVER 29.5. I guess I gave the under first because I'm expecting the score to be low. If I win just one of these I lose 30% of a unit. If Darren
Mc Fadden decides to reveal that he is this year's Adrian Peterson, I could lose 260% of a unit. Ick.

I'm tempted to tease Tennessee too, but teases are a bad deal, so I'll probably give 4.5. Bill Simmons has Tennessee (-5), so apparently money is coming in on the Texans. While taking the Panthers over the Saints backfired on me 3 years ago, (too bad, because I probably would have kept betting against the Saints the rest of the year if I'd got that one, and I would have cleaned up.

MEMORIAL ALERT--SORRY GUYS

Bill Simmons finished his column with a shout out to David Foster Wallace, who apparently hung himself a couple of days ago. He muted his tribute by calling him DFW, and if I had more than two readers I might refrain from mentioning this author's suicide, which is the most significant one since Hunter S. Thompson, which was the most significant one since Hemmingway. I was already considering reading some Wallace before he did the deed, and I was nearly certain to do so after the event. I consider this an endorsement from Simmons, who hasn't steered me wrong with The Wire or Mad Men. Consider me 120% likely to read him now.

I really feel behind the curve here, kind of like how I didn't get into Punk Rock until 2000. On the other hand, I got into ska about five years before Reel Big Fish and No Doubt pushed it into the mainstream....similarly, I'd read virtually everything Hunter Thompson ever wrote long before his despair overcame him. And I smoked cigars before they became trendy, though I didn't really care for them. I was hip enough in the late '90's to practically be a leading indicator.

THE MEMORIAL THREATCON HAS RETURNED TO GREEN

The Seahawks are favored by ten against the Rams, in a clash of two awful teams. How awful? Would the Romo-Simpson coupling receive more ink on the sports pages than the Hasselbecks right now if the Seahawks were good? Elizabeth Hasselbeck is probably a bigger star than Matt right now, if only among soccer moms and political junkies. I'm trying to figure out if she ends up a talk-radio star, or in the East River. She may be cute, but she needs to remember that that is why she's on the show, since Barb and the other slags are legitimately famous, but not hot, legitimately or otherwise. The cute ones are EXPENDABLE. On the other hand, if not for her comments about the competing First Ladies-in-tow, I wouldn't know who she was, so her big mouth could turn out to have heaved the biggest hail-Mary of the election season.

(Ooops! Just Wikipedia'ed Liz H. Turns out she's married to Matt's little brother Tim, who has been on every NFL East team except the Cowboys, if the Eagles practice squad counts. That expalains alot. Meanwhile, Liz has been offered a job on Fox News, so I wasn't too far off on the talk-radio prediction. Fox News is the picture-book version of talk radio. Take that,
Bill O'Reilly! Not that there's anything wrong with picture books. Or comics. Loved the new Batman....

I hate to do it because of my solidarity with Cleveland Browns fans, but I really like the Ravens at home. How many passes did Braylon Edwards drop last week? The Browns could bounce back, but I'd like their chances more on the shores of Lake Erie than by the inner harbor.
BALTIMORE(-2.5) over cleveland. The vig indicates $$ are coming in on the Browns, but this is probably digruntled money, betting against the former Browns.

I like nyJets(+9) over SAN DIEGO. I know the Chargers will be fired up, but do they really deserve to be a nine point favorite? I'm not giving up on tghe Brett-Jets, especially since I expected last week's Pats victory. I didn't bet it because I would have had to give one instead of getting 2.5, which would reek of indiscipline, even if I shared the bettors' conviction the linesmakers fucked up.

I really want to jump on the Giants' train, because I can totally see these blowouts continuing, but I think I might wait for their spreads to keep growing, then go against them, which was a winning strategy with the Pats for about 9 or 10 weeks last year.

Speaking of which, I should probably think about the Pats giving 13 hosting the 'Fins. The Cards did it, right? (In Miami, at that)....